Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Silver Market Myths: What COMEX Data Actually Shows

• Felix Nikolas Prehn

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0:00 | 34:26

Silver market narratives circulating on social media are examined against institutional data and trading floor experience. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, works through seven widely repeated claims, from the idea that COMEX is about to default to the assertion that 350 paper ounces exist for every physical ounce. He explains the difference between registered and eligible silver, noting that roughly 250 million eligible ounces sit alongside the declining 79 million registered ounces. The real leverage ratio, he argues, is closer to seven times, not 350 to one. He addresses the Shanghai premium, Jane Street's SLV holdings, the tools COMEX can deploy to prevent a squeeze, and the timeline mismatch in the industrial demand thesis. He concludes with a probability matrix: a full delivery failure is estimated at 5 to 10 per cent likelihood, a managed squeeze reaching 80 to 120 dollars at 30 to 50 per cent, a sideways range at 35 to 40 per cent, and a deflationary shock pulling prices below 50 dollars at 10 to 15 per cent.

In this episode:
00:00 Introduction and disclosure of silver ownership
02:54 Registered versus eligible silver on COMEX
07:51 The 350 to 1 paper leverage claim debunked
11:59 Shanghai premium and what it actually signals
15:27 Jane Street as market maker, not directional bet
18:29 Five tools COMEX uses to prevent a squeeze
23:08 Industrial demand timeline versus delivery crisis
26:29 This time is different and the historical pattern

Sources mentioned:
COMEX (CME Group), https://www.cmegroup.com
Shanghai Gold Exchange, https://www.sge.com.cn
Jane Street, https://www.janestreet.com
iShares Silver Trust (SLV), https://www.ishares.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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