SPEAKER_01: 0:00

In just a few days, the largest wealth transfer in American history begins. It is not a crash, it is not a bailout, it is a flood. 4.7 trillion dollars is about to pour into the US economy, and 90% of investors have no idea where it's coming. Wall Street knows about it. Trump's plan isn't just policy. It's a market catalyst that'll create millionaires and it'll destroy portfolios that aren't positioned correctly. And I'm going to show you the exact timeline, the five waves of capital flow, and the six sectors that'll absorb this money first. But here's the catch. The window closes fast. Stay till the end, and I'll give you the exact dates and positioning strategy that Winston back there dug out. He's a very smart, uh, financially trained gold retriever. My name is Felix Breen. I've spent years in banking and law, and for the last 15 years, we've been analyzing policy and market cycles. I warned about the 2022 inflation spike when everybody said it was transitory. This is not political. I don't care if you love Trump or hate him. What I care about is what happens when 4.7 trillion hits the market because history shows us exactly what comes next. And if you're not positioned, you watch on the sidelines, while others multiply their wealth. So let's break this down step by step. Here's what most people miss. Trump's 2025 tax cuts, the big beautiful bill and the Jobs Act 2.0, wasn't just about lower interest rates, it's about timing. The bill passed in March 2025, but the impact hits in three waves. Wave number one is April to June 2026, tax refund season. They're pulling it forward this year. It's going to start at the end of February. Wave number two, July to September 2026. Corporate repatriations. I'll break that down for you. And then wave number three is the fourth quarter of this year. And that's all about bonus depreciation and capital expenditure. Let me explain why this matters. According to the Congressional Budget Office and Treasury estimates, you, the individual, will get 1.2 trillion in tax refunds,$8,500 per household. Corporations will get$2.1 trillion in corporate cash repatriation from overseas and$1.4 trillion in accelerated depreciation in business investments. The total flowing into the economy is a whopping, staggering, mind-boggling$4.7 trillion in just nine months. For context, that is three times the size of the 2008 bank bailout. Some of my buddies lost their jobs. Nobody sees any sympathy for the Lehman Brother bankers, so I don't know why. They needed, you know, new condos and new cars and a second Ferrari and then holidays in the Bahamas. People had no sympathy. And a COVID package was half the size of this. This is literally 20% of the US economy hitting the market in just nine months. We've seen this before, just not at quite the scale. The 2017 tax cuts. What happened? What happened to the market? I tell you what happened. The SP rallied by 28% in the next 18 months. But that was only one and a half trillion. So for 1.5 trillion, you get 28% up. This is three times larger. The Bush tax cuts. That was when small caps particularly benefit from this. Small caps went up 47%. Real estate investment trusts, they went up 38%. If you go back a little further to 1981, the Reagan tax cuts, the tax cuts, all of the tax cuts are jealous of. Back then it was the Dow Jones Index. It went up a whopping 135% over the next five years. But here's the difference, the critical difference. In 2026, we have record low unemployment. We have a Fed that's already cutting rates. We have pent-up consumer demand. This isn't a recovery. It's rocket fuel of an already pretty hot economy. So why will most investors miss this? Most investors are conditioned to react, not anticipate. By the time CNBC is talking about the tax refund rally, the easy money is already made. The smart money is positioning now in early 2026 before the refund checks hit bank accounts. And if you're watching this later in the year, well, go back to the beginning and you'll see what's going to happen throughout the rest of the year. Maybe you want to participate in that potentially. Now, if you want to be prepared not just for this, but for every other opportunity and follow a systematic investing and trading strategy the way the guys on Wall Street do, then I've made a mini video for you. Teaches you the fundamentals of the strategies the big boys use. It's free. You can watch it at phoenixfranz.org slash get free. Click on the link down below. It's the first link in the description that you'll see. But let's get tactical here. This 4.7 trillion doesn't hit all at once. It flows in five distinct waves, and each wave creates different opportunities. You miss one, you leave money on the table. So let's break them down one after another. You might want to take notes, you might want to take screenshots so you get the most out of this. Wave 101. This is where we are right now. The bill is low, but the money hasn't moved yet. Smart institutional investors are looking to front run the refund season. So what are we looking at? We're looking at defensive sectors starting to weaken. What are defensive sectors? It's the utilities, it's the consumer staples. The growth stocks and the small caps begin to outperform, and the volatility, the VIX, the fear, it drops as uncertainty clears. The skies are blue, right? So where do we go right here? Now I'm not telling you what to buy, by the way, this isn't financial advice. I'm just giving you my thoughts, my research. You have to make your own decision or talk to your own financial advisor about it, or you know, a golden retriever who's well trained, that always helps. But we're looking at small caps. We're looking at consumer discretionary. I put some ETF tickers on here. We're looking at home builders. Because in the late 2016s, before the tax cut came in, small caps went up 15%. Large caps only did six. The Russell outperformed the SP by nine percentage points in just three months. So those are sectors that I'm I'm wave number two. This is the real refund flood. And I just told you, if you paid attention, it's gonna come earlier this year, right? And they're gonna start this late February, earliest ever in the history of all history. So this is the Bigley one. This is 1.2 trillion that hits consumer bank accounts. Now the average household is going to get a whopping$8,400. So where does the money go? Well, we've got consumer spending patterns. This is based on inland revenue data. I'll tell you where it goes. 35% goes to what do you think? Debt repayment. You guys are surprisingly responsible. Credit cards auto learns. 25%. So this here is debt, right? The next bit, that bit there is 25%. That's discretionary spending. Think vacations, you know, vacation, uh, home improvement, electronics, that sort of thing. And 20% is saving. And then the last 20% is just rent, utilities, groceries, that sort of thing. So what happens? Well, retail stocks love it.

