Why He Sold Nearly Everything

SPEAKER_00 0:00

So I have basically so most countries in the world, and I have a huge amount of 10 US dollars, I have tiny shares, I have to lose pickers ten shares, but for the most part of simple person. I own go and I'm high in now. But if they go down, I hope I'm small enough to buy them. I've been around long enough to know to learn not to listen to government. Not to believe government most of the time. Don't listen to other people, including me. Don't listen to me. You want to hear about my first wife? What a mistake. What a mistake that was.

SPEAKER_01 0:34

My guest today co-founded the Quantum Fund with uh George Soros in 73. And by the time he retired at 37, that fund was up over 4,000%. The SP did about 47% in the same period. And then he got on a motorcycle, rode around the world twice, wrote a bestseller about each trip. He moved his family to Singapore because he decided the 21st century might belong to Asia. And he's been calling the commodities super cycled and the decline of the dollar for decades. And the record says he's been right more than, well, almost anybody alive. And he's just turned 82, I believe. And what he's doing with his own money right now might just surprise you. So we're going to be covering a lot of ground here today. And I want to make sure this conversation lands for everybody watching this. So what we're going to do is we're going to put together an easy to understand full explanation and report that you can download for free. There's a link down below in the description. And Jim Rogers, I'm very, very excited to speak to you. I'm excited to learn from you and hear some of your wisdom. On our community here, our viewers are mostly US investors. They're probably 40 to 60 years old and they're maybe 10 years of retirement. And I know that most of them are sitting in US tech funds and index funds right now. So what do you say to people like that? What are you personally doing with your own money right now?

SPEAKER_00 2:05

Well, I am certainly delighted to be here. I am flattered to be here. Uh with all, you know, I'm it's exciting. That's great. What am I doing? Well, at the moment, nearly every stock market in the world has had an all-time high or near an all-time high. So I have basically sold most countries in the world, and I have a huge amount of cash in US dollars, in US dollars, uh because when the problems come, many people think that the US dollar is a safe haven. It's not, but people think it is, so I have my money in US dollars.

SPEAKER_01 2:45

So you're you're sitting mostly in in cash, literally cash, or T-bills or something?

SPEAKER_00 2:51

A few shares in China, some shares in Uzbekistan, but basically I'm in cash.

SPEAKER_01 2:57

Okay. Interesting. Now, what was the last thing you sold? Oh, do you think I remember? I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 3:04

I wish I was that smart.

SPEAKER_01 3:06

Okay. So you just pressed the button and you just you just exited the market?

SPEAKER_00 3:10

Yes. I mean, I don't remember the last thing, but once I decided it was time to sell, I started selling, and who knows? Who knows? I sold nearly everything. I still have China and I still have respect for stamps.

SPEAKER_01 3:25

Okay. I think this will surprise an American audience generally, because a lot of my audience has been told one thing all their lives, which is buy the index fund or buy good stocks, hold forever and never sell. And you're doing one thing different. So what triggered you to say, obviously, with your tremendous experience, to say this market is too risky or there isn't the risk reward here that I was looking for?

SPEAKER_00 3:50

Oh, well, Felix, I make lots of mistakes. I mean, I make many, many, many mistakes in my life. I hope I live long enough to make many more mistakes. If you want to hear about my first wife, oh, what a mistake. What a mistake that was. And I have enough experience and certainly have learned enough to know that when everybody's having a good time, it's a time to look

Euphoria Signals And AI Bubble Talk

SPEAKER_00 4:25

out the window and maybe ask some questions. So I looked out the window and asked some questions and sold. Too soon, but I don't mind being too soon.

SPEAKER_01 4:35

Okay. So you don't mind being too early, you sort of overcome the FOMO of being in it. But everybody I talk to in the financial world mostly, they're all saying, well, AI, and you know, the sort of this time is different approach. Um, and it reminds me of I started investing in 1999, which wasn't the greatest time to start. Um, but in the dot-com bubble, the internet came about. And it's a real technology that's incredibly useful, and we wouldn't be having this conversation right now if it wasn't around. And now we have AI. And if you have simply held, I suppose that's what people some people are thinking, through the dot-com disaster, um, you'd probably done all right, uh, at least if you'd owned the index. Um, so what do you say to people who are fearing, are we going to get another Nasdaq drop of 78%? Um, or are is you know, are they gonna keep bailing us out?

