Six Headlines Become One Machine

SPEAKER_00 0:00

America just started secretly printing dollars to buy its own debt back from the Japanese. And they gave it a really boring name so you wouldn't panic. And I wasn't gonna make this video because I was literally just gonna go take this guy to the beach because it's a heat wave here. But I just saw six things that just happened this week, and I put them next to each other as I do with my research, and it kind of hit me that these are not six stories. It is actually just one great big freaking plan. And of course, mainstream media was telling you the wrong story or no story at all. They're calling it a record market. And I think you deserve the full story. So here it is, as quickly as humanly possible, because this guy really does want to go to the beach, don't you? So item number one, the US is printing dollars to quietly soak up the debt that Japan is dumping. Item number two, Warren Buffett just sold 285 billion of Japanese bonds just a few days before Japan's new debt numbers come out. Item number three, Goldman Sachs, the bankers with the fluffy hearts, you know, the trading floors are full of kittens, those kind of people. They just admitted that half of big tech's record profits are, well, made up is what I would call it. And number four, US stocks are now the most expensive they've been since 1929. And number five, the AI build out everyone's betting on is physically impossible to POW. And then six, history says a lot of people are about to lose almost everything. Holding names that they trust, good stocks, they're gonna, you know, fall apart. So you've got six of them. Same week. And some of you might think that's all a coincidence, it's all fine, this time it's different. And that's of course entirely up to you. I admire your uh innocence. So I'm not pointing fingers at anyone, I'm not saying this is uh, you know, a conspiracy. Um of course, everybody on Wall Street is an upstanding member of uh, you know, their private members' club. Uh, but if you own a 401k or maybe just an index fund or tech stocks, or basically any US stocks, this is your money they're playing with. So stay with me for a few minutes because at the end of this, you will see the whole machine and you know exactly what to

Who Felix Is And Why Trust

SPEAKER_00 2:16

do about it. This video is not here to scare you. If you're wondering who the heck I am, uh, my name is Felix. I'm a former investment banker, uh, you know, one of those greedy buggers who retired early. And I've since sought help, professional help. So we started the GOAT Academy to give back and teach people the actual rules of Wall Street. And of course, Winston here is the head of our research. And the other thing I'd like you to know about us is that we don't do any sponsors. Nobody's ever paying me to say anything, which means I can say whatever the heck I want, which is the way I like it. And I'm also gonna cover a lot of stuff here. Literally, there's a lot going on here, like uh six stuff, six things happening at the same time. So I'm gonna give you a full free report, every chart, every number. You can read it slowly, check it yourself, uh credit card or anything. It's just free. At pedixfriends.org slash AI bubble. Link is in the description down below. Okay, so here it goes. Um, as quickly as possible, as simply as possible, I'm gonna show you uh six things, as they say in Cantonese, uh, and how they connect. First, what America is really doing with Japan's debt and why that quietly props up your portfolio in an artificial way. Second, why the greatest investor alive just headed for the exit. I actually interviewed an Oyak, the great investor, a few days ago. It's on the on the channel. Interesting what he has to say. Um, and the one that should bother you the most is that half of all the record profits everyone is celebrating on Wall Street and in the media, well, they're not real. And then I'll show you why this market is actually, well, how expensive it really is, and why the AI dream runs into a wall made of physics. And then finally, what happens to ordinary people, as in you and me, uh, who show up last. So stick with me all the way because the last two minutes are the difference between watching this happen and doing something about it. And I know half of you are now skipping to the last two minutes. Uh, you're gonna miss obviously how this works together. So let's start with one item