SPEAKER_00: 8:21

Think Amazon, Walmart, Target, travel and leisure experts, airlines, hotels, cruise liners, brokerage firms love it.

SPEAKER_01: 8:28

Schmorb, Robin Hood, Fidelity, because more money goes into those brokerage announced credit card companies rally, even though they're getting hammered pretty hard by Trump, think Visa, MasterCard, Amex. And once it all settles down, we also realize that, well, they bought more stocks and they bought more stuff. So profits and revenue went up, earnings multiples went up, more money floated into the market. It's like, boom, right? The 2008 Bush stimulus checks caused a 12% spike in retail sales in a month that were just shibuted. You feel about this a lot? This is seven times bigger. Seven times bigger.

SPEAKER_00: 9:05

It is really big and beautiful.

SPEAKER_01: 9:07

Well, except for the debt disaster. But we won't talk about that because we're gonna enjoy, we're gonna enjoy this rally and we're not gonna let people with their longer-term kind of responsible vision spoil this for us, right? What's the third way? It's corporate repatriations. These are not dead bodies coming home. The tax bill includes a one-time repatriation holiday, not a holiday for dead bodies. It's corporations can bring overseas cash back to the United States, you know, wave the flag at a reduced tax rate. We're talking about 2.1 trillion held by US companies and foreign accounts. Why do they do that? They don't want to pay US tax on it. Talk to Apple and Netflix and Mice and all these guys, they're all holding money overseas in weird little places like Ireland. I love the Irish, actually, don't joke with the Irish. They're pretty serious people. So who benefits from this? The tech giants, the Apples, the Microbots, the Google. They hold more than half a trillion dollars overseas. Who else? The Lovies, the pharma companies who care about you and your children, the Frisers, the JJs, the Muggs, and the industrial conglomerates, the GEs, the Honeywells. So what do the companies do with this repatriated cash? I tell you what they're gonna do with it. Tell you what they're gonna do with it. Why this is good news for investors. 40% is gonna go into share buybacks, which basically reduces the number of shares out there, which means the remaining shares go up in price. 30%, and you're also gonna love this. I know everybody seems to love a dividend, goes to dividends. So that's good, right? 20% goes to MA, which is usually a waste of time, except, of course, for the investment bankers who arrange those deals. And uh, I mean, they do all need a bonus too, right? We love the investment bankers, don't we? And then 10% is just sort of investment. So literally only 10% of that goes to investment, uh, which is still a good thing. So tech stocks will probably rally pretty hard. The dividend aristocrats think you're Johnson Johnson, so on Coca-Cola, they should outperform. MNY begins, which means investment banks benefit, right? So the Hamptons will do well, then Tucket will do well. You know what I'm saying. So the last time we had a repatriation holiday was in 2004. How much was brought home? Home to Daddy? 312 billion in 2004. How much did the SP go up by that year? 15%. Tech stocks up 22%. This repatriation holiday is once again seven times biglier than the previous one, right? So mega cap tax, dividend-focused stocks is kind of what we're looking at here, right? Okay, I'm not telling you to buy it, I'm just saying this is the research, this is the conclusion that I've come to. You have to come to your own, right? What is the fourth wave? The fourth wave of this it's actually not really an attack, is it? It's an injection in the arm of the wealthy. There is a bonus depreciation for business equipment and infrastructure.

SPEAKER_00: 12:20

Isn't that exciting?