SPEAKER_00 5:30

Oh, that's good news. Is there someone going to bail us out? We don't have to worry about anything. Wow. Hooray, hooray, hooray. Well, I mean, I've read enough and seen enough to know that we will have hard times periodically. We always have. I hope we live long enough to see many more hard times in our lives. And I do know that short of some dramatic disaster like losing a huge war, but even if you lose a huge war, it could be okay in the end. I mean, look at Germany. Germany lost a huge war in 1945. Oh my gosh, if you'd invested in Germany in 1945, you'd be rich now. So even disasters can turn into a good time if you get it right. So all I can tell people is please be attentive, be alert, and stay with what you know. I do not want anybody to listen to me and invest in what I invest in. I want them to invest in what they themselves know. That's how you will be successful. That's how you will survive. Yeah. What you know.

SPEAKER_01 6:52

And I I I I I I I love that that you're saying that, Jim, because that's why I always say to people like, don't listen to someone else, don't look for the stock tips. You have to have a process you have confidence in with good risk management so that you will survive

Bailouts, Japan, And Opportunity In Chaos

SPEAKER_01 7:06

the next disaster which will inevitably come. Now, speaking of next disasters, as we're talking here, Japan seems to be sort of falling apart, or at least the carry trade potentially be falling apart, which is essentially people have been able to borrow in Japan basically at zero, zero interest rate, and then take that yen by dollars with it, and then invest in US assets and make a very nice difference. Now, as Japan's interest rates are going higher, um that potentially unwinds. And I think it was last Friday the market dropped about a trillion dollars in the last 40 minutes on the fear that this was happening. So now we have the US Fed opening essentially a repo line to Japan. Um, what is your view on that? Do you see that? Is that does that feed into like why you are sitting largely in cash?

SPEAKER_00 7:55

Well, I think I have enough experience to know that it's not good to bail people out. But I also know that human beings always want to be bailed out, and they can usually find somebody who will bail them out. Now, I also know that when there is a disaster and something needs bailing out, it is often an opportunity. I mean, in some countries, the word disaster and opportunity are the same word, the same symbol. I don't know about Japan right now, but I do know that throughout history, disasters and opportunities have often been the same thing. If you know what you're doing and if you have courage and cash.

SPEAKER_01 8:41

And cash, hence your cash pile. I mean, you are essentially let me tell me if it's fair to describe you, you're a sort of a contrarian investor. Is that how you describe yourself?

SPEAKER_00 8:49

Oh, I don't describe myself that way. Some people do, but at least what I have found is I mean, if you buy things that are cheap, that usually means other people are not interested. And so they say, ah, he's a contrarian. No, I just like to buy cheap things. And that often means it's because other people are looking the other way. Therefore, they call you a contrarian. Ah, call me what you want, as long as I get it right.

SPEAKER_01 9:21

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 9:21

Is

Buying Despair And Holding Gold

SPEAKER_00 9:22

gold cheap? I mean, gold was some silver right here in my hand. It is near an all-time high. I own gold. I'm not buying it now. I'm not buying silver, but uh I own both. But if they go down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. Gold and silver have always been of great value throughout history, throughout the world. I presume they always will be. You remember Jesus Christ? Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. That was a long, long time ago. Silver's still valuable. I still have some in my hand.

SPEAKER_01 10:03

So, what's your process when you say if it goes down you want to buy more? Can you be more specific on that?

SPEAKER_00 10:09

No, because I don't know. I will say that I have learned that when you turn on the TV or you turn on the computer, and everybody's in despair about something, or people are saying, uh, forget gold. It's a has been, it's finished, it's all over. When there's that kind of mood around about anything, it's a time to ask questions and perhaps to act and buy.

SPEAKER_01 10:38

Okay. So if you you continue to swim against the against the stream in a sense. Now for you went in some way.

SPEAKER_00 10:45

It's just finding despair and when things are cheap. Despair, things are usually cheap. Doesn't mean to fight, but it's a place to look.

SPEAKER_01 10:55

Okay. And you're holding your silver cup. Um now that's physical silver. What are your thoughts on futures markets, you know, leveraged silver ETFs, COMEX, all of that? Um lots of, well, reasonable accusations being made that maybe they suppressed, for example, the silver market towards the end of last year with you know margin courts and so on being triggered. Do you does that feed into your decision making? Are you concerned about that, the way the the markets are being run and priced up?

SPEAKER_00 11:24

I mean, I've heard that kind of claim about many assets for many years, and I've read about them for many, many decades, centuries. Um, whenever something's collapsing, people always have good reasons, good explanations, and good answers. I will just repeat that I have found that often when there's despair and pessimism about something, people should look around and maybe ask some questions and maybe act.

