Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Gold Price Crash Explained: Margin Hikes, France and China

• Felix Nikolas Prehn

Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.

0:00 | 24:34

Gold prices fell roughly 20 per cent from their all-time highs in a matter of weeks, even as conflict erupted in the Middle East. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how three rapid margin hikes on the COMEX exchange triggered a liquidation cascade that forced smaller traders to sell, while large banks weathered the storm and bought the dip. He examines France's quiet removal of 129 tons of gold from the Federal Reserve and the official explanation he finds unconvincing, alongside German calls to repatriate gold held in New York. The episode also covers a UBS research note from China showing resilient ETF inflows and a new regulatory programme allowing ten major Chinese insurers to allocate up to one per cent of assets to gold. Central banks globally purchased 1,050 tons last year. Felix concludes that the paper price and the physical market are telling very different stories.

In this episode:
00:00 France removed 129 tons of gold from the US Federal Reserve
01:53 Gold fell 20 per cent from highs despite Middle East conflict
02:47 Three COMEX margin hikes in two weeks triggered forced selling
04:13 Turkey sold 60 to 120 tons of gold to defend the lira
08:38 France's official explanation for the gold move questioned
13:54 COMEX paper trading versus physical delivery divergence
17:47 UBS China trip finds strong institutional gold demand
18:55 Chinese insurers authorised to invest up to one per cent in gold

Sources mentioned:
UBS precious metals research note (Joni Teves)
CME Group (COMEX exchange), https://www.cmegroup.com
Banque de France, https://www.banque-france.fr
Deutsche Bundesbank, https://www.bundesbank.de
PICC (People's Insurance Company of China)
China Life Insurance

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

Support the show

👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks 

People on this episode