SPEAKER_01: 12:22

What does it mean? It means companies can write off the full cost of investments immediately. Now, not over years. It's a massive incentive to spend now. So who benefits? The people who invest a lot. Think Caterpillar, Deerco, 3M. What about the construction companies? Well, it's it's companies like Floor, F-L-U-O-R, it is Jacobs Engineering. These are all Palantir customers, aren't they? Interesting. Infrastructure guys, Cisco, Oracle, Salesforce, Energy and UTY Companies, solar, wind, grid modernization, all that stuff. So we're expecting it's 1.4 trillion in business capital expenditure. A lot of that, of course, will go into automation, it'll go into AI, it'll go into energy and bring supply chains back to the US, right? So if you want to look for an ETF on this, something like industrials, which is XLI, that's an ETF, you can have another look at. Materials, steel, copper, aluminium, and so on, should do quite well. The infrastructure stocks should do well. Again, you want a historical example? Well, look at 2017. Business investment grew 6% that year. Industrial stocks went up by how much? 34%. Not so shabby, right? Not so shabby. So what do we focus on here? Companies with strong order backlogs, commodities, copper. Dr. Copper seems to be making a comeback. And if we continue with this tight labor market, then guess what? It's gonna cause some inflation, which is good for what? Gold, yes, and silver, absolutely. So that theme's gonna continue, in my humble opinion, isn't it, Winston? Winston? Winston, what do you think about that financial advice? There is an uncomfortable truth to this, and I just hinted at it. 4.7 trillion flooding in the economy will cause inflation. Just like printing$4 trillion when the Fed did it during the COVID madness, right? And everybody lost their shirt and they thought that pharma companies are there to save you. I mean, really? You believed those guys anyway? The Fed's gonna respond. So this is where it gets a little tricky. But will the Fed respond? In a normal environment where you have an independent Fed staffed by a bunch of economists who always write, they would rank interest rates, right? But we're going to get rate cuts in 2026. Why? Because Trump wants them and he's going to appoint someone who's going to give them to him. But after the midterms, if inflation accelerates and inflation goes back up to 3%, what would then happen? You get interest rate hikes. Now, Trump is doing everything to make sure that doesn't happen. And you may have seen that. He's lowering oil prices. How? Invades Venezuela or makes it a colony. Liberates it. Sorry, you get the idea. Actually, my Venezuelan friends are very happy about it. So, you know, I hope it works out for you guys. He's lowering credit card rates, right? He's saying 10% no more. He's looking to lower the cost of housing. And he's thinking all of those things will make you think there is no inflation.

SPEAKER_00: 15:42

Nothing to see here, folks. And you're going to think that. You think gas has never been cheaper. I food's getting cheaper. Right, my crack bills are getting cheaper. Let's keep swiping the plastic.

