Analyst Hype And Hidden Incentives

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18 out of 19 analysts on Wall Street told you to buy this very stock. Every big bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Stanley, JV Morgan, Deutsche Bank, one of them said it was going to be worth $800 a share, which would make it a $10 trillion company. And since the day they all said that, it's down 34%. And here's the part they don't tell you on TV. Winston just told me this. Every single one of those banks gets paid to say nice things about it. Billions in fees. So this bye-bye-bye chorus you keep hearing about AI, the people singing it get a check every time they sing. Which leaves one very uncomfortable question. If Wall Street is this bullish on AI, why is everything actually falling? My name is Felix. This is Winston here, the brains behind it all. And we don't take sponsorship. We don't have a fund to sell. We don't get paid by anybody we talk about. We're just an ex-retired banker and a golden retriever who think you deserve proper financial education. And let's look at the last two weeks. IBM, a 115-year-old company, just had the worst single day in its entire history. Down 25%. Worse than the 87 crash. Worse than dot-com. Worse than COVID. Worse than 2008. And SpaceX, the most hyped stock on the planet, well, its brand new bonds are trading like junk. And Goldman Sachs, the same Goldman telling the public it's all fine, has traders on its own desks whispering one word. Carnage. It's the same Wall Street. Just two completely different messages. One they sell you and one they act on with their own money. It's an IBM chart. See that drop there? This drop here? Worse than 87. Much worse than the dot-com. Way worse than 2008. So in this video, I'm gonna show you four things. How the people cheering AI the loudest are the exact people getting paid to cheer. Why the AI boom just ate one of its own? How the whole thing is being funded with borrowed money and a magic trick, and what the smart money is quietly doing while you're being told to buy the dip. And I used to be a banker. I used to sit in these meetings. I understand how this works. There's also no sponsorship here. I don't get paid by anybody. We don't take any sponsorship. We're not going to sell you a fund on the back end or anything like that, just to a Thai banker sharing stuff

SpaceX Fast Tracked Into Indexes

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with you. So let's start with SpaceX, what everyone's talking about. Last week, SpaceX joined the NASDAQ 100 and it got in on this brand new fast track rules, rules that cut the required trading history down to just 15 days. And they threw out all the usual minimum size requirements, everything else. Just 15 days. A company can barely be public and get waived into the most important index in the world. Why does it matter? Because index inclusion means billions in automatic buying. Every index fund, every 401k that tracks the NASDAQ has to go buy SpaceX. And that's a giant telbit that has nothing to do with the company's any good. And on top of that, 18 out of 19 analysts have to buy rating on it, one lonely hold in the out there. But so what have we got? We've got forced buy common index, a wall of buy ratings, every possible force pushing this stock up. And what did it do? Well, as I'm recording this, it's trading 38% below the high. It's trading about 10% below where it first started trading. And you know the day that it got included in the uh in the NASDAQ? It fell 6% on that day. 30% down on the week. So every retail buyer who's in this is underwater. The people who bought near 200, deeply underwater. Now, watch what the banks said it was worth. And I'm going to creepily read this out loud because you have to hear them back to back to feel how insane this really is. JP Morgan, $225 a share. Georgia Bank, $255 a share. Morgan Stanley, $300 a share. And Raymond James, the grand prize winner, $800 a share for SpaceX. Now, $800 is a $10 trillion company. It is 500 times the sales of SpaceX as a valuation. And nothing on planet Earth trades at even a hundred times sales, let alone 500. So these analysts just blew past 100 and they just kept driving to 500. And you see, that number ignores something. SpaceX isn't even profitable. Burning something like $5 billion a quarter and at 100 times sales, if every dollar of revenue magically became pure profit, you'd still wait 100 years to earn your money back. So you'd be dead. Your grandkids would probably be dead if you waited for the 300-year price target that uh these guys are putting out. And it's not just the numbers. Listen to the language in these reports. Deutsche Bank called SpaceX, and I'm quoting, the apex of civilizational ambition.