SPEAKER_01 11:57

Okay. That's good wisdom. Now, the U.S. Treasury

Don’t Trust Governments And Fort Knox

SPEAKER_01 12:00

Secretary went on TV about a week ago and he said, all the gold is there at Fort Knox. Do you take the government's word on it? And does it matter?

SPEAKER_00 12:09

I've been around long enough to know or to have learned not to listen to governments or not to believe governments most of the time. I mean, it's quite often. It's not that they're lying, they just don't know. So they talk, they talk a good game. You know, these guys are paid to talk a good game. That's their job. Make everybody feel good. Now, I mean, Scott says everything is great. I hope. I don't know if he knows what he's talking about, but anyway, I own some gold and I own some silver and I own some US dollars.

SPEAKER_01 12:49

Okay. So you mentioned most markets in the world are at all-time highs, right? Like mm pretty much aro around the globe. So is there anything in this world right now that you are watching? Is there a particular asset class or niche or or geography that you are you're actively looking at? Well, that that could get really interesting.

SPEAKER_00 13:09

I try to look at many things. I mean, I don't work as hard as this as I used to, but I try to be aware of what's going on. And if I come across despairs in some market, I hope I'm smart enough to look further. Despair is often a good indicator. I mean, joy, happiness, hysteria is often a good indicator, too. You know, human emotions have been around a long time. And if you can watch them and understand them and then get your facts right, you might be successful.

SPEAKER_01 13:44

So are you doing this on a I didn't say it was easy. You didn't, Jim.

SPEAKER_00 13:50

If, if, if.

SPEAKER_01 13:52

Yeah. Now you say facts and you say despair and you say joy. Um do you have a fact-driven process? I mean, you know, I see people in there counting the word, I know how many times the word, whatever, uh, all-time high or recession is mentioned in news headlines. Or do you have an actual like hard process for that? Or is it for you more of a feeling and experience because you've done this for so long?

SPEAKER_00 14:16

I wish I had a simple answer. Basically, it's just experience. I hope uh still make mistakes, but it's mainly experience and watching the mood of the markets.

SPEAKER_01 14:31

Okay. So you are you're hunting for despair and misery, and you get cautious when everybody is very excited about AI or SpaceX or whatever it is, the thing of the moment.

SPEAKER_00 14:43

I mean, people have gotten very excited about many things. Railroads were once wildly exciting to many markets. Many things. Electricity. Oh my gosh, electricity was once the most exciting thing you could imagine. So much of this has happened before. I repeat, I hope I live long enough to see many, many more periods of wild excitement and hysteria. It's happened before, and it will happen again.

Advice For Index Investors Near Retirement

SPEAKER_00 15:12

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 15:12

So what would you say to imagine there's a viewer sitting there in Ohio in the US? He's 50 years old, he's got a couple of hundred thousand dollars in his, you know, IRAs and 401ks and so on. He's probably mostly in index funds, um, bit of tech stocks, I would imagine. What would you say to them? Like what is the next step for them to kind of get out of this fear and get to a place where they become more, you know, competent, perhaps, you know, skilled rather in in how to read these markets?

SPEAKER_00 15:43

My main advice to them is don't listen to other people, including me. Don't listen to me. Stay with what you know. And if you're sure that things are going to be fine in the US markets, index funds are a fine way to invest. It's been demonstrated many times that most people do not outperform the market. And an index fund is a certain simple way to invest and to do as well as the market. She won't do better, but she won't do worse. That for many people is fine. We all want to do better than the market, but very few can.

SPEAKER_01 16:21

Very true. And what do you put that down to? Is it just a lack of skill, education, knowledge? We're all human beings.

SPEAKER_00 16:28

We all have the same emotions. We all have fear, we all have hysteria. I mean, we're human beings. Go down to the club tonight. You will see all the emotions known known to man, and you can follow the investments, whatever they are. Some of them are going to be wall excited, some are gonna be chad and pessimistic. You figure it out.

SPEAKER_02 16:53

Okay. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 16:55

Um can I run you th through a few ASO classes and just sort of just get your view on it?

SPEAKER_00 17:00

Well, I've already explained that for the most part I have So

Uzbekistan, Inflation, And The Dollar

SPEAKER_00 17:06

most markets, I have a lot of US dollars in cash, I have some Chinese shares, I have some Uzbekistan shares, I own gold, I own silver, but for the most part, I'm a pretty simple person right now.

