The Big Tech Stalemate Opportunity

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Some of the biggest and most profitable tech stocks have barely moved in two years, while the Nasdaq has exploded up by 70% in the same period, and that has created a powder cake opportunity for us. I'm the guy who bought oil stocks six months before the war broke out. Not because I have a crystal ball, but because I could see the big money moving into oil stocks, and I'm up very nicely about 60% on this right now, or the SP has moved just about 9%. So I made like five times more than the market. And I believe this rotation could be even bigger and faster. Why? Because I noticed that the big money is moving faster and faster from bucket to bucket, from sector to sector, and they hop. And the truth that nobody wants to tell you is that Wall Street no longer buys stocks for their quality. They don't care about profits. They don't care about management. Now time has passed. All they care about now is momentum. And it may sound fickle, and I know you're used to this buy and hold philosophy, right? We've all been taught it. Our parents were taught it. But if you don't understand this, I believe you're going to get left behind. You will hold tech stocks and you'll make like 0%. Or the Nasdaq does 70%. Or you'll play it safer and you buy the SP and you'll make single digits, like 9% since the before the war broke out. And people like me made five times that because we bought oil stocks at the right moment. So in the next 20 minutes, I'm going to explain this opportunity to you. I'm going to give you both an ETF, so an index fund, and three individual stock opportunities. And if you want to understand that, stick around. I warn you though, the video is going to be fairly information-tense, even though I'm I'm on the move here. I'm in the south of France, as you can maybe see in the window there, the reflection. But to make this really, really land for you, I'm going to give you more than just this video. I'm going to give you a full bonus, free research report on everything I'm covering here, plus more we have time for in the short videos. You can download that for free at FelixFriends.org slash software. So it's free, and I mean truly free, it's just there for you. Take advantage of it. Links down below in the description.

Why Software Lagged The Nasdaq

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Now let me show you something first that most people enlist. Over the last two years, two things have happened that created a crazy mismatch. The Nasdaq 100, tracked by QQQ, if you're an index fund investor, it's up about 70% in the last two years. So if you put $10,000 into the Nasdaq in 2024, you'd have about $17,000 right now, which is pretty good, right? But the biggest tech stocks out there, the software companies, they didn't just go up slower, they actually went down in the same time period. We're talking about a decline of about 8%. So instead of 10K turning into 17K, you'd be sitting at $9,000 in a bit while your friend who just bought the Nasdaq index made loads of money. How is that possible? That software, which is supposed to be the future, is going down while everything else is going up massively. And that's exactly why this is creating an opportunity. Of course, the question becomes why does the gap exist, right? A couple of things you need to understand, and then I'm going to walk you through the actual stocks. So why would professional investors, the people managing billions of dollars, deliberately bet against software? Now the answer will tell you everything you

The AI Fear Trade And Crowding

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need to know. There is a narrative on Wall Street, very powerful narrative, powerful enough that hedge funds, the smartest money in the world, are betting billions of dollars against it, and they've been doing it for two years. They've made lots of money on this, so they've been right in a sense. In a sense, they make their own right and wrong. And their story is this: AI is going to kill all software companies. Why? Because AI can do what those software companies can do, but better and faster and cheaper. Which sounds scary, right? If you're a software investor. So hedge funds decided to make money on the fear. They might have also had something to do with creating the fear, because these talking heads go on television, right? So those hedge funds so far have made $24 billion betting that software stocks would go down. Think about that. $24 billion on one bet. And when that much money is betting on one direction, it creates an imbalance. Think about it this way. If all your friends are standing on one side of a boat, what happens? You move the whole boat, right? Everyone's crowded on one side, the boat gets, you know, lopsided. But here's the thing about boats: the more crowded one side gets, the more likely it is to tip the other way because people will notice it and go, oh my God, we're gonna fall over, let's run to the other side. And then everybody wants the other side and you do the opposite, right? Is that a nice illustration? Me leaning left and right. So this video isn't about convincing you whether or not AI will kill software. Doesn't matter. I'm here to show you how to potentially profit from what happens next, regardless of what happens to software.

