Last Year’s Quantum Stock Results

SPEAKER_00 0:00

About a year ago, Winston and I put three stocks in front of you on this very channel. One of them had turned $10,000 into $115,000 had you bought it. And I'm gonna say that number again because I think it deserves it. $115,000 from just 10. Most people work years to save that. Now the second stock that Winston mentioned did 827% gains, and the third at 180%, which sounds rubbish, doesn't it? Terrible pick. And it tells you something about how mad this whole thing got. And then there was a fourth one that I said, I wouldn't buy this right now. I said, look, I like this company, but I'm not touching it until it breaks $20. So I waited. And guess what? It never broke $20. It's sitting at 18 in a bit right now. So if you listened, you didn't lose anything, which honestly is better than most people who jumped in did. Now these were all quantum stocks. And I want to be really clear about something before we go further because I know the reaction. Quantum, oh, here we go, sci-fi nonsense, magic beans, that sort of stuff. The reason those stocks moved is that this is one of the biggest shifts in computing since the uh transistor radio. And the people writing the checks for these stocks are not YouTubers, they're governments. And they're the biggest cloud companies on earth, which brings me to the last three months. The last three months have been the best three months in quantum history. The chief executive of Google went on camera and said quantum today is where artificial intelligence was five years ago. Oracle, three days ago, physically installed a quantum computer inside one of its cloud data centers. And back in May, the American government put about $2 billion into nine of these companies, not as a grant, not as a subsidy, but they bought a piece of them. They took shares. Same thing they did with chips. Same thing it did with the rare earths. So best three months as injuries at ever. So best three months as industry has ever seen, not even close. And the stocks, I and Q is down 2% since that video. D-Wave is up 2%, Reggetti is up 6%. That's it. Three months of the best news quantum computing has ever seen, and the share price has just sat there like this guy is sleeping on the floor. And all of them, every single one is still somewhere between 45 and 70% below where it was last October. Remember, I may first made a video on this last summer. So either the market hasn't noticed, or there's something else going on.

Why Quantum Is Not Sci Fi

SPEAKER_00 2:45

Now I think it's the second one, and I'm going to show you why. Fair warning though, this is going to be, this is going to be a little bit dense. Okay. So I'm going to take you through what actually changed the three quantum stocks I might want to own right now, the one I'm dropping from the list, and the one I told you to wait on and still haven't bought, and then, and this is the bit that matters more than any of the picks. What happened in October last year? That most people who own these stocks still haven't worked out. So there's a lot to cover here, right? So we are going to put a whole research report out there for you. Fully updated. Every company, every number, the charts, it's free. There's a link in the description and it's pinned in the comments, so go go go and grab it. And of course, you should thank Winston for that because even though he's snoozing down there, lazy bugger, you of course did all the hard work. Now, a quick reminder where we were. I'm gonna leave it alone because I'm not here to do, you know, a lap of honor. I'm so great. No. But last summer I wrote a thread. I put a YouTube video out about quantum stocks. Morgan Stanley had just put out a report saying this market could go a hundred times over. And I picked three ways in. Two of them were the obvious ones. The third one was Honeywell, which nobody wanted to talk about because Honeywell is a boring industrial company that makes, you know, thermostats and stuff like that really, really boring. But Honeywell comes back later in this video in a genuine way you might not expect. And then in May this year, I did the full breakdown, again, three stocks again, how much they'd all gone up by, and I spent half of that video warning that the gains were the easy part. Look at this on this screen here. These things are up or were up massive amounts, 800%, 1,000%. And then they're down 45, 50%, almost 70% from the top, which means a lot of people bought them near the high, and a lot of people who bought them early never sold, and they're still sitting there today staring at that great big, ugly red number. Minus 70% down. That really is a kick in the nuts. So the picks worked. And yet most people still ended up out of pocket. And that's the pick nobody wants to talk about. And that is a problem almost every single investor runs into over and over again. It's happened to you, right? If you've ever bought something, watched it go up, and then watched it crash all the way back down, maybe even lost money on it. Put the ticker in the comments down below. Go on, share it, because you're absolutely not the only one. And I think it will help everybody realize this is a common thing. I'm not just a nitwit. No, it is very common. Everybody does it. Now, Winston down here, you have to trust me that he's still down there. He has a solution for that. It's a simple one. It's the selling rule book that Wall Street's been sitting on for the last 50 years. And we're going to give it to you. We're going to run the when to sell training live and free in a way we've never done before. It's at a time that'll work for you if you were in America. It'll work for you or if you were in the Soviet states of Europe or even in the formerly Great Britain. It's probably the last time we're going to do this this year, because nobody teaches this and nobody really wants to learn this. But everybody wants to teach you how to buy, right? But nobody really teaches you when to sell, and people lose an absolute fortune on avoidable mistakes. When we can fix it with you in about an hour or two. So come and join me. Grab yourself a free ticket, no strings attached, at when to sell.org. The link's in the description and it is pinned to the comments down below. There'll be no replay, so don't ask me for one because I know nobody watches them. So,

