The August 11 Warning

SPEAKER_00 0:00

August 11th is the most dangerous day for the stock market this year. And most people have no idea it's coming. Wall Street is sharing this research with their clients right now, but not with you. And I wasn't gonna make this video, but I was just reading this this morning as I do, and I think you deserve to understand this too, because I know you've got money in the market. But first, Wall Street is about to lull millions of Americans into a false sense of security. And by the time they really realize what's happening, it'll be too late. So by the end of this video, you'd understand exactly what's coming, how to protect yourself, and if you're paying attention, how to spot one of the greatest buying opportunities of the decade. And here's the thing Wall Street sends this kind of research to their hedge fund clients, the institutional investors, and they charge tens of thousands of dollars for the service, but they don't send it to you. And I believe you deserve to see it too. And if you agree with me, I want you to write the word deserve in the comments right now so we can all see it. And because this is a little impromptu, I'm also gonna put together a beginner-friendly version of this entire research breakdown. So you do need your finance degree to follow along here. There's gonna be a link down below in the descriptions, it'll be pinned to the comments, completely free. Just download it. And let me be honest about why I decided to make this video here this morning. It's there is a dynamic in the financial world that's been bugging me for a long time. Wall Street institutions get information first. Retail investors, people like you and me, we get it last. And by the time it shows up on CNBC or in your newsfeed, guess what? The big money has already made their move. And the point of this community here is about closing that gap. It's about making sure you have the same information that a hedge fund manager sitting in a corner office in Glorious Manhattan has. So let me walk you through exactly what is happening right now and why August 11th is a date you need to have circled in your calendar.

Forced Index Buying Explained

SPEAKER_00 2:05

So let's start with what sounds like incredible news, right? SpaceX went public and now it's being added to the biggest index funds in America, which sounds great, right? More people owning SpaceX, price cope is up, everybody wins. But let me show you what's actually happening under the hood. First, you need to understand what a float is. And no, it is not a floater. And I'm gonna make this really simple for you. Imagine a company is a pizza, and the pizza has a hundred slices, but only five of those slices are actually available for regular people like you and me to buy on the stock market. The other 95 slices, they're locked away in a vault. That is what a 5% float means. SpaceX right now is a pizza where 95 slices are locked up and only five are sitting on the counter. And now here is where it gets wild. When a stock gets added to a big index like the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 1000, every single fund that tracks that index has to buy shares. It's not optional, it's not a choice, it's automatic. It's like a machine. The fund manager doesn't wake up and say, hmm, I feel like buying SpaceX today, no. The rules say the stock is in the index, you must own it, period. And there isn't just one index. So let me walk you through the calendar. The funds include Vanguard's VTI, one of the most popular funds in the world, and they started adding shares around June 19th. The FTSE Russell funds, like the Russell 1000, kicked in around June 26th, which is coming up a few days from me recording this. MSCI funds will kick in around June 29th. And the big one, the Nasdaq 100, which powers the massively popular QQQ ETF, which most of you probably own, those funds start adding around July 6th. Now add all of that up, and you're looking at $22 to $30 billion of buying of just SpaceX, that has to happen. These funds do not care about the prices. They're not looking at charts, they're not doing any analysis whatsoever. They're just buy. It's like pointing a fire hose at a kiddie pool, basically. And what does that do to the price? Well, it almost certainly causes a short-term rally. So if you're holding SpaceX right now, you're probably feeling like a genius. Your account's green, your friends are texting you. Well done, amazing, everything looks amazing. But here is no Wall Street as counting on you not paying attention. But before I show you what happens next, and trust me, you need to see this, you need to understand this. I want to take a step