Why Buy And Hold Breaks

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The bottom line is that investing used to be like planting trees. You buy a famous company, you plant it in your brokerage account, and you ignore it and you check back in 20 years, and what a beautiful tree shoe would be. But today, the world changes too fast for that. Because of AI and technology shifts, a company that looks like a mighty oak today can be chopped down into chopsticks in just two years. So if you just buy and hold one company forever, you might end up holding it all the way down to zero. So what does Wall Street do instead? What are the pros do instead? They surf. Instead of marrying a stock, I always say, don't marry the stock, marry the girl. So you understand that concept now. Maybe you're still doubtful. But here's the thing: understanding the framework and the concept isn't enough. You need to actually position for it. And there is a very specific time window to do that. Do you remember the big IPO boom? The last one? Not SpaceX. I'm talking 2020. Airbnb, Coinbase, Roblox, Rivian. Where were you when that was happening? Did you make money? Or maybe you made some money and then you handed it back to the nice fella on Wall Street because he really needed another Lamborghini. Or maybe you just sat on the sidelines and you were waiting for the dip, right? Other people made 10 times their money. So be honest with yourself for a moment here and try to remember that period because nobody wants to admit exactly this. The people who build real wealth, the kind that changes your future, your family's future for generations, they do it by recognizing moments and patterns, patterns like right

IPO Summer, Legacy, And The Workshop

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now. I call this the IPO summer. Companies that have been waiting on the sidelines for decades are about to go enlist on the stock exchange. It isn't just SpaceX, loads of others. And the people who know how to position for this, the people who understand the five-year cycle this historically kicks off, they're going to build wealth machines. And five years from now, you're going to be in one of two groups. Group number one, the people who watched it happen. Again, just like 2020, or like 2010, or like 1998. Just like they watched every major opportunity pass them by. And then you have group number two, the people who showed up, who learned Wall Street's playbook, who built something that actually matters for themselves, for their children, for their retirement, for their legacy. So you gotta pick a group here. Put group number one or group number two in the chat. Which group do you want to be? And just to get really real with you, I'm heading to New York next week, so I'm trying to learn American. Father's Day. This is this weekend. And you might be thinking, random, why are you talking about Father's Day? This is not about you having another beer, sleeping on the sofa or doing a barbecue, whatever you do on Father's Day. Everyone needs to ask themselves this one question here. What legacy am I building? If you retire today, right now, your earnings will stop right now. Would you be taken care of? Would your family be taken care of? If something happened to you tomorrow, God forbid, did you build something that lasts? Did you leave something that you'd be proud of? And right now, standing at the beginning of this five-year window where the people who learn how to build wealth are really gonna separate themselves from everybody else. And I'm not saying buy all the overhyped IPOs, I'm not saying that at all. What I'm saying is learn the skills that separate the pros from the hamagers. And I believe this is so important. I'm gonna do something on Father's Day for you. I'm gonna hold a live workshop on Father's Day at 7 p.m. New York time, live from New York, actually. And I call it how to turn the IPO summer into a five-year wealth machine. Never taught this material before. And honestly, I might never do this again because the next opportunity like this will be maybe in 10 years. So if you want to be there with me, be there live. Don't ask me for a replay. We don't do those. It's gonna be two hours long, and there's a link down below. It's completely free. There are 10,000 tickets to this. Wealthmachine.org. And over half of those tickets are already gone as I'm recording this. So by the time you watch this, there might not be that many left. Wealthmachine.org is the link in the description. It's also in the comments down below. Free. No questions asked, no credit card needed, nothing. So if you want to be part of that event, if you're gonna show up for yourself, write wealth machine in the comments and let me know that you're gonna be there, and you're gonna show up for yourself. But the promise of this video to get back to it is to help you understand the forces first, right? So Sunday is the big vision, it's the detail. We're gonna go into much, much more detail than a 20-minute video like this video like this can. But let's get into these three

