JPMorgan Market Outlook: Tech Ally And Ceasefire Trades
•Felix Nikolas Prehn
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
0:00
|
15:54
JPMorgan's latest market intelligence note outlines two distinct trading scenarios tied to the Middle East ceasefire and names the sectors and positioning each one favours. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the report's key findings, starting with a 7,200 target for the S&P 500 and a bullish case for large-cap technology stocks driven by expected strong earnings and deeply bearish institutional positioning. The note highlights that hedge fund leverage has fallen sharply from its 12-month high, meaning a resumption of risk appetite could channel significant capital back into equities. Historical data cited in the report show that when positioning is this bearish, the S&P 500 has returned 8.2 per cent over the following three months on average. If the ceasefire collapses, JPMorgan expects oil to rise towards 125 dollars, the dollar to strengthen and energy and defence stocks to outperform while most other sectors decline.
In this episode: 00:00 JPMorgan note and its limited distribution to institutional clients 01:42 S&P 500 target of 7,200 and the bullish case for tech stocks 05:23 Hedge fund leverage drop and what re-leveraging would mean for equities 05:55 Retail sentiment data showing heavy selling and potential for a chase 10:36 Historical 8.2 per cent three-month return when positioning is this bearish 12:31 Bullish list: small caps, discretionary, financials, precious metals miners 17:03 Bearish scenario: oil to 125 dollars, energy and defence stocks favoured 20:35 Airlines and other sectors most vulnerable if the ceasefire fails
Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
JPMorgan note and its limited distribution to institutional clients
S&P 500 target of 7,200 and the bullish case for tech stocks
Hedge fund leverage drop and what re-leveraging would mean for equities
Retail sentiment data showing heavy selling and potential for a chase
Historical 8.2 per cent three-month return when positioning is this bearish
Bullish list: small caps, discretionary, financials, precious metals miners
Bearish scenario: oil to 125 dollars, energy and defence stocks favoured
Airlines and other sectors most vulnerable if the ceasefire fails
Phoenixer and I wasn't going to make this video because I'm on a flight as you can obviously tell, but I was doing some light reading as you dude. JP Morgan's market intelligence report. And it pisses me off again and again that this stuff is not reported the way that it should be because you, a retail investor like what I am now, we don't get the same data, right? JP Morgan writes this note, sends to the institutional clients with lots and lots of money and literally tells them what to do now that there is a ceasefire in the Middle East and also what to do if the ceasefire doesn't hold. It literally includes the exact sectors, even stocks. And I think you deserve to understand it too. And if you agree with me on that, you'll put up with the uh terrible audio, the crappy video footage, and um you're here for the information and the education. And let me know if you agree with that, that you deserve it. Put a deserve in the comments down below. And I'll do one better for you. Actually, I'll put the actual full report into our free community because let's just spread this bloody stuff, right? Um just don't tell anybody that we do that. But yeah, it's down there. There's a link down below in the description for you to see out. So, I've made a couple of notes, just I'm going to run you through them so you really understand what the heck's going on here, including, as I say, literally what JP Morgan is telling the big money to buy and not to buy in both scenarios, you know, when or ceasefire falls apart. We're seeing a bit of both right now. So, let me hit you with some data. First of all, they're targeting and they're predicting a an S&P 500 that hits 7,200, which would be glorious, right? So, they're saying rally is back, baby. But the key sector that they're liking here, and I think this is so important to understand because so many of you, I'm sure, are tech investors, right? If you're tech investor, put tech in the comments. Love to see how many people of you are. And they're saying tech is likely to have a huge rally for two simple reasons. Reason number one is that we are going into earning season and we expect the earnings to be pretty good. And reason number two is that tech's been getting clobbered to death. Like I was going to say baby sealed, but that would be very unPC, but you you get the image during this war, right? And people had questions about AI, is it going to work? All that kind of stuff, right? And therefore, their their share prices dropped pretty significantly. I I set up a fairly contrarian Google position during that time, which uh you know, seems to be coming out of the woods right now. So, we're basically having a combination of everybody hates the sector, but it's tech, it's AI, like use it. I mean, seriously, if you're not using AI right now, like you're you you're not you're missing out. It's just like you're not understanding how powerful this is going to be. So, it's literally a love letter to the Max 7, right? So, the Magnificent 7 stocks when we can look at some specific stocks in just a second. We'll do that together. But, they're basically saying they expect fantastic earnings, better than than they expected. And at the same time, all the institutions are very bearish on these big tech stocks because that's what we've been told for the last couple of weeks and months. And therefore, there is a catch up for those guys to do. And that brings me to point number two here, which is hedge fund leverage. And I know that sounds about as boring as watching paint dry, but they the way a hedge fund operates is that they will borrow money to trade with. They have some of their own money. borrow some money on top like a like a leverage trader basically.>> Uh yes, some garlic bread, please.>> Sorry.>> Thank you.>> Thank you very much. Absolutely.