The Big Three Months Nobody Priced In

SPEAKER_00 6:30

what's happening to quantum right now? Well, Google's chief executive said it out loud, and no, this is not Google's chief executive. He didn't uh stop his Azempic diet and get, you know, a little, a little bit more uh, you know, filled around the cheeks. No, this is a BBC, God forbid, New Tonight reporter that is sort of the um propaganda machine of the British government that they make you pay for if you happen to live there. So he said on camera in an interview, asked about quantum computer, and he says, and I'm quoting, I would say quantum is where AI was five years ago. So why does that matter more than any other announcements? Because of who is saying it. This is the company whose chip, Willow, it's called. I actually know a dog called Willow. Uh, this is a chip called Willow. Uh and this chip of Google's kicked off this whole quantum cycle. So he's not a promoter. He runs one of the four companies on Earth that could actually build this. And he just compared it to the thing that added trillions of dollars to the stock market and made many a banker very, very wealthy, which is of course what we're all here for, right? And if someone had told you that AI was about to do to markets what it's just done, you'd have laughed. You wouldn't have taken it seriously. But listen to this we've got Oracle putting a quantum computer in the cloud, not in the literal cloud, the thing that powers computing around the world. 11th of August, Oracle in Continuum announced a multi-year deal, and the important word in it is physically. They're putting a machine called Helios, 98 trapped iron qubits, third generation, I have no idea what I just said, inside an Oracle Cloud data center in the United States. It's not a simulator, it isn't a research partnership. No, it's the actual hardware sitting in the building next to the graphics cards from NVIDIA. And the preview goes out to developers in the coming months, so it's not live for everybody yet. I'm very important to be honest about that. But there is a detail in that announcement that made me sit up. That machine draws, wait for it up on the screen for you, 60 kilowatts. Now, meaningless gibber, right? But a leading supercomputer draws 16,000 to 39,000 kilowatts. It's a number so big I couldn't get it into a box. So that's a fairly bigly difference, right? Several hundred times bigger. And right now, the single biggest constraint on the entire AL build-out is electricity, yes. Everyone's arguing about power stations, everyone's buying nuclear because Bill told us to. So if you're wondering why a cloud company suddenly cares about quantum, that's a big part of it. It costs almost nothing to run compared to what they've got right now, which is a bunch of Nvidia chips. And Oracle isn't alone. Amazon's got Grackett, Microsoft's got Azure Quantum, IBM's had its own for years. So quantum is quietly turned to something that you can rent by the hour. Like uh, I'm not gonna go there. Uh so the American government, this is item numerous best, they just bought. And this is really underappreciated. It happened in May. $2 billion when it's in nine companies. IBM got a billion because they probably have better lobbyists, sorry, better technology. The Global Foundries 300, and 75 got 75 million. D-Wave, Righetti, and a couple of others got about 100 million each. And it's on the ground. No, the government took ownership of actual shares in these businesses. A minority slice, right? Which is the same thing they've done with uh with the chip companies and then the nuclear stuff and the rare earths and all the stuff the government cares about. So this is strategically important, right? And you might not like the government, or you might like it, I couldn't couldn't care less the money is the thing that matters. And then number four, one of these companies just started making money. Shocking, isn't it? It should be illegal. INQ reported a couple of days ago. I'll show you in the Winston app to give you a little bit more colour on this. Got a terrible score stock, right? Because it's hardly making any money. Look at the revenue growth here. Isn't that just crazy? Absolutely crazy. Three years of cash, so they're not gonna go out of business, you know, immediately. And if you read the earnings flash in here, they absolutely crushed earnings. Now, they still lost money in reality, but the revenues are 287% on the year before, which is pretty impressive, right? Very, very impressive. 40% ahead of what estimates are, huge improvement in like not losing money. Free cash flow is improved. So Winston's take is INQ is growing fast and beating estimates, but it's still burning cash with no profit in size, uh, which is true because they're investing very heavily, right? Which is actually exactly what they should be doing. It's what you want your growth stocks to do. Because just a year ago, when I made that video and you can look it up, it was like, yeah, lovely story, but there's baggage all revenue in any of this, right? Uh, this is from last year, and it was completely true. That's complete bullshit, and he knows that quantum is nowhere near ready, and the current tech might need to be completely overhauled and new methods used, blah, blah, blah. Not even close to being usable anytime, years and billions of dollars to get anywhere. You're one of those happy chaps. Um, that was true a year ago. Now it's not, because these chaps just brought in 80 million in revenue last quarter, which is you know, that's actually real money. So the

