Famous Stocks Are Crashing

SPEAKER_00 0:00

SoFi, Palantir, Microsoft, three of the most famous stocks in America, and right now, all three are crashing. And you own at least one of these because you have an index fund or a pension fund or something. And guess what? One of them just fell more than 40% from its high. And the uncomfortable part is most of you are owning SoFi, a lot of you own Palantir, and many of you certainly own Microsoft. And as we speak, literally thousands of regular investors are doing the single most dangerous thing in the market. They're buying the dip on names like these without knowing whether they're catching a gift or a really painful falling knife. And the part that nobody tells you is this when a famous stocks you love drops, your gut sort of screens bargain. And sometimes it is. And sometimes that feeling literally wipes people out. And I've just looked through thousands of portfolios of students, and many of them are doing the exact wrong thing right now. So I'm going to give you a very simple traffic light system, which means that by the end of this video, you know which one is the huge opportunity, which one you want to wait on, or which one's the falling knife, based on the rules from Wall Street, not something I just made up. And I think at least one of these is going to really, really surprise you, maybe even annoy the heck out of you. And I'm hoping this works for you because I'm literally just walking back here in uh in New York. But I thought this is very important. And we're having a call on it just now with one of my mentors, and he was like saying, Everyone's everyone's doing the wrong thing. So I thought I'd put this video out for you. My name is Felix, I used to be an investment banker, and we've taught well over 25,000 students over the last six years how to just manage their money better. So our mission is very simple: give regular people like you the rule book that Wall Street keeps for itself. And by the end of the video, you won't just know what to do about these three stocks, but what to do about any falling or failing stock for the rest of your life. But as there's a lot to cover, I will also put together, as soon as I get back to my hotel room, a full research

Good Company Versus Good Stock

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report on these three stocks, the exact levels I'm watching, the signals that'll change my mind, and you can download that for free at uh FelixFriends.org slash three stocks. So I think that's a good name, isn't it? You put the link in the description as well as well. So grab it, it's completely free. Um, no obligation, nothing required there. Just download it to make sure you get the value out of this. And what I want to already teach you in more depth here is the difference between a good company and a good stock. And that's also really, really important because those are two very different things. So let's start with the trap. Because I fell into this myself when I was younger, and I lost half my money before I ever set foot in a bank buying uh, you know, allegedly great companies. Um they kept going down and down and down. And what I didn't understand is this the price of a stock is not a scoreboard of how good the company is. Listen to that again. A stock price is a scoreboard of two things expectations versus reality, and where the money is flowing. A company can be absolutely brilliant, growing, profitable, loved, and the stock can still fall. Why? Because the price had already priced in and baked in the good stuff, and the big money decided to go shopping somewhere else. So the way I picture this is like the stock market is a giant bathtub. The master the water is money, and it doesn't actually leave the bathtub. No, it sloshes from one end to another, and when the money sloshes to what say, let's hope you don't get run over as I'm crossing the road here, um, it sloshes to say chips or AI stocks or something. Even some fantastic companies get left sitting in the really shallow end, and it isn't their fault. Now, the pros have a really fancy name for it, they call it sector rotation, but don't worry about the jargon. It's literally just water moving in a bathtub from one end to the other, right? So when you see a famous stock down 40% and your gut yells, bargain, the honest answer is down a lot tells you nothing on its own. A stock can be down because the water briefly left, or down because the company is genuinely terrible. And those look identical in the stock price, but they end completely different down the road. So how do how do the pros tell them apart? Well, I had a conversation with one of my mentors about this, a guy who's worked on Wall Street for a few decades. And we both agree that inside of a bank, nobody makes these decisions based on a gut feeling. It's a checklist. The same repeatable, unemotionable process. And that's what I'm about to hand you. So I've boiled the institutional version down to just three questions that literally are like a fifth grader can answer. And as we're looking at that dead walk signal there, which I'm ignoring, um, imagine this. And before I show you, be honest with yourself. Right now, do you actually know if the stocks you own are green, amber, or red? They seem to have skipped the the the amber thing here in New York, but you get the idea, right? And once you understand that, you never look at your portfolio quite the same way again. And so here are the questions you want