Japan Sells Treasuries And The Fed Steps In

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here. Um, because this is the whole plan in a single move. Japan is the biggest foreign bugger, sorry, foreign owner of American debt on the planet. For decades, they've parked their savings in US debt. And when your biggest lender is quietly happy, everything is calm. The problem is Japan is now selling. And here is why that's very dangerous. When a seller that size dumps your debt, the price of those bonds falls. When the price of bonds falls, interest rates go up at home in the US. Higher interest rates hit everything: your mortgage, government's own payments, the stock market, because suddenly you have a boring safe bond that pays you, you know, 5, 6, 7%. And then people don't need to gamble anymore on the latest AI stock. So a big visible dump by Japan would be a flashing red light for the whole world. So what did the US do? They made sure you never see the red light. Look at what I've got on the screen here. The US government is printing dollars, the Fed is printing dollars, and they're buying their own debt from the Japanese. So the Japanese are in effect dumping US debt, but the US is managing the dump by printing new money and buying the debt itself, putting it on the Fed's balance sheet. So it doesn't hit the front pages because it's a bit complex and a bit boring. Now the clever people will jump in and say, Felix, that's not really money printing. It is a repurchase agreement. The Fed is only lending Japan the money in return for temporarily holding bonds. Yeah, well, call it whatever you like. They also said that uh inflation was transitory uh after COVID, still hasn't gone back down. But it doesn't really matter what you call it. Billions of brand new dollars are flooding into the system, and we just invented a polite word for the photocopy, right? So here's the part that matters to you. The bit that the media doesn't connect. The flood of cheap money doesn't just sit there. It's the fuel that's been holding US stocks up. When money is cheap and everywhere, it has to go somewhere, and for years it's gone into stocks, which is a big reason your index fund kept climbing. So the plan is simple: keep printing money, keep the money cheap, keep the party going, and nobody looks closely at what. It's kind of clever. It's also, and I mean this with uh, well, it's just deeply desperate. And desperate people do desperate things, and desperate things tend to end with a bang, exactly, not with

Why Buffett Selling Matters Now

SPEAKER_00 6:59

a whisper. So this brings me to item numero 2. While the government is busy hiding the dump, I want you to look at what the single smartest investor alive is quietly doing. Warren the Buffett just sold $285 billion of Japanese bonds, and the timing is kind of interesting. He did it right before Japan announced its new debt figures. So think about who this is. This is the man whose entire brand is never bet against America. Buying holds forever, because he never does that actually. He holds for seven years on average. That's kind of a myth. And he says, be greedy when others are fearful. This is the man ordinary investors quote to justify never selling anything. And that same man just cleared 285 billion off the table the exact week bad numbers were coming. And maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's just the greatest investor of the last hundred years. Maybe he just felt like a change. Maybe the man who has more and better information than almost anybody alive looked at the same machine I'm showing you, Japan selling, America printing to cover it, and decided he'd much rather be the one holding the door handle than the one holding the back. So don't just listen to what the smart money says on television, right? Watch what the money actually does. And right now the smartest money in the world is heading for the door before you hear about it. So when the person at the front of the room stops, you know, the clapping, well, you don't need them to announce it. You don't need to go on television, you just notice their behavior. And that's exactly what I do. I look at money flows. That's all I look at. I don't care about the companies or the products or the CEOs. I just care about what the money is doing. So let me ask you something. And I want you to actually answer this in the comments. Have you ever bought a stock that went up a lot, like 30%, 50%, 80%, 100%? And then you held it and you watched it go all the way back down, maybe to where you started, maybe to zero, or maybe to minus something, right? Just be honest and put that stock in the comments right now. If you can't remember, just say yes. And because I promise you that you're not alone, and I promise you you're not the only one. And I think it'd be useful for everyone to see just how many people experience that. Because here's the trap, and it's the whole reason I make these videos.

The Trap Of Paper Gains

SPEAKER_00 9:26

You can be completely right about everything I'm showing you to them, literally. You could be right about Japan, you could be right that it's a bubble, you could be right about every single chart I'm going to show you and really understand it, and you could still lose money. In fact, most people will. Over the last few years, the the big winners went up a thousand percent, you know, 10x and more. And most of the people who owned them, guess what? A lot of them still ended up poorer. Not because they picked wrong, because they had no plan for actually getting out. The life-changing gain showed up on the screen. They froze, they told themselves it'll keep going, and then they watched it hand itself right back to the market and make some lovey on Wall Street rich. You know, they're one of these twits with the little midtown jackets. And that is the mistake that kills investors every single cycle. And it's completely avoidable. Wall Street has had a selling rule book for 50 years. I know that because my oldest mentor learned it 50 years ago. He just passed away, actually, uh, which is very, very sad. But he was an amazing guy, Jerry. Uh, so the problem is that Wall Street has had these rules for 50 years, but it just never gave it to you. And of course, you never, never learned them, right? And nobody ever taught it to you because there's basically no financial education. You were handed buy and hold and uh stay the course, and you are left to figure out the hardest part, the getting out, the actually making a profit on your own. So I want to fix that one. So Winston and I are going to run one free life session where I will hand you that selling rule book. You learn exactly when to take profits, when to cut losses, and how to never watch that big, beautiful, shiny gain turn back into a loss. Long-term investors or momentum traders, no matter what you are, it works the same way. So you can join us if you go to when to sell.org, grab your free ticket, show up live, and bring your questions. There'll be no replay. Don't ask me for one because I know you're not going to learn from a replay of two hours because you won't watch it. And I know you think you will, but I'm telling you you won't because I've done this once or twice. And I know I sound like a pompous twitch. Uh, that's also okay if you agree with that, right? Pompous in the chat. So you got your ticket? Yeah, good. All right. So the next four things I'm going to show you are exactly why knowing when to sell is about to matter more than anything that you could possibly be