The IPO Playbook And Free Training

SPEAKER_00 4:40

back and zoom out for a second. Do you remember what happened to the last big IPO boom? The Airbnb, the Coinboss box, the Roblox, the Rivian struggling to get a straight sentence out here. Some people made a lot of money on that. But a lot of people also lost a lot of money on that. Some of those stocks went down 70, 80%, while other people like 10x their account in a year. So why do the people make 10x? And why did some people lose money? Well, the people with the 10x, they had a playbook. And the playbook worked not just for the IPO, but for the coming six months, the coming 12 months after those big IPOs. And we're going to get some more of those. So I've already written out my plan, my exact trading strategy plan, investing strategy plan for the next 90 days. Written it out. I know exactly what I'm going to do. And what I want to do for you is I want to give that to you. I want to share that with you. But not as a document because it won't land, I guarantee it, but as an actual teaching session where I will sit you down for two hours and I'll teach you and I'll walk you through the exact process why I'm doing what I'm doing. And what I'm doing is just what Wall Street's doing, right? It's just what the funds are doing. I'm not making this up. I'm just following what my mentors have taught me. So this isn't about SpaceX, this isn't about anthropic or any of that. It's about what happens after these IPOs unwind. It's what happens in the market after we get this great big shakeup. And there'll be two kinds of people here. There'll be the kind of people who learn this, and there'll be the kind of people who'll wish they would have learned this about six months from now. So if you want to join me on that, I'm going to be doing that literally just before I'm catching a flight out of New York here, which is where I am right now. And um, you can sign up for that. You can grab yourself a free ticket at 90dayplaybook.org. So 90playbook.org. The links again down below in the description. It's completely free. You don't need to put a credit card in or anything like that. It's just a teaching session. And I'm also going to show you because July 4th is coming up. And July 4th this year is a big deal. I just got given this from uh we did a little mastermind here in New York. Um and one of our kind students um gave me that as a present. Uh so 250 years of the United States of America, amazing. Uh, we're gonna do something to celebrate that. That's gonna be bigger, more generous, more amazing than anything we've ever, ever done in the six years that we've done this for. So join me on Saturday morning, New York time, and you'll understand what this is all about. The 250 will have something to do with that. And it'll also work for you Europeans and and and and people in Asia and everywhere else, because it'll be morning time in New York, you know, when the market's open usually, but not a Saturday. So you guys will be awake as well. But but let me show you why understanding

Lockup Expiration And Share Flood

SPEAKER_00 7:25

this playbook is not an optional thing. Because what's about to happen on August 11th is gonna catch a lot of people off guard. Let me explain something that's called a lock-up period. Because this is the key to understanding what's common. When a company goes public, the insiders, the founders, the early investors, the venture capitalists, the cockroaches, let's say that out loud, um, who invested years ago, um, they can't just sell their shares the next day. They are locked up. It's a little bit like a waiting room. You're holding very valuable shares, but there's a sign on the door that says you cannot leave yet. And these locks have expiry dates. Now, why the lock exists in the first place? Simple. Without them, insiders would dump their shares on day one, the price would crash, and nobody would ever trust an IPO again. So the SEC essentially says, you have to wait. You can't sell right away. It's sort of a protection mechanism for the public, apparently. So the most important thing about it that people don't realize is lockup explorations are not one big event. SpaceX uses a fairly complex staggered system. It's like a series of release valves, each one letting more shares into the market at different times. So let me walk you through the full unlock schedule, and my team will hopefully put that on the on the on the screen here for you. Because this is the countdown you need to know. You're gonna want to write this down. So, right now, only 5% of all SpaceX shares are available to trade, right? That's our kiddie pool. August 11th, the supply jumps from 5% to 25%. That is five times more in a single day. And this is the big one. This is the date you must circle in your diary. And then yes, August 21st, it becomes 32%, September uh 10th it becomes 39%, uh, September 25th, it becomes 46%, October 10th becomes 53%, and so on. But the most important one is the first one. Because you have this kiddie pool of shares right now, and on August 11th, someone's gonna open the floodgates, five times more shares hit the market overnight. And do you think it's selling? Insiders can sell. The people who got in at 10 bucks a share, they've been waiting for years for this day. So some of them are not gonna sell because they think the company is bad. I'm gonna upload this particular video with one of these bad boys, which is just amazing, Starlink, incredible. They're selling because they want to diversify their portfolio. They want to buy another house, another yacht, you know, um, send the fourth mistress some money finally. And then they're gonna have to pay some taxes on that. So they have some reason to take money off the table. And who's on the other side of the trade? Well, it's you, the retail investor, who just got pulled in by the index fund. Yeah, you are all gonna own SpaceX. Every single one of you is gonna own SpaceX, basically. Your 401k will own, your retirement accounts, your index funds bought SpaceX for you, and you might not have even realized it. Now the insider's about to sell directly into your buying. This isn't a theory, right? Let me talk to you about Facebook. Go back a few years. Facebook had its IPO in May of 2012. When the first lockup expired, three months later, the stock fell about 50%. The smartest company in social media, a company that everybody knew was going to dominate, lost half of its value. Not because the business was bad, the business was phenomenal, it dropped because of supply mechanics. Too much water into that kiddie pool. So more shares hit the market than buyers could absorb. And the key insight here is this I need to really hear this. Wall Street creates the demand with the index inclusions, and then the insiders sell into that demand. It's not a conspiracy theory, it's not illegal. No, it's just how the machine works. And they're counting on you to not understand the time. But this isn't even a SpaceX problem, it is a market problem, and it goes way deeper than one stock.