SPEAKER_02 17:20

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 17:21

Uh what takes you to Uzbekistan? That's a fairly unusual market. Well, I mean, most people couldn't find Uzbekistan on a map. I don't think I could. Because Van's been there a long time. Uh at one time it was one of the most successful and prosperous countries in the world. Uh, you remember Tamerlane? Tamerlane was from Uzbekistan. In Japan, the word kamikaze is because Tamerlane was coming to invade and a typhoon blew him away and saved Japan. That's where the word kamikaze comes from. So Tamerlane at one time was extremely influential. Uh I mean he's gone now, and it's changed there, but learn about Uzbekistan. They have huge assets, lots of big neighbors. Might be interesting.

SPEAKER_01 18:16

Okay. Very interesting. Very interesting. And are you are you not worried about inflation nibbling away at all your cash US dollars that you're holding?

SPEAKER_00 18:24

Well, I know that inflation's here. I know that most governments say, don't worry. We have inflation under control. They've been saying that for decades. Of course I'm worried about it. Because I know that the simple answer for most governments is print money. And we know that printing money leads to inflation. I know there's going to be more inflation in the future. So one must prepare for it. Keep some gold in the closet, keep some silver under the bed.

SPEAKER_01 18:56

Okay. So your inflation hatches metals, but you're still holding dollars because you still view the US dollar space as likely the next opportunity?

SPEAKER_00 19:07

Or is it that when things go wrong, people look for a safe haven. And for most people in the world, rightly or wrongly, in 2026, US dollars the safe haven.

SPEAKER_02 19:20

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 19:21

You can tell them they're wrong all you want to, it doesn't matter. Most people still think that's the safe haven, so I have US dollars.

SPEAKER_01 19:30

Okay. Makes

Motorcycles, Singapore, And Learning From Mistakes

SPEAKER_01 19:31

sense. May I deviate a little bit into your more personal story if you don't mind, Jim. So you retired at the 37? A long time ago. Long time ago. Yes, probably, yes. Um, and then you got on a motorcycle and you rode around the world?

SPEAKER_00 19:45

Well, you know, Felix, I grew up in a very small place, very, very small place. My phone number was five, where I grew up. That's not a typo. That's all it was. One number. And if you grow up in a place like that, chances are you never lead, which is fine. Or maybe you're crazy like me and you want to see the world. I knew there was a lot more out there, and I wanted to go and see it. Some people wanted to be working all their lives and get richer and richer. What I wanted was adventure and to see the world. So I did it.

SPEAKER_02 20:18

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 20:19

And then what what made you settle? My children are going to say, Oh my gosh, what a waste. Why'd you spend so much time and money on adventure? Why didn't you make more money for us?

SPEAKER_01 20:31

Well, I think I think you've probably done all right, Jim. Well, I'm so far so good. So far so good. Um what made you select uh Singapore to move to? How long have you been in Singapore for?

SPEAKER_00 20:46

Well, I was teaching my I was been telling people for many years, you should teach your children, grandchildren, Chinese, because it's a rising power, it's gonna be the next great language in the world. And then I was doing it, but I I daughter came home from the park one day crying. She said everybody laughs at her because she speaks Chinese, they all speak Spanish. So I realized that if I were serious, I was gonna have to take her to a Chinese-speaking city where she would have to speak Chinese. We looked around. I mean, I don't speak Chinese, and here's Singapore. In Singapore, they speak Chinese and English. Bad English, bad Chinese, but still they speak it. An extremely efficient, extremely well-run place to live, extremely easy, so here we are.

SPEAKER_01 21:39

Okay. And your family was just fine. You said we are packing up, we're off to Singapore, and everyone was happy.

SPEAKER_00 21:44

Well, there was nobody except my wife and my baby girl at the time. So yes, everybody agreed. Here we are, we're still here. Okay, amazing.

SPEAKER_01 21:55

Okay, lovely. Uh no, no, I get it. I mean, I'm I'm I'm based in Hong Kong most of the time, so. So fair similarities between the two towns. So I get the attraction. Now, if you look back over your whole career, and it's been a been a long one, what's the what's the sort of is there one call where you go, oh, I wish I wouldn't have. Is there sort of something you thought, oh my god, I completely got that one wrong?

unknown 22:20

Oh.