How Big Tech Inflates Profit Numbers

SPEAKER_00 11:52

buying. Every day the market tells you profits are at record highs in the US. It's the number that the whole bull case rests on. Well, Goldman Sachs, and they know a thing or two about the market, they just quietly admitted that number is only half true. And they buried it deep in a report where they're rather hoping you wouldn't look. So let me walk you through the chart because it's simple once you see it. The headline basically says profits for the market are growing at like almost 30%. Sounds spectacular, right? Absolutely wonderful. But look at what happens when you take out one thing called other income. Ordinary companies are growing at 13%, one three. So what's the magical other income that doubles our profits? A handful, rather, of big tech giants, Amazon, Google, Microsoft. They made investments into things like OpenAI and Anthropic. And they just decided that those investments were now worth more. So on paper, they said it's worth 50 billion. We actually think it's now worth 100 billion. Let's book an extra 50 billion profit, which is the difference, right? Now it means they didn't sell anything. It means they don't have a better product. It just means that they um made up a number. And it works beautifully in one direction. The trouble is, it works exactly as beautifully in the other direction, too. So when those paper gains reverse, say people realize that yes, AI is wonderful, but uh ultimately if you're a big company you're using a lot of AI, you're gonna use the cheapest model imaginable, and you don't really care whether it's open AI or anthropic or you know, you could run it on your own computers, actually. They're open source models, and therefore, where are the profits gonna come from for these gaps? When that happens, the whole story reverses. So, yes, the media is technically correct. Profits have never been higher, but well, people forget to mention it's basically just people making up profits. And pretty much all the other profit gains are uh semiconductors, chips, which is a cyclical business, by the way. So margins go up when there's a lot of demand, and then margins go down as people have bought all the chips that they wanted to buy for a while. But of course, it's not gonna happen this time because this time's different, right? So, number

Valuations Near Historic Extremes

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four. Well, here's a lovely little chart from the Financial Times. And let me explain what you're looking at here. Because it's important and it's also very, very, very simple at the same time. This is a valuation, valuation measure. Uh less, less uh liquor in the morning, right, Winston? Um, and all it really asks is how many years of a company's profits are you paying to own one share? So if a share earns you, let me get a pen, one dollar basically profit, say per share, and you are paying ten dollars for the share, well, the it's gonna take you 10 years, right? 10 years to get that money back. Now, right now we're sitting at 40. 40. So it takes 40 years for your share to make the money back that you paid for it. You you with me on this? You with me on this? Put a put a put a put a with me uh in the comments down below. And um, have we ever been higher? Well, yes, the dot-com bubble, the very, very, very top of it. Uh, but pretty close to that, by the way. So it's the second most expensive valuation in the entire history of the American stock market, all time, like more expensive than 1929. Um, and and 1929 was, you know, people jumping out of windows. So the only single time Americans have ever paid more for a dollar of corporate profits than they're paying right now was the dot-com bubble in the year 2000. That's when I started investing. It's a glorious time. Um, and um, well, I think you probably remember how calm and prosperous the following years after 2000 were, right? And how good that was to everybody's pension fund. 2008, we've exceeded, and you remember how relaxing that was, right? We are miles and miles above what is normal. To be fair, expensive does not mean you've got gonna crash tomorrow. Bubbles can get more expensive than they usually do, right up until the top. And that's what makes them so much fun on the way up and so very, very painful on the way down. But what expensive means is this: it means there is very, very little room left above you, and there's a very, very, very long way down below you. So you're being asked to pay 1929 prices and then some for the privilege of climbing aboard for the last stretch of the ride, right? So when you overpay this much, history is brutally consistent about what your returns look like over the following years, and it is not a pretty story. But of course, someone's gonna write something in the comments that'll be something like, uh, but it's different. AI is incredible, it's making everything uh glorious and so on. And yes, AI is incredible, it is real. I use it every single day across my businesses, and basically we'll only hire people