The Facebook Lesson On Supply

SPEAKER_00 11:18

So if we zoom out for a little bit, because why don't I just show you could and should concern every single person who has a retirement account, right? You got a retirement account, put a retirement in the comments down below. Right now, the top 10 stocks in the SP 500, mostly AI and tech companies, make up roughly 40% of the index. So four of every $10 in the SP 500 is sitting in just 10 companies, right? So if I give you some perspective on that, and maybe we can put a chart on the screen here for you as well. Between 1990 and 2015, the top 10 stocks were about 20% of the market. That was a normal range for 25 years. Now we're at double that concentration. Does that sound healthy to you? Does that sound diversified? So why does it matter to you? Well, if you own an SP 500 index fund, and very likely you do, it's going to be in your 401k, your IRA, you know, maybe you borrowed it yourself, you probably think I'm diversified. I own 500 companies, isn't that brilliant? But in reality, almost half your money is sitting in just 10 stocks. So you're not really owning 500 companies equally, you're making a massive bet on 10. And I want to walk you through every time this has happened before because this is the part where history screams at us and

S&P 500 Concentration Through History

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we refuse to listen. Let's go back to 1870, railroads. Railroads made up 63% of the entire US stock market. They were the AI of the 19th century. And everyone said, oh, it's the future, you can't lose. Railroads are going to transform America. And they were right, railroads did transform America, but the crash that followed devastated a generation of investors. The technology was real, the prices went up. Fast forward about a hundred years to 1972. There was something there called the Nifty 50. It was a group of about 50 blue chip stocks: Coca-Cola, Disney, McDonald's, Polaroid, Xerox, the absolute safest and most trusted names in America. And actually, I do have a Polaroid camera lying around here somewhere, but it makes me an oddbot, right? Now the advice Wall Street was giving people then was just buy them and hold them forever. They're one decision stocks, you buy them once and you never ever sell them. They were trading at an average of about 42 times their profits. Some at 80 times profits. And then 1973 came about. Inflation spiked like it just did in the US. Interest rates were rising, a recession set in, and the Dow dropped 45%. Worst decline since the Great Depression. Disney fell like 87%. Like the Mickey Mass company, right? Children, everybody and everyone in the world loved them. They lost almost 90% of their value. Polaroid fell 91% and went bankrupt. Avon fell 86%. Xerox fell 71%. McDonald's fell over 70%. And these were not speculative garbage companies. These were the absolute safest blue chips in America. Great companies. Terrible prices. And then there's Japan in 1989. And I'm seeing that parallel more and more. Japanese stocks hit a peak and it took 30 years to recover that peak. Think about that. An entire generation of investors waiting their entire adult lives just to go back to break-even. And then we had the dot-com bubb. The Nasdaq peaked in March 2000. By October of 2002, it had fallen 78%. I started investing in 1999. It was fun. It really wasn't. And honestly, it's one of the reasons I do this because I remember the pain very, very distinctly. And that took 15 years to recover as well. 15 years of waiting if you bought at the top. So the pattern is there. Every generation thinks this time it's different. The technology changes, the companies change, but the human psychology, the greed, the fear, the FOMO, right? The cycle, that never changes. The pattern isn't broken. We just forget about it. And now because SpaceX, the most hyped IPO in a decade, it's being crammed into the same concentrated indices. Your index fund isn't diversifying you anymore. No, it's doubling down on the same crowded trade. So, yes, this market is very, very concentrated. Insiders are going to dump some of these shares. And your index funds just force bought the most hyped stocked in a decade. Sounds kind of grim, right? But this is also how and where fortunes are made, you see. Because everything I just told you sounds scary and it sort of should. But what separates the people who build wealth from the people who don't is the

