Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Financial Repression: How Inflation Is Used To Shrink Debt

• Felix Nikolas Prehn

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0:00 | 22:20

Financial repression is the mechanism by which governments keep interest rates below the rate of inflation, quietly transferring wealth from savers to the state. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the policy from a recent presidential admission that inflation will pay off the national debt very rapidly to a Bank for International Settlements study showing the same method erased 2 to 3 per cent of GDP in debt each year after the Second World War. He sets out why the four conventional options for addressing 40 trillion dollars of US debt, raising taxes, cutting spending, defaulting or debasing the currency, leave only debasement as politically survivable. He examines the widening K-shaped economy, presents an hours of work index now at 341 compared with 100 in 2000, and warns that forcing rates down risks eroding the dollar's reserve status if confidence breaks.

In this episode:
00:00 President states inflation will pay off the debt
02:34 The full quote from the magazine interview
04:11 Treasury secretary says the US can grow out of 40 trillion
05:14 Financial repression defined and explained
06:16 Post-war debt erased by holding rates below inflation
06:46 Four options for 40 trillion and why only one survives
10:41 Why interest rates must be forced below inflation
15:40 Hours of work index at 341 versus 100 in 2000

Sources mentioned:
Time magazine interview with the president
Bank for International Settlements study on financial repression (2011), https://www.bis.org
CNBC interview (2016), https://www.cnbc.com
Washington Post interview, https://www.washingtonpost.com
Alan Greenspan quote on printing money
Federal Reserve wealth distribution data, https://www.federalreserve.gov
Ray Dalio on beautiful deleveraging

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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