AI Data Centers Meet The Power Grid

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who use it. But this is where the beautiful AI dream walks into a physical limit, and it is called the power grid. Because you can't run a data center on a story, you run it on electricity, right? And while we believe that electricity needs to be made in power plants, now we're going really loonily conspiratorial, aren't we? What else will you get power from? Well, just watch some YouTube videos on that one. We need enormous physical amounts of electricity, and we've forgotten how electricity was created. So let's do the actual math here because this little screenshot, and it's a little bit small, it lays it out quite nicely, and it's almost funny. So I made it bigger for you because the article was a bit small. Texas, right? The great state of Texas. I'd yet to go, I'd love to go. If you're in Texas, let me know where I should go. Texas has requests for 474 gigawatts of new electricity demand, and it's all data centers. Now, that number means nothing to you and me, right? Because we have friends and we're not complete nerds. Well, at least you're not. Um now, Texas's all-time record demand for electricity, the single hottest day ever, every air conditioner in the state running flat out, right? Uh, it was 91 gigawatts. So on a normal day, it's sort of 40 to 80. And people are saying, okay, the highest you ever had was 91, but we want 474, about five times their all-time record, just to feed AI. So it is physically impossible to do this with the grid that exists, you know, those pilots. Which is exactly why the governor of Texas, smart chap, hit the brakes and frozen unit data center rollouts. And it's not just Texas. Morgan Stanley, who are the um bankers known for um harboring um small bunny rabbits, uh, their rescues, and they look after them in the office. That's the main business. And then they take all their profits and they fund orphanages with it and they feed the needy. Um, you know, they're really good people, obviously, you know, Wall Street bankers. Uh, well, they're saying the United States is massively, massively short of power. Um, and to give you an idea how much, it is about a hundred plants, you know, sort of bunny rabbit plants um that uh Bill Gates uh called green, and that the whole carbon neutral thing made green, ESG-friendly, good for the planet. You should really put one in your backyard because they're nuclear plants, and and nuclear is the cleanest energy sauce what you have. Uh now, no one's gonna build a hundred spare nuclear plants um uh because it's just not gonna happen. Nuclear plants to build in the US take like 20 or 30 years. Even if you really fast track that, it would still take you 10 or 15 years to do it, right? Um, and Microsoft, of course, bought uh uh the the the three-mile or three-island or whatever it's called nuclear plant because it was so clean and wonderful and it was so good for the children. I shall never mention Bill Gates and children the same sentence because that would not be appropriate. But most of these data centers that we're planning to buy, well, we can't plug them in. There's nothing to plug them into. Uh so these companies are spending fortunes today on revenue they're promising will show up years from now, but the power to run it, run the system, run the product, it doesn't exist. So you've got the sky high spending, sky high expectations, sky high valuations, all resting on electricity, nobody's built yet. The power grid does not care that anybody promised on these earnings calls. Physics doesn't do hype. Now, Elon, of course, might solve the problem by moving all the data centers into space, because in space energy is rather abundant because you're closer to the sun. By the way, I was told that it is not cold in space, which is weird. Uh, but apparently it's it is very cold in space, but it doesn't cool anything because we're lacking gravity, something like that. Uh, any any any any real super note in the comments down below, please explain. Because I somebody had explained it to me. Actually, two people had, and I'd forgotten it. It was in one ear, out the other.

