Why Gold Feels Stuck

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If you're in gold right now, the last few months have probably been a little frustrating. You did everything right, you bought the safe haven, you watched the world catch fire, and you know there's the debt, there is the wolf, there's the money printing so much Winston had to lie down, there's an AI boom that looks more insane by the day, and yet your gold just sort of sat there, lost a bit of value. And somewhere in the back of your mind, a quiet voice is probably asking you, did I get this wrong? In my humble opinion, you didn't. In fact, Alberta just told me that you were just early, because something is about to happen to gold that most people will call unthinkable. And the biggest banks in the world only just started saying it out loud. I've literally just read Wall Street's research. Here it is, if you can see that in the in the side camera there, perhaps. And here's the part that matters most to me. There is one specific pattern that Wall Street professionals watch for, and almost every regular investor completely misses. It doesn't tell you if gold moves, it tells you where. And I'm looking at that pattern literally right now through my yellow glasses. So stick with me because in the next two minutes, I'm going to show you what's coming for gold, why this moment is different from every gold rally you've ever lived through. Well, actually, the one in 2025 was quite similar. And it's the exact pattern that the pros use to get better on the timing part of it. Now, there's going to be a lot of information in this video. That's always my intention. And I appreciate not everything lands necessarily when you watch it sort of in the background. So Winston down here has put together a free research bonus report on everything I'm covering here, plus much, much more. Winston, up, Winston, up, sit, sit, sit. There he is, taking credit for his hard work. All right. So download it at FelixFrens.org slash gold. Uh the link is uh in the description down below. And I think he deserves an ear massage for that. So grab it, follow along. And if you're wondering who the heck we are, my name is Felix, I'm an ex-investor bank and economist. I sat on the trading floor and I watched closely how these things actually work. And today, Winston and I run the GOAT Academy, where my retired Wall Street mentors have helped over 25,000 students so far. And of course, Winston is our gold research analyst, right? So one thing I wanted to know about us, we don't take any sponsors. No one's ever paying us to hide gold. No one's ever paying us to scare you. Uh, we literally got offered a board seat the other day, didn't we? On a gold miner. We said, no, thank you very much. It's very kind of you to think of us, but um absolutely no freaking way. Because I I quite like to be independent. I quite like to tell you what I'm telling you because I want to tell you, um, not

Big Banks Turn Bullish Together

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because of something else. So let me start with something that almost never happens. In the space of about two weeks, eight of the biggest financial institutions on the planet, these guys here, all publish the same view on gold. And I need you to understand why that's odd. You see, big banks disagree for a living. One says buy, another says sell. That's how the markets sort of work. So when they're all quietly pointing in the same direction at the same time, well, it's a signal paying attention worth paying attention to. And here's the actual lineup. Try to put it on the screen for you, yeah. Make it a little bit smaller. There it is. State Street says base case 4,700 to 5,500. Uh, bull case up to 6,250. Deutsche Bank says 4,600 by year end. Goldman Sachs Sachs, they literally titled their notes saying start nibbling with a flow of around 4,000. It's not financial advice. I'm telling you what to buy. I'm just giving you the data, the facts, you can come to your own conclusion. UBS says up to 5,000 by next March. BNP Paribas says rebuilding loans, uh, flagging squeeze risk. ANZ says shift to accumulation. And Jeffrey says, well, I'll come back to about one in a second because it's gonna surprise you a little bit what Jeffrey says. Now, Deutsche Bank went the furthest, these guys here, and they described gold as being on what they call an explosive phase. Now that sounds a little bit like marketing, but it isn't. It's actually a statistical test. So without boring you with the maths, it's a tool that detects when a price breaks away from everything in a normal way of valuing it. So when the usual gravity stops working, then by their measure gold has been in this explosive phase since August of 2024. It ran very hot, cooled off a little bit since the peak, you probably noticed, but it's still reading above the danger line. And in plain English, that means even after gold pulled back from its highs, the engine is still running nicely and hot. So the rule that just broke is this. And that's the Jeffries point. I want to make sure that comes across. For about 40 years, there was a golden rule of gold. When real interest rates went up, that's the interest you earn after inflation, uh, gold went down. Always. Because if a government bond starts paying you a nice safe return, say 5%, well, boring old gold, which pays you no return at all, it looks a lot less attractive. So money pay money flows from the thing that doesn't pay you any interest to the thing that pays you interest. And that relationship has held for about 40 years. The rule just broke that. Real interest rates have been rising, but gold has refused to fall with them. It's holding up around a pretty nice level as I'm recording this here. So Jo Jeffries calls this a structural