SPEAKER_01: 15:52

But the real measure of inflation is not what you pay for your groceries or gas. It's the stock market. So if the stock market goes up, say 25%, to me, that's the 25% inflation. Why? Because your salary didn't go up 25%. But the people who have lots of money in stocks and real estate in gold and silver and other hard assets, they got 25% wealth here. So their money is now worth 25% more, which if you flip it around, means your money, your salary is worth 25% less. So what does that mean? Try to put as many dollars into assets. That's the only logical conclusion that I can come into. So while I'm putting this in here, this out and in, that's the scenario where we get rate hikes. And we might get those in 2027, right? When they're trying to combat the inflation again when it rears its ugly head because it did that before, right? And if you go back to 2021-2022, energy stocks, so this is may make a little note for late 2026. Um, we'd like to like to look forward. Energy stocks went up 65%. Tech stocks, by the way, went down 35%. Maybe you don't remember that. So you want to set some sort of risk management whereby you take profits on that highest high valuation growth stocks. Get a proper system in place, but takes you very, very little time. Um, go to feedexfense.org slash get free and watch that lesson over there. So, where do we position our money? Well, the obvious wave two winner to me is Amazon Home Depot. Uh, if you want to buy an ETF, here's one on the screen. Again, there's not financial advice, I'm just telling you like where I'd start doing my research. You have to do your decisions. Um, technology. Apple, there's massive buyback potential. They got loads of money they can bring home, Microsoft, um, QQQ. That would also do the trick, right? QQQ would do the trick. I'm still very bullish on Nvidia. I'm very bullish on Alphabet, ad revenue is gonna recover, AI is gonna make loads of money for them. So we're looking at some serious returns here for the year. And then we have financials, MA activity, investment banking. This picks up. So JP Morgan is an obvious one. Uh there they are, the ruler of the world. Um, our Lord and Master, thank you very much for blessing us on this glorious day. Uh, we've got Goldman Sachs. Um, I think companies like Visa are gonna grind through, despite what Trump's putting out there. Schwarp, Charles the Schwarp, Robin Hood, those retail investment stocks, all right, they're gonna potentially do well. I give you an ETF here again, XLF, if you just want to cover the whole financial sector. I'm bullish on those. Not quite as bullish as on the previous ones, but still. And then as we move towards the end of the year, or as Venezuela becomes more clear, your exons and your chevrons should do well. But that's a longer-term pick, right? They're oil majors, they're gonna benefit Conoco Phillips as well, um, next-era energy, those guys, right? I'm bullish on those, but almost later in the year, because we need to understand what this whole Venezuela mess is all about, right? Who's gonna pay for what? How much are they gonna invest? How much are they gonna be allowed to keep in that kind of thing? And then you get another sector, sector six. Why does this work? Real estate. Tax refunds are basically down payments. We're gonna get super low interest rates next year. It means housing demand goes through the roof. So REITs benefit. Now, industrial warehouses are already doing very well. Residential ones, let me give you another ticker here. EQR, don't go out and blindly buy those and blame me for it. Do you bleeding research, right? Uh, there are other stocks. SPG, real estate stock. Uh VNQ is an ETF option, right? So we're looking at those winners materializing as interest rates come down. There's another one, actually, as interest rates come down, which is which is SOFI. Because student loans are going to get refinanced, and they're the number one student loan refinancing company out there. So what's the timeline here? Well, if you want to front run this, of course that's where the highest risk sits, obviously, right? You can look at small cap stocks, you know, IWM, VB, that kind of thing. You can get more bullish on discretionary stocks. XLY is a ticker. You can reduce bond exposure. Like that's kind of a no-brainer. Uh, generally speaking, again, my just my humble opinion. And retail stocks is something I think I think to look at. There's another ETF for retail stocks, XRT, travel and leisure, airlines, hotels, right? And then as we go into more the middle of the year, we're probably still gonna hold on to our consumer discretionary positions. We're gonna look at this inflation data very closely. And it might be nonsense at that point, so it might not mean much. And then as we go through the summer, the corporate repatriation should do very, very well. So I'm looking at QQQ, that's an easy one. Uh, maybe some of the dividend ones, VYM or SCHD, right? That's another one also. Uh another ETF, again, not specific recommending specific things. I'm not your financial advisor. I'm just doing my research and I'm sharing it with you. You've got to come to your own conclusion. Get yourself a proper advisor, get yourself some proper education. And then for the third quarter, we're gonna look at the capital expenditure boom and all that free money you're getting if you're investing in the US. So you can write it off immediately. So we're looking at industrials here, XLI, materials and commodities. I think will front run this. I'm very bullish on gold and silver still. It'll get choppier, especially silver, but I'm very bullish on that. And then what we want to do towards the end of the year is watch out for the inflation buck. So, what are inflation hedges? Gold, tips, bitcoin, energy stocks. And we might want to remove some of our tech profits on some of our high growth and high tech names. That's kind of how I'm seeing the year play out. And it is all thanks to the master, the computer, the master in chief, if you know what I mean, Donald the Trump. Now, could something go wrong? Yeah, sure. The Fed, you know, you might appoint a Fed chair and he turns around and he does his own thing. We've seen that with the present Fed chair. He was appointed by Donald Trump.

SPEAKER_00: 22:31

He's a card-carrying Republican. Now they're prosecuting the poor chap, right? Just I mean, what did you do? He only printed$4 trillion. It was so much fun printing. He couldn't stop himself. I mean, who could, right? If you could print money, wouldn't you? I would.

SPEAKER_01: 22:43

I think it's just human anyway. Um, that's possible. Consumers could just go, we're not gonna spend any of the money we're gonna save. We're scared about the future. We're scared about the future. Why? AI is gonna make us all unemployed. You know, that sort of thing. Possible. But if they save it, you know, money's just gonna flow slightly different places. Your warm-outs, your targets are gonna do not as well. The money is still gonna flow into what? Into your Robin Hoods and into your Schwabs and into your brokerage accounts. It's still gonna pop up the market. And what do consumers buy? They tend to buy stocks they've heard of. The popular names, the Microsofts, the Amazons, the Teslas, the SoFis, the Robin Hoods, the stocks they've heard of, they buy those. It's just human nature. And you could also say this is already priced in and nothing is gonna happen. Yeah, I don't really buy it because when I talk to people outside of the really well-informed Wall Street lot, they look at me and they go, What? This is happening, really? So you're now better informed than 99% of people out there. And if you think more people should be informed of this, well, first of all, share this video with more people. That would help us tremendously, wouldn't it, Winston? He doesn't look too concerned, does he, about spreading the news. He's like, I've done my bit. I've chewed the research papers, I slept and drooled on them. But seriously, if you are more serious about managing your money differently in 2026, by having skills, having a system, having a structure, having a pattern, following the patterns, because it's bleeding obvious, I think, once you understand it. Watch the little masterclass I made for you at Felix Rensselorgslash get free. And learn and get better. How do we make most of our money?

SPEAKER_00: 24:24

Risk management. I know it sounds deathly dull, but that's how we actually get to keep our profits. So if you want to do that, Felix Rensselorgslash get free, and I wish you a glorious, amazing 2026. I mean, you're gonna have one, and I hope you're not gonna sit on the sidelines and miss it all, because that would be a shame, wouldn't it? All the best.