The Rubber Band Effect Framework

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stocks. So we've talked about the boat, right? One simple rule you need to learn right now, which I call follow the money. And the framework is called, or I call it the rubber band effect. And it works because human nature doesn't really change very much. Imagine a rubber band, right? When you stretch a rubber band really, really, really far in one direction, what happens? What happens? It gets really, really tight, right? And the further you stretch it, the more pressure builds up. And then eventually that pressure becomes too much and suddenly it snaps back in the other direction. It snaps even harder than when it was stretched. Stock markets are about the same way, same like the both metaphors. So the more extreme the crowding, the more pressure builds up. So what we're seeing right now in software, particularly three stocks I'm gonna give you, is this rubber band stretched out as far as I've seen it in years. And if I see it, I know lots of other people are seeing it because we all got taught the same rules. I used to be a banker. And there's a process to identify when the snap's about to happen. And if you know the steps, you could be ready when it does. So let me give you the big picture here. Three steps. We're gonna go much, much deeper on this on Sunday, so make sure you join me there. Links down below. The first step is figuring out exactly how crowded one side of the boat is. Professional investors track something called positioning, and this is basically a measure of how many people are betting up versus how many people are betting on it going down, because that's what Wall Street does, they don't care which way it goes, they make money either way. Now, normally positioning is fairly balanced, right? It's a little bit up, a little bit down. But right now, software is incredibly lopsided. Way more money is spetting on software going down than up. So if a tiny piece of information comes out that makes people think software isn't going to disappear, I mean, have you canceled your Microsoft subscriptions? Probably not, right? Because the truth is, yes, AI makes it easier to build software, but selling software, distributing software, getting companies with 100,000 employees to buy 100,000 licenses from you, that is still really, really hard, and AI doesn't help you with that. The second spot step, even, the second step is look for the crack. And it's the first sign that the boat is about to tip over, and it's when the price of a stock breaks through a level where a lot of people thought it would stay below it. And if I might, and if I may um torture you with a stock chart for a moment, there is an ETF called IGV, it's the software ETF, index fund. And it's been having a pretty hard time, right? It's come down a lot in the beginning of 2026, really, really nasty, and the lows down here are about 74. And then it's recovering. And you see that little yellow line there, the moving average line, it seems to be recovering quite nicely. And what we just did is that we collapsed once again, right? The whole inflation fear, and now we appear to be bouncing off that. And you might be watching this a few days after I record this. That doesn't really matter. The concept, the principle is always there, which is why I always say learn how to fish, don't ask for fish, right? So we're at a point where I'm very interested in potentially buying this. Again, I'm not telling you to buy it, I'm just giving you some education here. It's not financial advice, but that's your second step. And then your third step is the forced buying.

Forced Buying And Short Squeezes

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And this is kind of the scariest part. It's when the boat is about to really tip over, a couple of people are falling overboard. So you're like, oh my god, what do we do? Well, everybody runs to the opposite side of the boat, right? Because if they don't, they're gonna fall overboard too, and they'll drown. And that's exactly what Walsh has to do. Because the people who bet on software going down, because it has a lot, making a lot of money in that direction. Well, what happens when it goes back up? What happens when it goes back up and their profits get erased and suddenly, oh my god, now they're losing money. Because they only make money on the way down. The only way to close a bet that a stock will go down is to buy the stock. And you might have heard about shorting, which is what this is. If you're shorting a stock, you're selling it. You don't own it, you just sold it. So you're minus a stock in your portfolio. The only way to go back from minus to zero is to buy a stock. And it creates a rush of buying. And these guys are not buying because the stock or industry is getting better. It's just mechanical buying, it's forced buying, it's risk management, it's the rubber band snapping back, it's everyone running from one side of the boat to the other. Let me give you an example of one of these, a recent one. And let me look at the actual three stocks there. Avis. Avis had a beautiful rally up. I bought it here. It made a lot of money, it's beautiful. Took some profits somewhere, I can't remember where. I think it was about 80% up. And then what happened? Well, it went all the way down again, right? Really, really down. So a lot of people made a lot of money on the way down. And then what happened? As the stock went back up, a short squeeze happened. So the stock went up, not because car rental is suddenly a sexier business. No, it happened purely because all the people who had shorted this to make money on the way going down, they were now losing their shirt. And this thing went up like 400%, and then it collapsed again. And I know some of my mentors made a lot of money on it going down again. This is what trading is called. And there's a little thing at the bottom of the screen here, which shows you how much trading was happening there and how the institutions were buying in green every single day to get out of their positions. And the smart investors, in my humble opinion, are ready for this kind of pattern on software. I'm not promising you any financial outcomes, obviously, but I'm seeing a similar pattern here. So how do we play