What Actually Changed In Quantum

SPEAKER_00 12:06

queer question now is what's actually different now, other than you know, the noise? Well, there are three things: revenue, real money, real order backlog, like almost half a billion dollars, real customers, real invoices. Ownership's different. The government now owns some of the stuff, which is a pretty good underwriter. And Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM, they're now distributing the product. So you can now buy it. IT departments are start putting it in their budgets. Very, very different conversations from the research stage we're in in a year ago. Is it expensive? Yes, it's still massively expensive. Is it loss making? Absolutely. Could you lose half your money in the sector in eight weeks? Yes, it's happened. I show you it happened about in about four minutes. I'll show you it happening in about four minutes. But the no progress thing is no longer true. So you want to be bearish. The honest version is it's priced ahead of itself, which is fair. But that's a timing and a sizing question, a risk management question. It's no longer, this is just never gonna work. And there are two, and I'll be gonna get into the stocks in a second, but I think this is important because very few people understand this, including me. Um, people think that these chips are hopeless and incorrect. And yes, they're fragile and they get things wrong constantly, just like AI. And historically, the faster, the bigger you made the chip, the worse it was. You got more and more nonsense, right? But what Google has showed us with Willow, who's a lovely black Labrador in my mind, um, is that you make the chip bigger and the error rate actually goes down. So each time they scale it up, the error rate fell very significantly. There's an engineering problem there, and engineers are gonna solve it. And this is what just broke in the last few weeks and got basically no coverage. There is a lab called HRL. It got 18 qubits running at an error rate of about 0.02%, which is superb, as the French would say. Um, and they use spin qubits. Again, I have no idea what that means. And then IBM went and bought HRL, which tells you it's pretty good. These spin qubits, I'm told, they matter. They are made on ordinary semiconductor equipment, the same machines that make you know the stuff in your phone. Everything else in quantum needs some you know exotic uh hardware in a fridge colder than deep space, uh, and just insanely difficult to do. These spin qubits could be manufactured quite easily, quite cheaply. And it changes it from a science experiment to something you can actually scale, which is really the point I keep coming back to. And I said this in my thread literally last summer in the YouTube video. So you don't need to understand qubit and quantum. You need to understand who owns the pipes. So step back for a second.