The Snapchat Chart And The Sell Rule

SPEAKER_00 21:07

What I do remember though is item number six. And this isn't about governments or grids or physics or Elon, it's about you sitting there holding a stock you believe in, right? So let me show you the most honest chart on the internet. If you had put $10,000 into Snapchat five years ago. Five years ago, not some crazy time, it's five years ago. Right now, you would have $682. And um, you know, it's a dinner for two in New York, um, with half a bottle of wine, probably. And there's the part I need you to hear. Snapchat is not some crazy company. It isn't some fraud, right? It's a real famous household name company. Everybody knows it, everybody used it apparently. So I'm Front page of newspapers, analysts love it. People were genuinely excited to own Snapchat, the next Facebook, and it still killed 93% off all money. And notice how it did it. Look at that chart. It didn't just completely collapse overnight to zero. No, that would have made the news. It just bled slowly and gradually and gradually down. And the whole way down, the people holding it kept telling themselves the same three words that have destroyed more wealth than in any other words in history. It'll come back. DCA into it. Buy a little more as it's getting cheaper. So they didn't sell when they were down like 20% or even 40% or 80% or whatever. No, they held on until it's too late to sell. So they rode a famous company all the way down to basically nothing. This isn't new. This has happened to the darlings of the dot com era, household names everybody was certain about, but never came back. It happens in every pub. Most of the hot names don't go to a clean, dramatic zero. They just sort of bleed quietly for years, but everyone waits to get back to zero. And in this market, half of the profits are made up. Valuations are at 90-29 levels. AI promises something that the grid cannot physically do. Guess what? A lot of ordinary people are going to end up holding the next snapchat. That's just the logic, it's the maths, it's the pattern. The only thing, the only thing that decides whether that person is you is whether you know when to get out. Which is exactly why I keep hammering on that one skill. It's far more important than finding a great stock. So let me hammer this home. Go to when2.org, get yourself a free ticket. And remember the whole machine. Japan is dumping American debt. America is printing money to hide it from you. That cheap money is propping up stocks. The smartest investor in the world is heading for the exit. Half of the record profits everyone's celebrating are just made up. The market is the most expensive it's been since 1929. And the AI story that justifies these crazy prices are physically physically impossible to deliver. And when all of that unwinds, and it will at some point, great many hardworking, nice, lovely, responsible people will end up holding something that looks exactly like that Snapchat chart, right? So it's not six random headlines. It is one connected machine, and now you can see it.

What To Do Next And Final Ask

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So let me be very clear because I'm not here to scare you or anything. I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not registered with anyone except, you know, uh, I don't know, the local dog charity or something. Um, I'm not telling you to sell everything tonight and hide in a bunker with, you know, tin food and ammo. In fact, I buy stocks every single week and I'm buying things, but I'm buying different things now I was buying six months ago. Because bubbles can run higher and longer than anybody believes, and I want to be part of that. And the people who panic and sell too early will also feel rather stupid. Uh, but the cruel truth is this being early and being wrong feels about the same, right? Up until the moment when they suddenly don't. And that moment, that exact moment when early becomes right, is the game. Getting it right is a skill. And it is a skill that you can learn. It's a skill that I learned, not because I'm smarter, it's just because I happened to stumble into the right people who knew this. So you can see the picture. You can be dead right about all of this, but you can still lose a lot of money if you don't know when to get out. And this is not a knowledge problem. You clearly have that knowledge now, right? It is a skill problem. Remember that stock you put in the comments, the one that went up and then took your money back, right? It's the exact same thing that we're fixing here. The winners went up, some of them are a thousand percent 10x. People have still lost money on that. Because when the big number finally showed up on the screen, guess what? They had no plan. They froze. They were just like, ah, let's hold it, might go higher, like you know, NVIDIA did. And it's the mistake that kills every investor, every single cycle. And it is, in my humble opinion, avoidable. Wall Street has a selling rule book, and they have had it for many, many decades. So I will, in one free live session, give you the actual selling rules, when to take profits, when to cut your losses, and how to never watch that great big beautiful gain be handed back to the, I was gonna say bastards on Wall Street. Of course, I meant the lovely people who make our financial system work so incredibly well. So I'll show you how to fit it to your portfolio, your own risk, your own timelines. It's not a copy my trades type thing. I don't do that. It's learning the decision process and then making your own decisions. That's what it's all about. It's a skill. It's a good way to sell.org, grab your free ticket, show up live, bring your uh golden retrievers or you know, whatever you're harboring. And um do me just one favor if you're still here. Share this with one person who is maybe just convinced that their portfolio is perfectly safe. Because almost nobody understands how this machine actually works. And I think they deserve to see it too. I look forward to seeing you on Saturday. I wish you all the best.