Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Sulphuric Acid Ban And Dollar Crisis: What Comes Next

• Felix Nikolas Prehn

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0:00 | 25:47

Sulphuric acid may be an obscure commodity, but its sudden disappearance from global markets matters. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how Russia's export ban, following China's earlier cut, removes the two largest suppliers of a chemical essential to fertiliser production. The remaining supply depends on Middle Eastern sulphur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, the same chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world's oil. With crude above one hundred dollars a barrel and Chevron's chief executive stating that price buffers are exhausted, Prehn argues that energy and food inflation will arrive together. He then examines how Washington's sanctions programme is pushing foreign holders away from the dollar, why hedge funds sitting on 2.2 trillion dollars of leveraged treasury positions pose a systemic risk, and why central banks have bought 22 billion dollars of gold in three weeks. He concludes that the Federal Reserve is trapped between defending the bond market and defending the currency, and that the likely outcome is further money printing.

In this episode:
00:00 Russia bans sulphuric acid exports, following China's earlier cut
01:02 Half the world's sulphur transits the Strait of Hormuz
02:02 Oil above one hundred dollars and rising
03:05 Fertiliser shortage threatens food prices
04:05 Chevron CEO says price buffers are exhausted
06:40 Dollar weaponised through sanctions on Iran
10:43 Hedge funds hold 2.2 trillion dollars in leveraged treasury trades
17:53 Fed trapped between bond market and dollar stability

Sources mentioned:
Chevron (CEO remarks on fuel crisis), https://www.chevron.com
US Treasury (Operation Economic Outcast sanctions), https://home.treasury.gov
Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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