>> Thank you. That was obviously an important interruption. You can't say no to garlic bread. Actually, I give you a secret on airplane food as well and why everybody should be carrying a little sache with some white powder in it when they fly. Explanation on that coming up, too. So, yeah. But seriously, a hedge fund will say have a billion dollars. They have more, but let's say there's a billion dollars and then they'll borrow. Now, sometimes they borrow $100 million like maybe you and me might. I mean, as a percentage of funds, not saying we're borrowing 100 million, but actually a lot of the time they borrow 25 billion if they have 1 billion, you know, or 40 billion if they have 1 billion. Like, they really go to town on the leverage. So, it's a huge huge part of like what they do. And therefore, it has a big impact on the market. And those guys dropped their leverage down very significantly from the last 12 months high. And that means if the market picks up the way we're now expecting if this ceasefire thing holds and and um the straight of moose is is named the straight off uh Trump the almighty which I think is one of the key requirements in the treaty. These hedge funds will buy a ton of stocks specifically tech stocks. Right now, there's an if in there, right? So, you got to take that into account. I'm not a financial adviser. I'm just a guy in a plane. He used to be a banker and also share this with you. But if you actually really want to understand and you're here for like literally what do I buy, don't just follow even the stuff JP Morgan's putting out because it's again going to date, I will do one better for you. I will teach you literally this
Saturday at 9:
00 a.m. Eastern time,
that's 9:00 a.m. New York time, 2:
00 p.m. London, I will teach you Wall Street's very own rules. They have a three-step process. Simple rules have been around for 50 years. Every Wall Street trader gets taught them, but you obviously don't. So, I'm going to teach them to you. It's free. Go to felix/training. Grab yourself a free seat down below and let me know you got a seat just by writing seats in the comment as well and everybody else can see it too. Now, the third part, I think we're on number three. This is what happens when you haven't got structure to a video and you're doing it on a plane. Um, retail, that's you. you are apparently have been feeling a little bit like you know um retail sentiment has been um terrible. You lot have been selling um stocks like seven out of eight days this month. So you've really been gone to town on the whole panic thing near the end of a panic thing. And what does that mean? It means there is again a chance that the retail crowd will start chasing the dip and therefore you're going to get more money pouring into the market. They also use a lot of leverage ETFs and so on which again push up the market quite significantly. But putting all that aside, probably the most important statistic here and again it's just a statistic before I give you the bullish and the bearish list and everything else is when the market is positioned like this very very bearish historically the S&P 500 has delivered an 8.2% per return over the next three months. So in this kind of positioning the following three months were historically an 8.2% up over the next three months. It's JP Morgan data. It's not a promise or that definitely going to happen but it's an interesting one right now for you um if you're you lot living in the good luck of the European Soviet Union. Um similar for you guys European stocks current positioning pretty extreme. You're looking at about 7.7% up over the next three months on average historically. Again historic performance wasn't guaranteed. future performance and all that kind of stuff. But uh maybe that's useful for you lot um who are tuning in from the European Union. Although this video might be prohibited because there are opinions on here which might people may not like. All right then. Um so that was a bit too serious for a joke. Wasn't that a bit serious? Yeah, it's true though, isn't it? A lot of the stuff I say probably is very nonPC. Let's look at the bullish list. JP Morgan's bullish list here and then we look at some individual sectors and stocks here. Right. So they're basically saying we're looking back at the trades that worked very very early in the year. The US dollar will sell off. Now what does that mean? What happens when the dollar sells off? What happens? Gold goes up. Silver goes up typically, right? So how can we play those? Well, we could actually play those with miners. And I'll come back to that in a second. But first of all, you're looking at the stock order. The Russell, the small caps go up first. The NASDAQ goes up second. The S&P goes up first. That's the way JP Morgan sees it. Um, and then we're looking at upside in the sort of discretionary guys like like home builders and we've been in home builders for some months now, but also retailers because you lot will feel more euphoric and you'll go and you know swipe the the plastic or ping a phone which doesn't have quite the same feeling about it. And also financials, they're excited about financials. Banks always report first and if their earnings are good and we expect them to be and we think the that the environment is that the macro mind is going to get better like lower interest rates you know low oil prices all that kind of stuff then we could get a very nice bounce there because again everyone's been selling financials everyone has been hating the banks and and there's a fairly good reason to hate them but uh not in the scenario of you know I want to make money out of it so precious metals they're saying here would likely see a strong rebound as the US dollar bulls back, miners more generally may see a bid on the recent changes to the metals tariffs. That's another big story there. So, how do you then find those kind of stocks? Well, let me let me show you. One second. Okay. So, the Wi-Fi just failed. I'll I'll make a little recording of it. I I'll I'll put it on the screen here. Essentially, you can go to Trade Vision, which is the app that I'm a co-founder of and we've been building the last couple of years. There's a cooly cool AI feature that just about to come out and being rolled out to you guys. And you could literally just type in, hey, give me the make me a watch list of the top 10, you know, largest gold miners or something and it'll just ping them up for you. Uh, and it's a very very cool, very, very fast way