The IGV Software ETF Setup

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this? Well, the simplest way to play this is to buy the index fund, for example, IGV. And again, I'm not telling you to buy it, I'm just saying, seeing a similar pattern here. We've come up, we've got gone down again, we're bouncing off, we're finding some support down here at the 50-day moving average line, which is a good thing. And it's uh it's an ETF that basically holds 110 leading software companies, everybody like Greeno Oracle, Palo Alto, Microsoft, Palangria, CrowdStrike, all that stuff. So one click, you get exposure to the entire sector. And maybe you're still thinking, but I think software is gonna get killed by AI. All right. So you think everyone's gonna cancel their Microsoft Office subscriptions, right? Because you think you think um if somebody made you think if somebody made a free word processor, they would use that instead. Well, someone's made that already. It's called Google Docs. I've got one open here on the screen. It's brilliant, I use it all the time. Have I still got Microsoft Office? Yes, I do. Why? No idea. The truth is, people, especially enterprises, don't cancel software subscriptions very lightly because their whole system is kind of interwoven with us. So the reality is the disruption already came, loads of the stuff is already available for free, but people are still paying for the paid because they've always done it and it's embedded in their systems.

Three Stock Ideas And How To Think

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Now, I also promised to walk you through three stocks. So stock number one is CVLT. It's called Commod Systems. The second stock is Mara Holdings, and I'm gonna give you a third one as well, with a straightforward explanation of why I like these ones particularly. So Commod is essentially a cyber resilience and data protection company. So everyone's panicking about AI creating software. These are guys are building the tools that protect the data that AI runs on. Think about it. Every company on the planet needs to back up and protect their data, and cyber attacks are increasing because AI can do the cyber attacks. So we need more of what Commvault does. They still have a billion dollars in revenue, growing 19% a year. They've got enterprise clients everywhere. They're partnering with companies like CrowdStrike, they just acquired another AI data security company, and no one's gonna cut cybersecurity spending because you get hacked, you're finished. Now, if you pull up the chart here, this stock's been hammered pretty harshly. It's down about 60 odd percent, and it's now in a recovery phase. And what do we look for? Well, we look for the the the catalyst, which was here. You see some bigly institutional buying happening there suddenly, as we're kind of coming out of this zigzaggedy heartbeat pattern there. And now we're grounding, grinding our way up. Each low is higher than the previous low, which is definitely a good thing from a chartist point of view. And we're seeing that yellow moving average line indicating some positive momentum. And you might think these charts are a lot of gobbledygook. I used to think that too. Well, let me teach them to you properly on Sunday. There's a reason, right? By the way, right, why we're exactly where we are right now as I'm recording this, and by the time you're watching this, a chart will look somewhat different. Again, that really doesn't matter. So let me walk you through stock number two. Expensify. And I know it's a teeny tiny company, it's trading at a dollar and a bit. And normally I'd be very cautious about something this small, especially something that um peaked at $50. So this thing is down about 97%. Cheap, right? People said cheap all the way down. Cheap is not the reason to look at something like this ever. What is expensifying? Expense management platform. Companies use it to track expenses, corporate credit cards, pay their bills, that sort of thing. And they've got millions of users. Absolutely hammered, but they're still generating cash. They just did a 25 million share buyback, which tells you management thinks the stock's, I was gonna say cheap. I'm not allowed to use that word, am I? Um, they've integrated AI into their platform. They launched something that lets AI assistance like Chat GPT plug directly into the expense data. So you've got a company that's been beaten down to basically nothing. Management is buying back shares, and they're actually embracing AI of being killed by it. When you look at the chart, it appears to be bottoming out. Because every single low that we're seeing here, they're getting higher and higher and higher, which is exactly the kind of pattern you want to see. We saw some pretty bigly institutional buying happening there, but it's tiny, it's risky. So I'm not telling you to run it and buy it, but in a quiz-squeeze scenario, the smallest names with the highest short interest often move the fastest. Now, clearly, speculative play, clearly flagged as risque, as they say in the south of France. Now, the third stock is called Mara. And let me just zoom out on the chart for you to give you a little bit of a feel for what pain looks like for the buy and hold crowd. Imagine you bought this at the top and you're down 83%. And we've been holding, keeping that secret for uh four years now from your wife. This used to be marathon digital, by the way. And it's a real squeeze, Candle, because over a quarter of this company's tradable shares are being shorted right now. Now, this used to be a Bitcoin mining company, and I know what you're thinking, Looney stock, but they're pivoting into something bigger. They're acquiring energy infrastructure. They're buying a company called Long Ridge Energy, and they're building out AI data center capacity. It seems these guys hop onto whatever the latest thing is. So again, a lot of buy and hold play here, but they're becoming an energy and AI infrastructure play. So why is there squeeze potential? You've got a stock that's down 80 something percent. You've got a quarter of the sales, you've got a quarter of the shares sold short. And if Bitcoin rallies or if the AI infrastructure starts getting attention, you can get exactly the kind of forced buying we're talking about with Avis. So what am I seeing on this chart that I'm liking? Well, I see the lows, low there, low there, low here, sort of bottoming out. Inverse head and shoulder, you might call it, which actually is probably the only chart pattern that I actually care about. And then we got lows that are go higher and higher and higher. We're actually grinding our way quite up, up quite nicely. Now, this won't go up in a straight line, I guarantee you that. There are too many losers in this already. You're going to want to sell every time we get a little bit higher, but it's moving and it's showing signs of this could be an interesting one, which is why I'm mentioning it. I'm not telling you to buy it. I don't want to be very, very clear with that. Now, of course, you have to know when to sell and how to set it up. And I think you have a responsibility and you have to think responsibly about position sizing and everything else, and think about how it fits into your portfolio and all of that. But the quick ball case for each of these is Comvol, cybersecurity resilience. So non-negotiable spending, a billion in revenue, punished pretty harshly, expensify teeny tiny, beaten down, management buying back shares, embracing AI, and then Mara, the biggest short squeeze candidate we have here, pivoting into AI energy infrastructure.

