Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Gold Sell-Off Explained: What Central Banks Are Buying Now

• Felix Nikolas Prehn

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0:00 | 26:57

Gold just recorded its worst month in thirteen years, falling 12 per cent, yet the largest investment banks remain positive on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through recent research from UBS and Goldman Sachs, explaining that the sell-off was driven by a liquidity squeeze rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Hedge funds sold gold to cover leveraged losses elsewhere, while central banks continued buying for a fifteenth consecutive month. China launched a programme allowing insurance companies to allocate up to 1 per cent of assets to gold, a move UBS says has not yet been fully deployed. The reports cite stagflation risk, a weakening dollar, likely interest rate cuts and rising government deficits as structural supports for the metal. Prehn outlines a three step framework for evaluating any asset: track institutional positioning, watch for contrarian signals when the crowd panic sells, and assess whether the long term trend remains intact.

In this episode:
00:00 Wall Street research notes on gold introduced
00:48 Central banks dumping US debt and buying gold
03:48 Gold drops 12 per cent in its worst month in 13 years
05:00 Hedge fund liquidity squeeze explained
07:39 Turkey gold swap clarified
12:48 UBS and Goldman Sachs research findings
18:13 China insurance programme opens gold allocation
22:19 Three step framework for evaluating assets

Sources mentioned:
UBS, https://www.ubs.com
Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com
World Gold Council, https://www.gold.org
JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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