The 40-Year Gold Rule Breaks

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decoupling. More simply put, something fundamental has changed in the plumbing of the financial system. The old rule stopped working. I mean, a 40-year rule breaks. You want to know why, don't you? Because the why is the whole story. Now, before I show you the why, I need to say something because it's the most important thing in this whole video. Almost everyone watching this already owns some gold, right? That was sort of the easy bit. But owning gold and actually making money from gold are two very different things, as you've probably experienced the last six months. So the people who got hurt in a setup like this, and the ones who never bought, they're the ones who panic sell at the exact wrong moment, right before the real move, because they never learn to read the pattern. And the people who win know exactly what to watch for. That's the pattern I mentioned at the start, the one I'm looking at right now, and it's exactly what I teach. In fact, I'm going to teach it to you for free this weekend. And let me just show you one little thing, because you might be thinking, patterns, this guy is, you know, uh off his rocker. Well, this was the moment in the summer of last year where we started buying gold quite heavily, and that did very, very well. And what am I seeing right now? I'm seeing the same pattern. A little earlier still than we were back then, but we're seeing the same pattern. And it's a pattern that's a little bit more complex than it looks like just on the chart here, but it is the only thing that I base my investment decisions on. And it's the only thing that a lot of people I know base their investment decisions on. And these are people who've all worked in financial institutions, banks, hedge funds, you name it. So my one ask to you is this learn the actual rules. Stop hunting for the tip, the timing, all that stuff. And I know many of you have been thinking, well, sounds a bit complicated, right? Surely Wall Street's rules are a bit complicated. So what I'm gonna do this Saturday, and I've never done this before, I'm going to teach this purely for beginners. You don't need to know a thing. You don't need to know a single word of Wall Street jargon or even have a brokerage or anything at all. If you do, it's still gonna really land for you because you might finally understand some of the things that you don't really fully understand yet. And my goal is that you'll walk out with some really unshakable confidence and you'll be able to make better decisions. So go to fasttrackforbeginners.com. Grab yourself a free seat. It's the Saturday at 9 a.m. and it's completely free, and I'll teach you for about two hours. And some of you might be thinking, oh, I'm not a beginner, but maybe you're just a little bit nervous about what's going on in the world. Inflation, money printing, AI bubble, and in all of that. In which case, what I'm teaching you on Saturday will also help you. Plus, I'll also show you exactly what I'm buying and what I'm looking to buy the coming week and why.

The Pattern Pros Use

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So if you want to see that, that could be kind of an interesting thing too. Now, this gold story isn't just a gold story. So let me give you the why. And to understand it, we have to talk about the thing you're probably also worried about, the stock market, and specifically this AI beam, because these two stories, gold and the AI bubble, are secretly actually the same story. And here's how they connect. A handful of giant companies are spending an almost unimaginable amount of money building AI. We're talking three-quarters of a trillion dollars a year between just Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. And that spending is what's holding up the stock market, because one company's spending becomes another company's revenue, which justifies sky-high stock prices. So as long as the spending grows, everyone looks like a genius, right? The debt, though, that you're not being shown is this. And this is the iceberg, because what most people never see is that a lot of that spending isn't being paid for out of revenue or profits, it's being funded with debt. And a growing amount of it is being kept off the balance sheet of these companies. So you can watch the Microsoft earnings or the Amazon or the Google earnings, and they are hiding from you intentionally how much they're really spending. And there's an analyst on CNBC just, and I know I make fun of them sometimes, but they can do some basic maths. And she on live on air did the maths, and guess what? The room went quiet. Because when you add up these off-balance sheet obligations, the debt across the big AI players, the number is heading towards $3 trillion. Oracle is the canary if you were running a coal mine. And you can see the strain the system is under in one specific place. There's a thing called a credit default swap. And I know that sounds deathly dull, but it's what 2008 financial crisis was all about. Think of it as an insurance policy against a company failing to pay its debt. The more dangerous the market thinks a company is, the more that insurance costs. Now, Oracle's five-year insurance cost is just pushed up here to this level of 215. Now, to put that into context, that is higher than in the week that Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. And the strangest part. Nothing in Oracle's actual business is broken. The revenue is growing, their cloud business growing 93%, their order backlog is 600 billion. So on the surface, it's booming, it's amazing, right? And Larry Allison looks like he's 25 and he's, you know, 368. Amazing. I want to know that guy's secrets. But underneath, their free cash flow was negative. They raised debt to fill their hole, and they're planning to raise more debt to fill more holes. So there's a company that looks like a rocket ship on paper. It's being insured by the market like it's 2008 and the world's about to collapse. And secondly, and this