Wild Price Targets And Fee Conflicts

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They said it was bending the arc of history. Morgan Stanley called it the final frontier of AI. JP Morgan said its potential impact on humanity is bigger than any company we've ever seen. These are supposed to be financial documents, right? Banks do not write poetry about, you know, Exxon or something. Nobody at Morgan Stanley is calling a pipeline company the apex of civilizational ambition. When the writing suddenly reads like a movie trailer, you know the analysis has gone out the window. It's a sales brochure. And when the brochure gets that breathless, ask yourself the only question that matters. Who's getting paid? Why would these serious bankers put their name on numbers that are this crazy? Well, SpaceX is going to need to raise something like $200 billion over the next few years to fund everything they're doing. Elon's got pretty big plans. So who arranges the deals that size? Well, these banks. And they earn roughly 1% for arranging those funds. Now, 1% of 235 billion, which is Elon's target number, is about 20 billion in fees. So if you are an analyst who publishes a sell rating, do you think Elon calls you a bank for the next deal? Do you think you keep your job as the guy who covers his companies? That's the conflict. The research you're reading isn't a forecast, it's an audition for the next $20 billion payday.

The Bubble Risk Hits Your 401k

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Okay, I need to stop for a second because this next bit matters more than anything else in this video. This bubble is going to pop. I don't know the day, nobody does. But it pops. They always do. Even if the technology is great, the internet was great technology, right? Railroads were great technology, still, bubbles pop. And here's what people don't get. When it goes, it's not Elon's problem. It's not Goldman's problem. It's yours. Because your 401k already owns this stuff. Your index fund owns it. You didn't even pick these stocks that got shoved in there because that's where all the money went. And you're very, very likely heavily tech exposed, because most people I see are. So one morning, you're gonna log in to check your account and it's down 30%. Money you spent 10 years saving. And the same guys who told you to buy it on Wall Street, well, they'll be on TV going, well, uh, nobody could have seen this coming, right? I watched people live through that in 2008. Good people, including bankers, and you might find that hard to believe. They did everything right and they got wiped out anyway. And I don't want that to be you. And that's the whole reason I'm putting together a free life event. It's called Survive the Bubble. And it's simple. I show you how to protect your money before this thing breaks, because it's gonna break. If you try to protect your money after it's broken, it's too late. So learn what to actually look for in your own account. What holds up when the AI trade falls apart, which it will at some point. And the moves the smart money is quietly already making right now, what everyone else is asleep. And it's completely free. All you've got to do is go into the description or the first comment in this video, click on the survivethebubble.com, grab a ticket and show up. Bring your questions. There won't be a replay. I'll answer some of your questions live. And if you know some people who might also benefit from this because they're heavily in tech, or maybe they're just a little bit worried about what's going on out there, then send them the link and ask to show up as well. So sign up for that right now and then come back because what I'll show you next is the reason why I'm so sure this bubble is

Dot Com Lessons And The Wall Falls

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going to break. Now, many of you will remember the dot-com bubble, this is when I started investing. There was a superstar analyst back then called Henry Blotchett Admiral Lynch. He went on television and he told the entire country these internet stocks were incredible. Bye, bye, bye. And then the investigators pulled his emails. In private, he was calling those same stocks garbage, pieces of junk. He had one rating for the public and the opposite rating for his colleagues. And he wasn't alone. There was an analyst at another bank calling a stock a buy while privately calling it a pig. There was an internal email at Merrill where an employee wrote, and I quote, We're losing people money and I don't like it. John and Mary Smith are losing their retirement just because we don't want an investment banking client to be mad at us. And I put that on the screen here for you. I just digest this one more time. He wrote, John and Mary Smith are losing their retirement, so a bank doesn't lose a client. That's the business. That was always the business. The analyst got fined and he got banned from the industry for life. And in the wreckage, regulators build rules specifically to stop this from ever happening again. So when Oxley in 2002, and then in 2003, something called the Global Research Analyst Settlement, which legally built a wall between the research department, the people tell you what to buy, and the investment banking department, the people chasing those $20 billion fees. They weren't even allowed to talk without a chaperone in the room. Now here's the part that should make the hair on your part that should make the hair on the back of your neck stand up, like witnesses. The SECs quietly terminated that settlement about seven months ago. The wall they built after the dot-com disaster, they took it down. And right after, a former chairman of the SEC wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal with a headline, and I'm not paraphrasing, the SEC may make Wall Street analysts corrupt again. So let's connect the dots. The referee that was put on the field after the last bubble just walked off. Right? It's the biggest hyper cycle since the dot-com era is peaking. And the people telling you AI can't lose are the people who get paid when you buy it. And the one rule stopping them from lying to your face, well, it just got cancelled. That's exhibit A. Hold that thought because Exhibit B is even stranger.