Risk, Selling, And Final Invitation

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Now, are there more layers to this particular French onion? Yes, of course they are. I can't teach you everything that is about investing in sort of a 20-minute video, which is precisely why I'm running a live workshop. You can ask me questions. I'm doing that for you guys on Fareless Day. Uh, women, of course, are also welcome. We are um not that sexist yet. Um, and honestly, I'd encourage you to bring your bring your better half, bring your teenage children if you have them, and learn together. Because the skill of managing money is, I think, the most powerful skill we're going to acquire. And I'm going to walk you through a much more detailed run through of setups, not just for software, but for everything. And I truly believe the old playbook, this buying whole playbook, it doesn't work anymore. Not for stocks. It doesn't even work for sector index funds. It probably works for the SP 500. I think that's a very, very, very fair thing to say. Uh, and I would never discourage anybody from buying the SP 500. Um, it'll give you average returns in the long run if you've got a long run. But many of you are buying stocks. Many of you are buying AI or space or quantum or whatever index funds. So you're not a buy and hold person. You tell yourself that, but you're not really. You're actually making selections. And in that world, buy and hold, I think, is very, very dangerous because the speed at which money moves around is not greater than ever. It's how Wall Street makes money. Technology disruptions are faster and faster and faster. And, you know, we used to have the leading phone company in the world. What was it called? Nokia, right? And then there was Blackberry for business. I used to love my Blackberry. Um, that's when I was a banker. You can tell how many years ago that was. And then they pretty much went out of business. Yeah, they're still around, but you know, the product is dead. Cisco was the most exciting software company around. And you can think of thousands such examples. The money went into them and the money left, and it found somewhere better to make more money. So come and join me on Sunday. It'll be free, it'll be live, it'll be two hours, and I'll teach you the system that I use every single week. Whether you're an investor, whether you're a trader, whether you're buying stocks or index funds, or if you're just interested in how to responsibly grow your investments, protect your investments, come and join us. Wealthmachine.org is the link, is the link down below in the description and in the comments. And if you got some value from this, and if you think someone might get value from the live workshop, send them the link, share it with the people, and I wish you all the best.