The Three-Question Traffic Light Test

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to ask. Every time a famous stock crashes, you ask yourself three questions. That's it. Three questions. Question number one is Is the money still flowing into the neighborhood? Because it's a lovely neighborhood I'm in right now. So we don't just look at the stock, we look at the whole industry. Just like if you were gonna buy a condo here, you would look at the location first, right? So we want to look at if the entire neighborhood is being abandoned, in which case it doesn't matter how nice the house is, it's just over. And then the second question is which side of the trend line is it on? Is the line gonna go up or is it going down right now? And the the line that I would look at if you're an investor is the 150-day moving average line. Think of it like the stock sort of speed limit. If the price is above a rising line, you're in the clear. If the price is below a falling line, you're kind of driving on black ice, dangerous line, right? And then question three is is this a rest? Is this a pause, or is it a crash? And every strong stock pauses to catch its breath sometimes. It's normal, it's healthy. Our panic means dumping on huge, frightened volume, and that's something very, very, very different. And that then brings us to our our traffic lights, right? Let's reread the lights. Green means what? I mean, you want to write this down, I'll put it into the document for you as well. Green is money flowing in, the price holding above the rising line, and that's a good place to be. Amber is sort of a mixed signal. It's a great company at the wrong moment. And we basically just want to like wait and be patient with that. And then the third, the red light, means money is literally fleeing the neighborhood. The price is under a falling line, ugly volume, it's your falling knife, very, very painful when it cuts off your little toe. And that's it. That's the test. It's just three questions, three colors. You can run it on any stock on earth in about 90 seconds, pretty objectively. Now, I need to be straight with you because this is the part that actually matters. Knowing how to read the lines on one stock is one thing. I just gave you that, right? It's just free value, and

Hidden Red Lights In Portfolios

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you can use it for the rest of your life. But here is what I see every single day, and it genuinely keeps me up at night. I I look at like thousands of real portfolios, right? Because we have a lot of students, and most of them are quietly full of red lights the owner cannot see. And that means people in real pain, retirees who think they're diversified, but actually own eight versions of the same falling knife. Really like hardworking, well-intentioned people who did everything right for 20 years and have no idea their portfolio is built for a market that already ended. And the brutal part is they won't find out until the end of July, which is when the next leg hits. And by then it's too late to do anything about it calmly. So reading the lights is the easy half. The hard half, the half that actually protects your money, is taking your own portfolio line by line and rebuilding it so it's full of green and clear of red before the storm, not after. And that's exactly what I'm gonna do with you live, if you wish. So I'm gonna run, we've never done this before, a live trading this coming weekend, and I call it while your portfolio is broken. And you won't know until the end of July that it really is, because that's when the market's gonna change. So we're gonna run through the actual actual kind of holdings you hold, we're gonna run through the red flags hiding in your portfolio, and we're gonna make you walk away with a clear, calm plan. And it's completely free. And if you just felt that little jolt of wait, what color are my stocks? That feeling is the reason I want to run this train because confidence and understanding what you actually own is so, so important. So go register for it right now. It's in the description down below. Go to my greatportfolio.com, which is our goal. Um, we'll take about 5,000 people live, um, and then come right back to the video here if you want to learn more about these three particular stocks, because there's definitely some opportunity here. But learning the skills is far more important than knowing what to do about one stock right now. And I know it, I get it. Everybody just wants a wants a lottery ticket and like, hey, stop talking about this training next week. I just want to know what to do about SoFi. But wouldn't it be nice if you knew what to do about every SoFi in your life forever after, right? That's the goal of Saturday, completely free, part of our mission to make a million people live financially

SoFi Looks Better But Early

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free. So, talking of SoFi, let's talk about SoFi. So SoFi is down like 40% from its high, right? And if you owned it on the way down, it's been pretty bloody painful. And you know I talked about SoFi a lot. I used to own SoFi, I don't anymore, I haven't for quite a while, because I had an exit roll. I had a system again, something we talk about on the weekend. So let's uh let's run through the system we have here. Question number one is money flowing back into it? Yeah, gradually, a little bit. Compared to the rest of the market, it's actually improving. SoFi has gone from being abandoned to being somewhat chased by institutional money. So the water is sloshing back towards the sofa end of the top. Question number two, which side of the line is it on? The price has clawed its way just above its short-term trend line. The longer term trend line, the 150 day, which I just mentioned, hasn't fully turned up yet. But the downward trend has stopped, right? So we're looking back at something that's starting to climb. So it's sort of green-ish with a bit of amber in there. So it's a little early. For me, it's a little too early to pull the pull the buy on it. I would personally wait. If you look at the stock chart, and maybe we can put one on the screen for you as I'm uh I'm talking about it. Um, I'd wait for it to rise above the recent highs. Because just because you think the worst is behind it doesn't mean that's actually the case. So I like to wait for that confirmation. So Sophie, recovering stock, um, it's on my watch list rather than on my buy right now list. New York is noisy at times. It's an amazing, amazing, fantastic city. I'm having an absolute blast here, but noisy at times.