SPEAKER_00 22:21

You want to hear about my first wife? I made many mistakes in my life. Oh, most of them, I look back, and most of the mistakes are when I acted without really completely understanding and knowing what I was doing. The easy way is to act, act, aft. But I have learned that that's usually a mistake, or often a mistake. And the thing to do is to wait and be sure and learn more and learn more and learn more. And even then I make mistakes.

SPEAKER_01 22:56

How do you deal with mistakes? Do you have a do you define your risk before you ever buy something? Or you have some sort of automation setup, or I go how do you deal with that?

SPEAKER_00 23:06

Well, I know people have rules such as if it goes down 15%, automatically sell, etc. Sometimes I wish I had those rules. I usually just wait till I hurt too much and sell, offering at the wrong time. But I usually try to like make my judgment and my decisions based on the facts. Which of course is complicated in markets because there's so many emotions at work in nearly all markets. And often facts don't matter. Emotions are more important. Which I have learned. I have learned to understand. Doesn't mean I'm good at it, but at least I understand now.

SPEAKER_01 23:51

Yeah. No, I totally get it. I think every every person who trades or invests their money understands that the emotions are the enemy. Uh, we all have them. It's a good job that we have them, but in in the financial space, it's definitely not helpful. So um, okay, interesting. So maybe just blasting, of course, you're free to share anything you wish to share, but what what would you say to, you know, a beginner investor who's feeling iffy about this market, they're worried about the AI bubble, they're worried about the money printing and the debt and then in the war and all of that. What would you say to them?

SPEAKER_00 24:26

Well, the main thing I would say to everybody is don't listen to other people. Stay true to yourself. I'm not the person the first person to say, be true to yourself, divine own self be true. That's the answer. Please try not to listen to other people. Try to turn off the television or the computer. Try to make your own decisions. Very difficult when you go down to the pub and everybody's screaming about how great things are. It's hard to ignore it. But the most important lesson I have learned from the markets is please don't listen to other people and listen to yourself. Be careful, be careful, be careful, and listen to yourself.

SPEAKER_01 25:12

Sage advice, Jim. Now, you mentioned something there in passing, and it makes me think of how you learn, how did you actually learn the skill of doing what you're doing? And I presume, and I mean, I've worked in an investment bank, I've got a team of retired bankers and hedge fund guys and so on. And if whenever I ask people, they always say they name usually their boss or you know, somebody they worked with, where they actually acquired those skills. Is that the same process for you? You worked with somebody who inspired you and taught you some skills?

SPEAKER_00 25:40

I've met many smart people in my life. I've read about many, many more smart people. I guess the main thing is I just learn from making mistakes. You know, I'm not the first to tell you that experience is a very, very good teacher. Making mistakes taught me a lot. I repeat, I hope I live long enough to make many, many, many more mistakes and learn, and learn from them. Yes.

SPEAKER_01 26:08

The the key, I think, is that not everybody sort of survives their mistakes, right? A lot of people get knocked back by years in terms of their retirement or their freedom because they make very large mistakes.

SPEAKER_00 26:18

Well, that of course is a serious problem. If you don't survive, that's pretty difficult. Um there are many there are people I know who have automatic rules to cut their losses if things go against them. I don't have those rules, and I often should, but figure out how to protect yourself. I in the world knows that staying with a loser is often going to cause worse problems. I don't have an answer. I just know we all have to learn.

SPEAKER_01 26:50

Okay. No, I agree with that. Um, sentiment for sure, Jim.

Protecting Yourself And Final Takeaways

SPEAKER_01 26:54

Um, Jim, it's been a real pleasure talking to you and learning from you and hearing about your experience and your take on the world. And actually, it sounds a lot more optimistic than than I perhaps thought of you might be. I thought you might be a little bit more just worried about everything, but I see you more as a you're looking for the next opportunity, and you're thinking right where we are right now, there is possibly more risk than opportunity.

SPEAKER_00 27:17

Well, I know I should look out the window and see what I can find. There's always something. If one is diligent and attentive, all you have to do is find it. Uh it's not easy. I didn't say it was easy, but if one is attentive and diligent, one might survive.

SPEAKER_01 27:38

Okay. Fantastic, Jim. I really appreciate your time. Thank you very much for sharing your wisdom and your lessons and your experience with us. It's been fun.

SPEAKER_00 27:47

I always learn. And I hope I learn from you again in the future.

SPEAKER_01 27:52

Thank you very much, Jim. Thank you.

SPEAKER_00 27:54

Take care. All all the best, Jim.

SPEAKER_01 27:57

Thank you, thank you, thank you.