of doing that. You can then click through to all the charts, see what's going on there. And if you can't read a chart yet, and you don't know, does that mean it's a good stock? Is it a bad stock? Then again, join me on Saturday. I'll teach you that. If you're complete beginner or if you're more advanced, we teach this to invest in bankers, but also people who've never had a brokerage account in their life. Anybody can learn this in a couple of hours. Now, before you run off, very importantly, write down the bearish list because this ceasefire could flip tomorrow, right? There already missiles flying around and this is not really like peace piece yet. So, let's let's write down what we need on the bearish list. And they're saying if the attacks continue, you know, Israel's bombing Beirut and so on, it would likely mean Saudi production will go offline because the Houthis, which is Iran's sort of last card they haven't played yet, uh, you know, the lunatics in Yemen, apparently not meant to call them lunatics, though they don't like it, but you know, let's call them the lunatics in Yemen. They close the Red Sea. Now the Red Sea is a little bit of water on the left side of the Arabian Peninsula uh that leads up into into Europe, Israel, Egypt, you know, huge huge huge straight again where all the stuff flows through. So if that happens, oil will go back up. Look at the $125. That's kind of what we're looking at. And then then the 150. This is JP Morgan saying it go up because Saudi is the key thing. And there was an attack on the Saudi oil pipeline for example as well just and that means the dollar goes gets stronger which means stocks sell off gold and silver sell off and if you want to buy stocks in that scenario you just buy energy stocks that's really the only place I would go um maybe oil services companies storage pipeline companies those kind of guys still but everything else else is going to get you know clobbered like a as I say baby seal that phrase comes from it's sort of a Wall Street phrase you see it literally in banking reports also said uh this morning oil stocks got clubbed clobbered like a baby. It's an incredibly offensive phrase but I keep reading it in these banking reports. So I blame the lunatics on Wall Street and the hooties at the same sort of type of a mindset apparently. Um and then of course defense companies and fertilizers. So those are the ones and again if you want to find out well what what defense companies what fertilizer stocks just type it in the trade vision. It'll give you a list and you'll know you'll know what you're looking at here. Um, but you would very likely get that $ 1.5 trillion defense budget through. You'd probably get that $200 billion request for defense companies through. So basically in that scenario, everything else goes down. Uh, some things get particularly clobbered. There it is again. Airlines, you know, where we are, because some of them will potentially go out of business, especially the smaller ones if you want to go aggressive on that kind of stuff. But I hope you're starting to see and that's always my my intention here that no matter what the market does, no matter how bad it is and about it looks, there is always an opportunity. And literally join me on Saturday and I'll walk you through literally this week's opportunities and and how we find them. And like last week we had one one sector looked good and what was I think it was waste disposal or something really abstract and I was having a good run. Um and so when people say oh markets can have long periods that suck but not if you know what you're looking for because the way to look at it is that the market is separated say into sectors right 12 sectors and money will move from one to the other. So now money looks to be flowing back into tech and into higher risk things and then maybe into gold and and and gold miners. But if it goes the other way, then the money is going to flow into oil stocks or service companies, um, you know, it's going to flow out of airlines. So, it's the money moving around. And once you really understand that, it changes the way you can take advantage of opportunities because it's not a black and white. It's not like what the mainstream media headlines tell you, oh, it's all terrible. No, there is always a freaking opportunity, especially when we get these big swings. So, in a strange sense, I quite like these strange swings because for me it's an opportunity, but I appreciate for a lot of people it um doesn't feel so good and that's what we're looking to change here. So, do the following. Um download the actual report um Jamie Wong's reports. It's a little bit more convoluted in terms of language. I try to simplify it for you, but might just be interesting to see. And sign up for Saturday. Uh join us there, Felix. training and if you want to dive into some of these stocks and use our cool AI features there in trade vision there is a free trial to that too. Um there's also a if you sign up now you will get the all the AI features as they're getting rolled out in the next week or so you get those for for free basically as part of your subscription whereas if you join us later there will be a higher higher charge for those. So maybe take advantage of that. Just lock in the free trial. Uh that's literally the one risk-free thing you can do right now. And I apologize for the terrible audio and everything else. And yes, I was going to tell you what this um what what this is, right? And why you must travel with this. Not what you think. No, no, no. Don't do drugs, children. Airplane food. That here is always terrible. It is always terrible. It's typically made in some facility that wants to um that hates people and and wants to kill people. So, don't eat it. Bring yourself some boiled, lovely, fresh, organic eggs. So, I get these from Italy. And an egg doesn't taste any good unless you got some salt with it. Right, that's all that is. It also gives you some interesting questions to answer if anybody ever opens your bag. So, I hope you got some value out of this. I hope to see you Saturday and use the links down below. Get better informed. All the best. France just pulled every last ounce of its gold out of America. 129 tons gone like that. And the excuse they gave you is one of the most insulting things a central