AI Debt And A Credit Warning

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is what just broke today, Microsoft's AI sales are 70% just open AI. This is a disclosure they make yesterday for the first time ever. So this whole AI boom is 70% one company that Microsoft is an owner of. So it's not exactly an independent relationship, which makes you think well, what if all of the AI revenue is 70% just, you know, a friend? As in Microsoft essentially gives OpenAI money, so open AI can buy Microsoft services. Hmm. Makes you think, doesn't it? So we have two markets, the two financial markets, and people often just realize there's only a stock market. Well, there is this thing called the bond market, it's where the really boring people work who make a lot of money. And when these two disagree, the stock market and the bond market, guess who's usually right? It's the really boring people. There's a bond trader used to sit three seats on my left. Lovely chap. Um, well, you know, but very smart, I could tell you that. It's painfully smart. And what happens in these situations? Well, big money starts looking for the one thing that can't default, can't be printed, and doesn't depend on anyone else keeping up promise. There's really only one asset like that, and it is good old shiny gold. So that's one of the reasons, quiet reason, that we're seeing money moving into gold again. But there's even more to this. I didn't warn you this video would be fairly intense. And this might be the biggest one. Now, for 80 years, if you were a country and you wanted to store your national savings somewhere safe, you bought US government debt, US government bonds, treasuries. And now there's the safe asset. The dollar was king. And that is quietly changing. The concern now, laid out plainly in the Financial Times here, screenshot on my my screen here, is what what that Washington itself has become nervous about foreign countries using their dollars and sell them. And when that message sinks in, countries go looking for an alternative. Why? Well, earlier this year, when there was a real crisis, countries discovered that selling their US debt in a panic actually made the crisis worse. It threatened the spiral. But gold, gold they could sell instantly, easily, and it calmed the market down. So gold did the one job that the US debt used to do, and that's a profound shift from dollar dominance to dollar weakness. And it's happening. And it's happening out of view, but it's happening in the system. And that brings us to China. In a single month this year, China imported the equivalent of what the top 10 gold-producing countries on earth mine in a month combined. China continues to do that for the year, it would be 60% of all the gold pulled out of the ground worldwide. One country buying 60% of all the gold being pulled out of the ground. And it's not just China. Central banks as a group are buying gold at record pace. Highest quarter ever, 45 billion a single quarter. You can track it all on the Winston app if you wish. So

Dollar Trust Erodes Globally

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they don't fully trust their savings in a US dollar account because it could be frozen, it could be sanctioned. Gold can't be frozen. Gold has no counterparty, it is in your basement. And the last piece to this is there isn't a hidden mountain of gold coming, right? It takes 10 to 15 years to bring a new mine online. I've got a friend who's doing exactly that right now. And don't worry, I'm not an investor. I mean I have no uh no uh skin in that teeth. Uh you know what I'm trying to say. So if this gold demand stays around from central banks, well, the supply isn't going to come online for about 10 to 15 years. And now you're thinking, okay, that could all be true, but why on earth has my gold been so boring or losing me money then? Why isn't it screaming higher right now? And the answer is the most useful thing I can teach you today, because gold does not move in a straight line, no stock does. It moves in a pattern, the same pattern over and over. And once you know that pattern, you have a skill that you have for the rest of your life. And I can guide you through the top layer here, but if you want to really learn it, join me on Saturday. Uh, links down below in the description. The first phase is usually panic. And I had the great pleasure of interviewing one of a true investing legend yesterday. Video's coming out shortly. Um, and he said when I asked him what he looks for, and he's a gold bug, he said he looks for desperation in the market. Uh, real, like, you know, fear, panic, misery. And this is usually what happens. Gold goes down, right? And in a crisis, you get a shock that hits, oil spikes, inflation fears jump up, so the central banks can't cut interest rates, so the bond interest rates go up and the dollar jumps because everybody is scared. And everyone's scared, people still run to the dollar because they don't know where else to run. Higher interest rates, stronger dollar are bad for gold in the short term. So, right when you'd expect gold to soar, Middle East war, it dips. Almost everybody panic sells here. And that's of course never a good idea. And then we go to phase two, which I call the shakeout. The initial panic settles a little, gold drifts a little lower, sometimes for weeks or months. And it's a cruel phase because this is where the average investor looks at their account, sees red, and says, this was a mistake, and they sell, usually at the wrong moment. And then we go to four phase three, we go to the structural bit. The real buyer, should I say something? The institutional buyer, not the panic buyer. Central banks, the countries, the smarter investors. And by smart, I always mean skilled, because it isn't about brains, it's about knowing the skills, but having been taught the rules. And then all the forces I just walked you through reassert themselves, and gold finds a footer and starts to climb. And the painful irony is this most regular investors are still on the sidelines. They're too burned from the shakeout phase to get back in. And then we go to force phase four, all-time highs again, higher than before the