How Smart Money Buys After Hype

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people who build wealth don't just see the risk, they see the roadmap, they see the path. Every IPO in history follows the same script. I don't think SpaceX will be all that different. And once you understand that script, you don't have to be the victim. You can be one of the ones buying when everyone else is running for the exits. Because think about the dot-com bust. If you bought after the bust, you became tremendously wealthy. In fact, you had 15 years to buy after the bust and you became tremendously wealthy, but people don't because they're like, oh my, the market isn't going up, I'm not going to buy it. And why is that? Because fear kicks in. Fear replaces greed, and the people who bought at the top, they sell. They panic, they capitulate, and the losses get locked in. And the institutions, they don't buy during the hype. They buy after the hype, after the price has been beaten down, after the people who panicked and bought up the top for FOMO left. The smart investors, the hedge funds, the sovereign wealth funds, they have patient capital. So they can buy on a red day and they also bring credibility, which means more people are going to buy it because they're going to read about it three months later in the filings. So their buying creates a flaw under the stock, a new level of support that wasn't there before. And then people start to look at the market again and go, well, maybe it isn't so bad. These guys are buying. And then you know the whole thing starts again. The market is a cycle, it's a pattern. It happens again and again and again. And that's why there is a roadmap. That's why there is literally a roadmap for the next 90 days. If you want to learn what that roadmap is based on the very principles that the institutional investors use, institutional traders use, come and join me on Saturday. Learn it. There's a link down below to it. And that roadmap hasn't changed in 50 years. Not one bit. I know because I've got mentors who learned this 50 years ago. They're a little bit older than me. And the only thing that really changes is that which retail investors learn the lesson? And right now, SpaceX is somewhere in that phase of like boom and starting to come down a little bit. Let's see what the index fund inclusion does in the next few days. And then we get that float, which means all that supply of shares hits the market. And maybe you're thinking, oh, it's all rigged, it's all manipulated. Well, it's an opinion, but it doesn't change anything. So you are an investor, you are a money manager, you've got money in the market, even if it's just sitting in your 401k and the market is running the same script it's been running for 50 years, and it doesn't care whether you read the script.

