Speaker 1: 0:00

Wall Street is warning their big customers once again, while they're not telling us the same story. So I'm going to share with you a full Goldman Sachs note they sent to their institutional clients. So you're as well informed as Winston back there and Sabrina over there on that nice leather chair. So I'm literally going to share my screen with you. I'm going to walk you through what we need to be concerned about. I think we can position ourselves better. Going to walk you through what we need to be concerned about I think we can position ourselves better, the actual opportunities we might want to be grabbing by the horns, and a few thoughts on Nvidia and where that's moving today. So stick around, if you're going to get some value out of this. You know what to do. Abuse the like button to your heart's content. Here's the actual note from Goldman Sachs. It's only two pages. So they send this stuff out every day to their clients.

Speaker 1: 0:47

This is one of their top traders, rich Przeworowski, so let me walk you through it. So he's basically saying look, it feels like a late summer chop as in. He worries the market is about to go down pretty harshly, and he explains why. I'm going to get a highlight up so you can see what I'm looking at. He says, look, pmi manufacturing data was good, the Fed managed to not disappoint and he thinks the market is right to think the Fed is being more soft because we have a weakening labor market now and talks quickly about the Lisa Cook firing. He doesn't think that that's like that bigger deal, to be quite honest, and I think he's probably right on that one. But what he then goes into is what really matters.

Speaker 1: 1:34

The AI trade has paused in the near term. There was an MIT paper which was arguing that most AI projects are not bringing in any positive returns. Meta put in a hiring freeze Doesn't really matter, honestly, but still it grabs headlines. And then ChatGPT5 was, well, more of a sizzle than a steak. Yeah, not really a lot in that. And then Altman, sam Altman, the OpenAI chap. He basically said, look, we might be in a bubble or close to it. Apple put out a paper saying that LLMs which is what chat, gpt and these things are they don't actually think, which isn't particularly positive. And then, well, we've got NVIDIA tomorrow. So he's saying caution is warranted, because the only visibility you have is from Microsoft and Amazon and Facebook and so on spending money on AI chips. If they scale that back because we figure out that the real secret to AI isn't actually bigger computers, but maybe just smarter, more efficient models, or maybe quantum computing or something, then all that expenditure is going to go away. So that's a risk. So you're saying the risk? We've built too much capacity and we may need a reset before the next innovation wave comes in.

Speaker 1: 2:59

That's an odd looking green, isn't it? I hope you can see that Russia, ukraine basically saying that nothing really happens talks about France a little bit. The French stock market is about half the size of Nvidia. So if you read headlines about France's government falling apart in the next few days, just go and do something else. Nobody cares. I'm sorry to say, my French friends I don't actually have any French friends, do I? No, probably not. But yeah, you're irrelevant, right, french stock market is irrelevant, so wouldn't give it any attention. But what does matter and I harp on about this quite a lot is cta. So cta is our algo funds, and what he's saying is seasonality gets ugly into september, and I've got a chart for you on that.

Speaker 1: 3:41

This is the seasonality chart of the market, and can you see one month that sticks out like a sore, infected thumb. September it's the only one with all that red. It is historically not red a good month, it's a bad month. Everyone's still sort of on holiday, starting to come back from it, making some adjustments, and it's just before we go off into October, november, december, which are traditionally wonderful months. Now I think we can take advantage of September. We do get that pullback and dip which everybody's predicting which is also one of the reasons it happens, by the way and position ourselves in some really, really glorious stocks, and I'm going to walk you through some opportunities here in a second. But if you want to be able to do this on your own, I highly suggest that you do, because I may or may not put on a video and I may or may not lose my marbles. Much better if you understand it. Then join me on Saturday at FelixFriendsorg training and I'll show you how we actually invest when we are at the top of the market and how we keep our profits.

Speaker 1: 4:44

And I appreciate it's Labor Day weekend and some of you are like oh, I'm traveling, felix, it's time off and all that. Well, the reason you celebrate a three-day off event is because you're not free the rest of the year right. So the goal is to be free 365 days of the year, not just get one extra day. And then you'd be a little bit less excited about Labor Day, although obviously you go and enjoy it. So what do we need to do for that? Well, yeah, we need to put in a couple of extra hours to learn in our free time so that we can come out and enjoy our real time.