Gold’s Four Phases After Shocks

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crisis started. And that happens in every single major shock: 1973, 79, 1991, 2001, 2022. I could add 2026 to it. Always a crisis, different crisis, same phases. Now the pros are not guessing which phase we're in. They watch for a very specific signature on literally a stock chart. And when they see a certain pattern, it indicates to them stocks drop, stop dropping. And I say stock because the same thing works for stocks or index funds or anything else. Price goes quiet, it coils up. And then there's a particular fingerprint of a pattern right before the structural move begins. That's how they tell the difference between the dead cat bounce and the real turn. Now I can't teach you to read that pattern in 60 seconds on YouTube, but I can show you live based on what I'm seeing. Gold looks like it's been working through that shakeout phase and building the kind of base that comes before the structural move, not after. Don't just blindly buy because I'm telling you, because you'll lose money. It's guaranteed. But that pattern recognition, it is not a prediction. It's exactly the kind of thing that I'm going to walk you through for free on the weekends in a way that any beginner can understand and follow. So they're going to be two people at the end of Saturday. There's type one, and he sees gold pullback and thinks the trade is over. I should have sold at the top. And one is off to chase whatever hot is hot this week, quantum AI or whatever. Type two sees the same pullback and thinks that's the shakeout. The structural setup is stronger than ever. And they accumulate at roughly the right-ish moment because we don't try to time the bottom of the market. We just try to not be completely wrong like most people. So it isn't about being smart or rich or connected. It's about understanding the rules. Let's bring it all home. Eight of the biggest banks in the world are bullish in the same two weeks. A 40-year rule between gold and interest rates just broke. Somewhere near $3 trillion of hidden AI-related debt, with the credit market's flashing warning signs, something we last saw in 2008. China is importing gold by uh more than ever. Central banks are buying at a record pace because they'd no longer fully trust the dollar. And a 50-year pattern that's never once failed to make new highs after a shock is also here. That's the setup. Now, this isn't financial advice. I'm not telling you to run out and buy anything. Gold can and does correct. Even the most bullish bank on that list admits a sharp drop as possible inside an explosive phase. But the structural story is that more debt, more central bank buying, less trust in the dollar. Every condition is turned up to a level we simply haven't seen before. So the only real question is which type of investor are you going to be? The one who sees it and assumes it's over or buys it at the wrong moment is a bit confused and uncertain. And uncertainty is a wonderful thing if you realize that you can do something about it. Or are you going to be type two where you learn the skill

Two Investor Types And The Invite

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and therefore you are no longer an uncertain person and you're going to make better decisions for yourself and your family and your financial freedom and everything else. If you want to be the second one, come and join me live on the weekend. That's the whole purpose of this community here, by the way. We teach people the same rules that are usually only taught to people who are lucky enough to get a job in banking. So join me at fasttrackforbeginners.com on Saturday, 9 a.m. Eastern Time. There won't be a replay. Don't ask me for one because nobody watches them. I know you have good intentions to watch them, but you won't. I've seen the statistics. We've done this a few times. So join me live, Fast Track for Beginners. We've never done this before. We might never do this again. And I wish you great success.