IBM Crashes Because Of AI Spending

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Because so far you might be thinking, okay, one overhyped rocket stock fell back to Earth. All right, whatever. It's not a bubble, right? Just a bit of gravity. So let me show you what happened to IBM. On July 14th, IBM had the worst single trading day in its 115-year history. Down about 25% in a day. Here's that chart. The last bar on the right here, this little one here that my mouse is desperately trying to point to, it's bigger than Black Monday of 87, bigger than the dot com crash, bigger than 2008, bigger than the COVID crash. And this is literally a company older than the Great Depression. It survived the Depression, it survived World War II, it survived mainframe wars, the PC era, the internet, and it just printed the worst day of its entire existence. In the middle of the greatest tech boom of our lifetime. So naturally, you'd assume AI killed IBM because IBM got left behind. You know, this slow old dinosaur sort of type thing. But you'd be wrong. And this is the twist this entire video is built around. IBM didn't fall despite the AI boom, it fell because of it. Here's what the company actually admitted. Their customers, big corporations, took the budgets they normally spend on IBM software and their mainframes, and they redirected that money to pay for AI, the GPUs, the data centers, the shiny stuff everyone's excited about. Management even had a sanitized phrase word, CapEx reprioritization. So let me translate that into English. Our customers robbed our budget to go feed the AI monster. And it didn't stop at ABM. The same day, the Microsoft, the Salesforce, the ServiceNows all got dragged down in sympathy. Because the market realized if companies are starving their normal software spending to fund AI, that's a problem for a whole lot of stocks people think are safe. So the AI trade has gotten so hungry that it is cannibalizing the very companies that are supposed to benefit from the technology. Money is not gently flowing into the tech sector and lifting everything, it is being violently ripped out of the one part of tech and shoveled into another. So that's one boat sinking, so a few others can stay afloat. So if the boom is already eating healthy century-old profitable companies to feed itself, what happens when there is nothing left to eat? When a system has to consume its own to keep growing, it's not the beginning of something, it's late stage of something. So you just gotta ask yourself, do you think there's a risk this is a bubble? Do you think there's a risk the bubble is gonna burst? And if it is, you might want to show up on Saturday. And I'll teach you what I'm doing about it, I'll teach you what I learned from my Wall Street mentors what to do about it. So I can keep my money, I protect my retirement funds, and you can do the same

Two Wall Streets One Logo

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thing. And bear in mind, we've just discovered there are two Wall Streets. There's the Wall Street you see, the research reports, right? The $800 price targets, the confident analyst on mainstream media, and his job is to keep the deals flowing and keep the buying. And then there's the Wall Street you don't see, the trading desk, the bond desk. The place deep inside the same building where the firm bets its own money, their money, on what they actually believe is gonna happen. Same logo, same lobby, opposite message. One of them is marketing, and one of them is what they're actually doing with their money. And when the research department screams buy, or the trading floor is quietly selling, you don't want to be the person listening to the one that earns the commission of your yes. So hold on to that thought because in a few minutes I'm gonna show you a specific 48-hour window where you can watch both of them operate at the exact same time, on the same asset, from the same bank. But first, you need to understand what they're actually nervous about. You need to see the machine.