The Quiet Breakthrough On Error Rates

SPEAKER_00 14:57

The whole quantum computing market is forecast to hit 850 billion with a B, Biden B dollars. We do miss the gaffes, don't we? Anyway, and again, it sounds like a silly number, right? So it's basically about 30% growth a year. Every year for 15 years. If your money compounds at 30% a year, you end up richer than uh, you know, Bill the uh marvelous, wonderful, and great gates. So this is not a dot-com bubble. It's a government-backed, enormous tech company-backed, essentially unlimited money-backed, wonderful new technology. Quantum computing is the future. You may quote me on that and throw egg in my face. Which means the question is not if quantum computing is going to be huge, uh, the question is how do you invest in it without getting your face ripped off? Because that's what happened to people who invested in it last year. Now, first of all, join me live on Saturday and I'll teach you how not to get your face ripped off from any stock ever again. Very, very simple rules, how we can avoid big losses, how we can lock in gains rather than giving it back to the buggers on Wall Street. Now, before we get into the stocks, I'm not a registered financial advisor, I don't give financial advice, I share my thoughts, my research. You have to decide what you do with that. So you read it, pull it apart, look in the holes in it, please disagree with me. Because those gains I told you about, the thousand percent, right? That's one part of it. But it then fell 70%. So you put 10k into it, you know what happened? You went to 115,000, you went back down to 51,000. And that still sounds pretty good. But of course, the problem is most people bought near the top and they're actually now down 70% because people get into these things too late because again, they got no rules on that. And then I get really lovely uh, you know, abusive comments on YouTube, which is not particularly fun. Yeah. So remember this chart and don't be the guy who's down 40, 50, 60, 70% in your stocks, or girl, if if any are watching, um, because this is what the chart looked like. We had a beautiful rally up, and then we had a beautiful collapse down. And guess what? Wall Street makes money in both directions, your broker makes money in both directions, they don't care. So the stock picks from last year were right. The gains were real, but somewhere between buying and holding, something went terribly wrong, right? And it's something that happens to everybody all the freaking time. They didn't have an exit plan, they didn't know when to sell, they were just excited. They watched life-changing money appear on their screen instead of locking it in and actually changing their life, they got greedy, they held. And greedy might actually be the wrong word here. It's a bit unfair. They just didn't know what to do. And I think it's a fair description of it. So, like I mentioned at the top, come and learn Wall Street rules for when to sell. WhentoSell.org. That's how easy it is to remember. It's down below. And it's gonna be the last time we run this probably this year. It's completely free. Get yourself a ticket. It's live on Zoom. Be there, take notes and learn. Because this is avoidable. You never ever need to have a lost out big again. That's my promise to you. That's what I believe we can change in an hour or two together. And this works, by the way, if you're a trader or investor, it's it's it's it's all the same

The Adoption Curve And October’s Peak

SPEAKER_00 18:16

stuff. But let's talk about the opportunity, which is what you're here for, right? We managed to uh dribble on for a fairly long period until we got to the opportunity. So if you're still here, well done. Um, but this is honestly the fun part. These stocks are still very much in play. The story isn't over. If anything, the story just got started. So let me walk you through them each one by one. But let me show you one picture. And it's called an adoption curve, and it explains everything in one go. Here's what happens New technology arrives, everyone gets wildly overexcited, prices go absolutely nuts, and then it crashes back down really hard. 70, 80 percent, and everyone says, this technology is dead, I'm never buying it again, and they're gonna go and do the same thing again with the next thing. It's basically sending your hard-earned money to the lovies on Wall Street. And then quietly, while no one is really watching, the actual thing gets built, the technology, and it ends up being far, far bigger than the actual mania. And it tends to go up far, far more than anybody ever thought. Railways did this, the internet did this. The internet crash, by the way, was minus 90%, right? The internet still runs the world. So October last year was the top of the mania here. And right now we're in the bit sort of, in my humble opinion, we're we're somewhere here, right? Where the news is good, but nobody cares because everyone remembers the pain of the bubble bursting. And it's a bit dull to own, right? And it's brutal to sit through because nothing happens, and then you start thinking, oh, maybe I should just sell it and go buy something exciting. And that's usually exactly what we don't want to do. So