Three Action Plans For Any Investor

SPEAKER_00 18:30

So, what do we do with all this information? How do we act on this? Well, let me give you a simple framework here. Three scenarios, three action plans. Find the one that fits you the best. And we're going to go a lot deeper, obviously, on Saturday, because we have two hours to do it. Say you bought shares in the IPO, or maybe just after the IPO in the open market. So here's your checklist. First, understand the unlock schedule. I'd literally print it out and put it on your wall. August 11th is the first major event there, right? Mark, every day through October 25th, know when supply is increasing, so you're not caught off guard. Second, understand your risk. How much of your total portfolio is in SpaceX? If it's more than 5 to 10%, that is not a diversified investment. That is some sort of I love Elon concentrated bet. And concentrated bets can go wrong in a very, very big way. Third, consider trimming before August 11th. Now, I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not a registered investment advisor, I'm telling you what to do. I'm just saying think about these things. You gotta come to an informed decision. And most people don't think about these things, which makes us, you know, kind of normal retail investors. So I'm not saying panic sell it. I'm just saying strategically review your position while the price is where it is. Maybe you're happy, maybe you want to realize some of those gains. And if you believe in SpaceX in the long term, and there are plenty of reasons to, right? You can always re-enter SpaceX in what I call phase four at a potentially much lower price. Now, but the price might not go down. It's also a possibility. And you're gonna live with that uncertainty and you're gonna live with like missing out on stuff because it'll happen every single day. It happens every single week. There are plenty of stocks last week that went up, you know, 30, 50, 80%, and you didn't know they were there, you missed out on them. That's okay. We've got to accept that, right? We don't need to take advantage of every opportunity. But if you just look at it that like that, what I just said, you're starting to play the game more like institutions. And finally, set some alerts, know your exit points before your emotions kick in. Decide now when you're calm and thinking clearly, not later when the stock's down 30%, and you're then panicking when you want to sell, when you want to buy more, what your plan is. And this applies to you even if you own VTI, VOO, QQQ, target date funds, or pretty much any broad market fund. Because what most people don't realize is you're about to own SpaceX, whether you want to or not. Your index fund is buying it automatically, you didn't choose it, the index rules dead. So should you sell your index fund? It's extreme. Index investing is still one of the best long-term strategies for most people. It's a very simple thing to do. You buy it, you forget about it. But you need to be aware of what's happening inside your fund. It is no longer a broadly diversified fund, it is a tech fund. So the concentration risk is something you need to understand. And if you then run out in addition, you buy tech stocks. Well, is that really a good idea? Right? So, you know, what did I buy last week? Aperol companies, for example. Um, random stuff, pipeline companies, that sort of thing. Stuff that has almost no AI connection because I want to diversify a little bit. And on a day when the NASDAQ's down 3% and I'm at zero, I'm winning. Right? And I can sleep better, and I know my money is protected, and I'm not exposed like some people are, who bow then down ten or twenty or thirty percent, which just means you're taking on far too much risk. So consider adding diversification outside of those big US tech stocks. Anything that doesn't move in lockstep with AI, basically. And if you're that long-term investor and you've got that 10-year, 20-year time horizon, just don't look at your account every single day. If the market corrects and your safe index funds feel that correction hard because of how concentrated they are, remember that corrections can also be buying opportunities if your time horizon is long enough, right? And I also do that. So when we have those dips, I think in February we had the last big one. I just bought the index. Didn't need to be right. It was just profitable, right? Last year, May, after the terror thing, you know, just buy the bloody index. I don't know what stock's gonna go up, so just buy the bloody index in those moments. And that can be very, very profitable. So don't let a red day destroy your portfolio or your 20-year plan. But if you are in group three and you haven't bought SpaceX and you're not sure what to do, maybe you're feeling left out watching everybody else get excited, maybe you think it's totally overpriced. Um, my advice, and this is actually probably the only piece of advice in this video, is good, be patient. There is a buying opportunity for everything. And you don't need to own everything. You don't need to own Tesla, you don't need to own NVIDIA, you don't need to own these stocks. You probably do through your index funds anyway. And that's what I'm saying. You probably can get exposure to this anyway, whether you want to or not. So maybe you just don't need to focus on SpaceX, right? But instead, what I'd say to you is use this time to learn. Study the playbook, study what's coming, how understand how these lockups work. Read the research I'm attaching to this video so that when the phase comes where stuff hits the fan in a bad way, and it'll come. It'll come. And it might be 12 months from now, it might be 18 months from now. At that point, you want to be ready to act without emotion, but with a plan. And honestly, boring is where fortunes are made. The most unsexy, most overlooked phase of any investment cycle is where the real money is made. But you have to be prepared before it arrives. You have to understand how it works before it arrives. If you wait until it's obvious, you've already missed it. And look, everything I just taught you the index fund mechanics, the lockup schedule, the playbook, we just covered that as a on a very high level. We're going to go much deeper on that on Saturday if you join me. Links down below. The concentration risk and everything else, this isn't just about SpaceX. It's the framework for every major IPO phase, it's the framework for every mega major market phase. It worked for Facebook and Amazon and Google and Uber and Airbnb and all of those. And it'll work for the next SpaceX five years from now. So it's not about memorizing one stock, it's about understanding how the market actually works. The machinery behind the curtain.

Recap Of Risks And Opportunities

SPEAKER_00 24:40

So you're never surprised again. So let's do a quick recap. First alarm bell, $30 billion in forced buying is about to slam into a 5% float of SpaceX, right? Fire hose into kiddie pool. Alarm bell two, August 11th. Insiders unlock five times the current supply, billions in potential selling, aimed directly at the retail investor. But there's a but there I should probably mention. A lot of these guys are very wealthy who own a lot of SpaceX and they don't like paying a lot of tax. So they're going to borrow against their shares. They're going to do some option strategies to protect their shares. And that'll still but depress the price somewhat, but it won't be as blatant, as obvious as selling, man. And then alarm bell three is the top 10 stocks up 40% of the market. The same concentration level that preceded the nifty crash, the dot com crash, and every major correction in modern history. So if you learn something in this video, if it changed how about how you think about your portfolio, well, share it with somebody. So more people can learn this. And I apologize this is maybe a little bit less structure than it than it ought to be. I just thought this is something really, really important and worth sharing. And join me on Saturday. Again, I wasn't going to do that training as I'm about to hop on a flight straight afterwards. But I think it is that important. And show up for yourself, grab yourself that free seat, share that link with other people. You might also benefit from some real financial education and will help to empower you so you can make better decisions. So you know what's coming. So you can be a winner in what is coming rather than be sitting on the sidelines or FOMO buying into something which is usually where most people sit. Now, thank you for watching, and I wish you a beautiful week.