Debt Funding And Circular AI Revenue

SPEAKER_00 14:09

So if the smart money is nervous, quietly nervous, what is it nervous about? So let's pop open the hood and have a look at the engine. And I keep this very fast because once you see it, you'll you'll you'll get it very quickly. All these data centers, all those chips are not being paid with profits. It's being paid for with debt. Borrow it money. In a couple of months, these companies issued around $182 billion in brand new debt. AI borrowing is now 20% of the entire debt market in the United States. So these big companies are mortgaging the future to build the present and are betting that the revenue is going to show up in time to pay the bill. And then there is part two, which is the magic trick. This is the part they're really hoping you're never gonna notice. A giant chipmaker invests billions into an AI startup. Sounds kind of generous and great, right? They're building their ecosystem, except the startup that takes that same money and uses it to buy chips from the chipmaker that just funded it. And the chipmaker books that as revenue. Revenue's booming, the stock goes up, everyone cheers. But follow the actual dollar. It left the chipmaker's pocket, it went to the startup, and it came right back for the chipmaker as sales. It's the same dollar doing a lab. And they can run that lap over and over and over again. Money goes out and it's investment, it comes back as revenue, out again, back again. And half of all the AI revenue is that one dollar just going in and out. And it isn't just the companies. You remember the crypto guys a year ago? Crypto was the thing, right? Bitcoin, meme coins, all that stuff. Bitcoin's been cut in half from its peak. Trillions in crypto value just sort of gone. But those guys who like that thrill, they didn't disappear. They've just moved their money into AI stocks and not just the stocks, into leveraged bets on those stocks. And the last six months, more than 200 leveraged index funds have launched. Products that amplify your bets. So you make more when you're right and you get wiped out faster when you're wrong. So it's the same casino energy that the crypto mania brought us. It's just pointed at NVIDIA and the chip names and AI. So look at where you're actually standing right now. Record debt. I'd call it fake revenue going in around a circle. And the one rule that was supposed to stop the banks from lying to you, the SEC has just killed it. So if you're in an index fund, you're already in this. If you're in tech stocks, you're already in this. If you have a retirement account, you're already in this. And when this thing turns, it's not going to send you a warning. And that's the part that gets people. You don't get a letter. You find out the way everybody always finds out. You open your account and it's already down 10, 20, 30%. And there's nothing left to do but sit there and watch it. And I know people in 2008 who pushed back their retirement by like five, six, seven years. People's college funds disappeared. I mean, this is real stuff, right? People had to sell their homes. You might remember that. I've seen it happen. It's the same story every time. And yeah, you can't beat the guys at the end game. You can't outspend the marketing, but you actually don't have to. You just have to know what to look for before the crowd does and get your money somewhere safer before the stampede, not during it. And I'm not saying we're going to be able to predict when this crash happens. Nobody can do that. But we can apply the same things that those banks are doing right now with their own money to our portfolio. Remember marketing and then what they're actually doing. If you want to learn what they're actually doing and how to do that yourself, join me on the weekend at survivethebubble.com. It's completely free. It's live. We can do a massive Q ⁇ A. And if you do one thing off the back of this video, just do that. Just do that. And maybe share it with a couple of people. Put it on your social media, put it on X, put it wherever you know people are investing, because I think it's going to help a lot of people. And once the crash hits, it'll be too late.

Carnage vs Optimism And Final Warning

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And if you still don't believe me on this, that World TV operates like this. Look at this Financial Times article. They report that banks are trying to offload their AI debt, get it off their own book, move the risk to somewhere else, ideally onto someone slower than them, right? Doesn't understand what's going on here. And the FT is one of the most respected financial papers in the world. And then what happened? 48 hours later, literally just two days later, Goldman Sachs publishes a great big, loud, optimistic report about the AI trade. The future's bright, growth ahead, stay in less step. You know, that kind of note that gets quoted in every finance channel. It reassures all the nervous retail investors. And then step three, around that same time frame, Goldman's own trading desk. The people moving real money in these exact bonds describe what was actually happening with one word, carnage. So privately, they're dumping the risk. Publicly, they're telling you it's a great time to be invested. And internally, on their own desk with their own money, carnage. So this isn't some crazy conspiracy. This is just the two Wall Streets. We've always had them, but we've just taken the referee out, so it's just gotten a lot worse. SpaceX, the same, right? The banks were screaming by. It's the same move, right? Sell the beautiful story to the public. Sell the ugly risk to somebody else. It's the dot-com playbook. It's running again in real time right now. And if you just deleted the word internet and typed in AI, you'd be running the exact same framework again, just a different decade. Different technology. Amazing technology, both amazing technologies. So there'll be two kinds of people when this plays out. They're the ones who got a warning and they did something about it and they improved their skill set and they got up and became a better investor and they protected themselves and their family. And then the ones who said, um, nobody could have known. So I just gave you the warning. And this isn't a gloom and doom channel, right? I I love AI, it's amazing. We use it in all my businesses. It's incredible. It's nothing to do with that. The internet's incredible, right? As I said, railroads are incredible. But the way the financial markets are incentivized is to create bubbles, just to go beyond what they should be doing, because they all get paid that way. And at some point, this is gonna pop. It'll be a little event, and then we'll all realize how crazy the leverage really is. We look at the circular revenue, you know, there's one dollar going around, and the music will stop. So if you want to be prepared for that, join me on the weekend, survive the bubble.com. And I wish you a safe twenty twenty six.