A New Three Tier Investing Framework

SPEAKER_00 20:00

I've changed my approach to how I'm considering to invest in quantum. In May, I gave you three pure plays, lottery tickets, effectively, and I called them that. And they were the right chords for that moment, but the moment has changed, in my opinion. Because the money is moved from the story to the plumbing. So I'm doing it in three tiers now. I'm gonna look at safety first. Tier one. Boring. Uh, picks and shovels. We have who? Who do we have? IBM. Yes. It's sort of the ATT of the technology world, right? Couldn't get any dollar. They got a billion dollars from the government, and they're putting a billion of their own money into quantum, and that's going into a standalone company building a 300 millimeter quantum wafer factory in Albany. I don't know what that means, but I know Albany's in New York. Uh so a wafer fab, what is it? It's um it's a factory, not a lab, it's a factory. So this is going to be manufactured at scale, and the American government said, ya. And then IBM just bought a little thing called HRL, I mentioned it at the top. So they got the manufacturing route, and they've bought the tech that suits a manufacturing route. So they're gonna build a machine called Starlink, not Starlink, just as a G at the end, very confusing, very poorly named, in my humble opinion. But it's the first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer, and they're gonna put that together by 2029, which I know it sounds far away. But from a company that ships things, well, there are just not many of these in the in the industry, right? IBM shares are sitting below their June highs. We're gonna have a quick look at IBM in here and the Winston Up. By the way, if you want to play with the Winston up and get all the same data I look at, there's a month-long free trial down below. So stock, yeah, got hit pretty hard, right? Donald sold it. Profit taker, I imagine. Insiders are buying, which is kind of interesting. Not a huge amount, but rare insiders buy, quite frankly. They mostly sell because they get paid. Shares and they're spending a huge amount on RD to get really, really good on this. And they're not going to run out of cash because they generate more cash than they spend. So it's kind of a bit of a bit of a safe play for the whole world. Quantum world. Now, safe, of course, is the wrong word. There's risk with everything. You can lose your money in every single investment. The second one is Google. Google's chip, Willow started this. The Google boss is the one who said quantum is where I where AI was five years ago. And you get Google. Stock's still down somewhat. I actually own Google. I should say actually most people own Google for an index fund, but I actually own it directly. El Presidente has sold it, which doesn't really mean all that much. No insider buys, mostly sales, which is what you would expect. But revenue growth is accelerating, profit growth is massively accelerating, and they're spending a huge amount on research. And yes, they're burning a bit of money, but they still have 370 billion cash. So I think there'll be uh everything's gonna be all right. If you know that song, put it in the comment down below. And then we got probably my favorite thing uh uh in the whole video, and maybe a little embarrassing in the last video. In July, I talked about three quantum plays, two obvious ones, and Honeywell. Why? And Honeywell, I was like, my Honeywell is idiotic. Well, they have a majority stake in something called quantinuum. Quantinuum. Uh and and you basically could buy a big, dull, profitable industrial company, and you got the quantum business tucked inside it sort of for free, right? But you still owned a proper business. So I thought it was kind of a sensible, um, lower risk play, which is, I think, always the better way to go. And yeah, the stocks up somewhat, pretty, pretty volatile, pretty, pretty up and down, if you ask me. But last earnings were genuinely quite good. They did better than the market was expecting. Um, big, big beat on revenue and so on. So it actually looks like a unglamorous, I grant you, but you know, decent place to be. It's better than the 70% kick in the nuts that everybody else got, right? And this is the stuff that Oracle just installed inside of its cloud systems, right? And then we have tier two, and these are the quantum companies that are pure place, but have revenue. So