Palantir Love Meets A Downtrend

SPEAKER_00 11:25

Okay, so this is the one that's gonna make some of you mad because I know a lot of you guys love Palantir, one of the most sort of loved AI darlings in America. And and um I owned at Summit at some point. I I again I don't right now, and it's down pretty hard too. It's down 45%, and the Palantir, you know, uh faithful are screaming, buy the jib, right? And I love the business. It's amazing. They built something truly incredible, but that's not how I invest my money. Let's run the light system. Question number one is the money still there? Astonishingly, yes. The crowd hasn't really left. The business is still growing. Um, and then we look at question two: which side of the line are we on? And that's the problem. So, despite all the love, the trend has rolled over. Price is well below its 150-day moving average line. It's turned downwards in terms of slope. So it's it's just not something I would ever touch. It is a clear red flag for me. And then the third question is it um is it resting or is it crashing? And it's been, you know, grinding for quite a while, sort of sideways, downwards, um, still slipping downwards. So lots of love in there, but uh the trend just says, no, it's a trap. So Palantir is at very least an amber, great company, wrong moment. And it's one of the hardest lessons in investing. And I'm sorry I'm so blunt about it. Amber means hands off the freaking wheel. You don't buy a beloved stock just because it's beloved and it's cheaper than it was. You wait for the institutional money to come gushing back in, for the wave to come back the other way, and then you flip from amber back to green, and then you can act. So, yeah, you might miss the first 10% of the recovery. Good. That 10% is the insurance premium you pay to avoid catching a knife that might go down another 30%. So missing the first bit of a real recovery has never ever bankrupted anyone. Catching falling knives has bankrupted thousands, it's that's delayed retirement for thousands. So hope isn't a strategy. Rules always are. And then be honest with yourself. Like how many of your current holdings are secretly amber, right? You might love the stock, but quietly, is it under the falling line? Most people own three or four or more stocks and have no idea that those are actually, you know, not great to own today. So, again, that's the core of what I'm gonna teach you if you join us at mygreatportfolio.com on the weekend. Um, and and and it'll be at like a two-hour live training session. We might even run longer because I'm sure you guys are kind of come armed with questions about all your stocks, right? And I want to make sure I give you, I give you um the value you guys deserve.

Microsoft Dip Or Falling Knife

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So, last one here, and this is the one that's gonna get me some anger comments. Microsoft. It's the biggest, most respected software company in the world, on the planet. And before I say anything else, look, long term, Microsoft is an extraordinary business. Over 400 million paying subscribers, Office, Windows, Cloud, Azure, Gam, gaming, everything, right? Single biggest AI bet on earth of any company if committed to something like $190 billion to AI infrastructure. So one day, this dip is gonna look like a gift. And I would genuinely love to own more Microsoft at the right time, and I want you to own it at the right time. So with a company this great, surely a 25% drop is a screaming buy, right? But that's what everybody is telling you on social media. So let's actually run the test instead of guessing. Let's run the three light questions here. So question number one is the money flowing in? Nope. Money is quietly leaving against the market. Microsoft is lagging. It's what we call a relative strength, it's negative. It's actually the weakest of the famous Magnificent 7 stocks right now. And the water is trading away from this corner of the bathtub. Right. And then you look at question number two: which side of the line are we on? And this is the killer. Microsoft is trading below every major trend line. In the long term, trend line is sloping down. And by the standard definition, this great company is in its own private bear market, right? Price under falling line is literally black ice for investors. And then question three is it resting or is it crashing? This isn't a quick rest, it's a slow, steady, grinding decline that's been going on for months. The trend is down, it's still pointing down. Basically, we're seeing red, red, red, red, red. Greatest software company on earth is right now a falling fricking knife. And yes, some people are buying it. Michael Burry is apparently bullish on it and all that sort of stuff. Well, guess what? He was bearish on NVIDIA. Nobody is right all the time. So don't buy something because one person tells you to. Now don't sell it either because I'm telling you I wouldn't want to buy it. You're gonna come to your own conclusion. But say this with me: a great company is not the same as a great stock. And the stock does not know you love it. The company doesn't love you back. A whole internet is telling you to buy the Microsoft dip this week, and I'm telling you what the rules say. Not yet. I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not a registered investment advisor telling you what to do. And I'm not abandoning it. I own it undoubtedly through an index fund somewhere, and I'm watching it with a plan. And the exact signal that would flip Microsoft for me back to a buy, price reclaiming its 150-day moving average line, that line flattening back up, turning back up, money starting to flow back into it, green volume picking up, and the day that happens and the light goes back to green, what am I gonna do? I'm gonna invest. And that's the difference between you know investing and hoping. And that's what I really want you guys to take away from this is the money, the institutional money, acts on rules, they act on structure, they don't make stuff up, they don't have gut feelings, they're not hoping for things to work out,