Pure Plays Picks And One Demotion

SPEAKER_00 24:13

you can own them, but you've got to position size it right. You're gonna have really tight rules on around selling, you know, risk management, uh, which is really, really important. So they brought in 80 million in one quarter, which is pretty good, huge, huge increase. Almost a $500 million backlog and orders, which again is also pretty big. Half the business is now international, 60% is commercial rather than government. So they're kind of spreading, spreading their wings, a lot healthier, healthier than it used to be. But they're still losing a lot of money. Uh, I want to be very, very clear with that. That's very important to understand. That's why it's risky. And I should actually mention Righetti, also, sorry, I and Q. Um, they just bought Skywater, which is a photonics business. Uh, sorry, that's another one. Nexus, the photonics business that they picked up. Um, essentially, they're buying their own manufacturing. Now, Skywater is a chip foundry, so they make chips. So they're integrating the business, sort of the the Tesla idea of bring it all in-house, and that way you can really control it and you can you can make it better and faster than everybody else. Next we have Rigetti, which is doing all right. I mean, revenue is growing a little bit, margins are turning positive. They're sort of getting close to break-even, which is usually where the market starts liking these kinds of businesses more. They also own their own FAP, their manufacturing, uh, they picked up 100 million from the government, they've got a deal with the in the UK or in India, a partnership with Qanta in Taiwan. Uh and I said in May, this is an interesting one, but I would only want to own it if it exceeds a certain share price. If I where's my share price stock chart? Someone stole it my stock chart. So I said after this, after this collapse here, that we want to exceed sort of about $20-ish dollars or thereabouts. And I'm still of that view that I still think this is a very early thing to buy. It's very risky at this particular point. Could work out well, of course, but it's definitely a very risky play to do. We want to find this kind of a setup here that we had in September 2025. That's the winning setup. This at the moment doesn't quite look like one yet, uh, but we might get it with a little bit of patience. Uh so I'm a bit cautious on Riggeti right now. And then we have tier three, like the lottery tickets of 2026. Like 2025, we had you know Reghetti and then these guys' lottery tickets. They've now grown up a little bit. So tier three is now the real spec of the staff, the the you know, to the moon shot, and so on. And I give you two candidates, and you can pick, and you might as well pick this is too risky for me, which would be a very, very good decision. Uh, the first one is inflexion. Uh, INFQ is the ticker. They also got 100 million from the government, different technology. They make something called, well, neutral atoms, and they also have a quantum sensing business, which is navigation and timing, and that has defense customers who buy things now rather than in 2029. Uh, they have a lot of cash, 400 million. And then we have Xanadu, um XNDUs to take up. And that's this is a photonic pure play, the first one that's actually listed, uh listed only in March this year, revenue quadrupled. Uh, photonics is sort of the um wrong said room temperature route. So if it works, it's fantastic. Um, if it doesn't, well, it's terrible. And so position sizing is everything. Um, if you put something in these very high risk, you're gonna lose most of it. So you want to be very, very, very small if you want to buy this sort of thing, in my humble opinion. Uh, and then there's one that I'm demoting, and it's called D-Wave, QBTS. I talked a lot about that in May. The bull case is still there, yeah. Commercial production and and so on. Um, and they sell solve something called annealing, which sounds like some terrible medical procedure. Uh-uh, and and yeah, so the stock's up 2% in three months, um, in the best news cycle you ever had. Um so owning it isn't isn't daft, it's just no longer one of my topics. And I'd rather tell you that than quietly, you know, stop mentioning it. But everything I just told you, and if you're still listening, congratulations. Um, that's more than probably 90% of people, because I did go on quite a lot, but there's a lot of stuff to cover here, I think, as you can see.

The Real Skill Is Knowing When To Sell

SPEAKER_00 28:23

The moment you buy a stock, you need to know when you're selling it. First rule as a trader, first rule as a banker, first rule I ever got taught. So I could literally hand you a stock today that could go up 10x tomorrow, and I can tell you that most people watching this would still lose money on it. And it's not an intelligence question or a question of money or any of that, even experience. It's a question of skill, of rules. So learn the rules. It's far more important than knowing everything there is to know about quantum. Definitely. So come and join us this Saturday, when to sell.org. It is free, it'll be fun, you can ask me questions, it'll be live, and all you gotta do is show up for yourself. So you're gonna show up for yourself, right? Show up in the comments down below if you know someone who might be struggling with risk management, with when to sell, with taking profits, and who's always a bit well, they either sell too early or they sell too late, right? There's really only two ways of doing it. If you know someone like that, share this video or the linkwhentoSell.org with them. Just put it on your social media, and the more people we can help, the better of an impact we make. Uh, the happier I am, and the the happier Winston is down there who's enjoying the air con. I thank you for watching, and I wish you all the best.