Ban The Word Cheap

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right? And what I want you to do is do this for all your holdings. Look at what has happened. Three of the most famous companies in America all down the lawn. Same headline, right? And three completely different answers. So fi is starting to look good. I still think it's a little early, but the trend line is picking up. There could be an opportunity here. Palantir, still looking decent, but it's rolled over. I'd wait on that. And Microsoft, a phenomenal company, is a falling knife. I wouldn't touch it. Now you've got to come up with what you want to make. But one of my mentors said to me, Felix, cheap is a word you're going to have to ban from your vocabulary. Don't ever, ever buy anything because you feel it's cheap. Because people thought plug was cheap at 50, at 40, at 30, at 20, at $2, so wherever it's trading right now, right? And they're down about 98%. I'm not saying Microsoft's going to go that way. Uh, it's too big a business for that to happen. It's very unlikely. But we're not trying to hit one jackpot. You're fielding a balanced team of green lights, you're benching the reds, and most importantly, always know your exit before you buy something. And literally that single rule, and I'll teach it to you on the weekend in full, will prevent 50, 60, 70% wipeouts. They are avoidable because those things are really what set people back. And I see that again and again and again. So you just watched me do this for three stocks, right? How many stocks do you own? Put it in the comments down below. How many do you own? 10, 20? How many are in your 401k that you haven't looked at in years? Running this test on three stocks here for me is very, very easy. Running it honestly across your entire portfolio, finding the reds you've been emotionally attached to, spotting the ambers that you kind of make excuses for, right? Or sizing correctly even for the greens, that's what changes your outcomes. That's what changes your retirements. And it's kind of hard to do on your own with your own money because you've got emotions in the way. But you don't have to do it alone. We'll do it together. And and maybe you felt, you know, that's not in your stomach sometime last week or in the last couple of weeks that, oh no, you know, what's going on in my portfolio? That feeling is literally your instinct telling you the truth. You have red lights in your portfolio. Everybody does that. I looked at, and you have roughly until the end of this month before the next move makes them very, very, very visible. So I'm going to take you through your own portfolio live with this exact

Rebuild Before The Next Leg

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system. We'll find the falling knives hiding in there. We fix the amber traps. Look at how we handle that best. We'll look at how we rebuild around green lights. So you walk in scared, maybe, or fearful or frustrated or whatever. And you walk out calm with a clear plan and confidence. And it's free. It's the only time I'm going to run this or ever have run this life for free. So register, go to mygradeportfolio.com. Do it before you close this video because the investors who get hurt in the next month are not the ones who don't care. And not the ones who are not smart. They're the ones who saw this, felt it, and told themselves they get to it later. So don't be that guy. And I'll see you on the live training. Let me know if you're going to show up for yourself, write red, green, or orange or amber in the comments. And I know that you're going to be there. Maybe that could be a representation of how you feel about your portfolio right now. And I'm going to enjoy the rest of New York here. It's our last day. We're heading west. And I look forward to seeing you guys on the weekend. All the best.