Speaker 1: 5:17

Like I used to have a full-time job. I worked all day long and then in the evenings I'd study, at lunchtime I'd study, and then I got my businesses working insanely hard and I was still studying. I was still learning to get better at the whole money thing. Because I realized and I was lucky, I had mentors who clicked it into my head that the freedom doesn't come from the salary. Very, very rarely does it come from the business. It comes from what you do with that salary. It just comes from what you do with that income. That's the real business.

Speaker 1: 5:47

So 99% of people are focusing on the wrong thing. They're focusing on how can I get a better job? How can I apply for this? Should I ask for a raise? They think hours and hours and days and weeks and months on that, but they spend almost no money at all figuring out their time at all, and actually no money at all figuring out how to manage their money in a way that it provides them with an income that'll replace their salary. So if you want that, I'm not promising it to you, but if you want that, come and learn. It's free. Felix runs a Logstash training on Saturday.

Speaker 1: 6:17

So there we go. This is the wisdom from Goldman and Sachs, sachs and Goldman. I wonder what Goldman did to be bigger than Sachs. Maybe he was just bigger. All right, let's look at some interesting things then. Here we go. Gold. Why is gold interesting? This chart, of course, is trade vision. Get yourself a free trial to that. It's not a plug. It's a software that we built because it's tremendous and it gives you all the data points. Is doing what gold is going in our textbook heartbeat pattern? It's doing very little. It's done very little since april. We like things that have done very little at that sort of level and we I am bullish on gold.

Speaker 1: 6:58

Yesterday was a pretty good day for the whole gold miner sector. Why watch my? Watch my next video. I'll explain it. I'll break it down for you. I'll even give you the gold stocks that I'm looking at and many others. So I like this setup, but I'm not buying gold, and I'll tell you why. Because gold's actually not had that great of a year. The gold goons out there are going to be like oh my god, felix Sakralich. But yeah, we're up 28% on gold.

Speaker 1: 7:25

Well, what if you were actually in a gold mining stock, like this one, btg, for example? I just bought a little bit of that. Where did the January go? Here's January. So this thing, where was January? Beginning of the year was here. This thing's up 62%. Would you rather be up 20-something percent or 60%? It's more than double, right? So is that worth the extra little bit of time to figure that one out? I bought this one two or three days ago. It doesn't mean you should, why? Well, come and join me Saturday. I'll really break it down for you. But again, it's about the consolidation up here. It's about that pattern. It's about breaking out of it. All we need now is a little bit of volume, and Bob will be your uncle. If your uncle is Bob, put that in the comment down below. That would be funny.

Speaker 1: 8:10

The second thing that I'm liking right now and there's a couple of other things as well, and I keep talking about stuff like that. But silver, silver also is doing its best to go sideways. It's consolidating and if you watch my next video, you'll understand my excitement about silver, because something bigly is happening with silver. The bigly one in the White House is going to do something about silver. But again, I'm not buying silver and I haven't done these numbers before. Let's see if this backs up my thesis.

Speaker 1: 8:39

Silver's up 33%. Here's a silver stock that I happen to own. It doesn't mean you should. That is up. Where's January? Can you hear that cat that I've got, so noisy, noisiest cat I've ever had? Yeah, that's up 80%. Right, 30% versus 80%. So all the uninformed lot who understand at least that what a pattern in the sector is of buying gold, they're up 33%. The people who are actually informed well, they're up 80%. Just asking you like which one you would rather have. Rather have the extra 50%, yes or no? So that's what it's all about. So, yeah, I like Max Silver, for example.

Speaker 1: 9:18

There's a bunch of other silver stocks as well, and I'll mention quite a few of them in the next video that's coming out. So make sure you are subscribed. Seriously, that cat's like a. It's like one of those town criers. Now, nvda what's happening with NVDA? Well, they're reporting earnings, according to Trade Vision, at 4.20 Eastern time, and we're expecting a dollar and a bit in earnings per share. Now I'd expect them to beat quite mightily, but the question is, how mightily? And is the market impressed by mightily? Well, what does the market think is going to happen? You're like, oh, I don't know. How would I know that? Well, let me show you. Can you see this blue box here that I'm extending that one and I'm doing it again from here? Whoops, that one that, my friends, is what options traders call, and everyone's running for the door.

Speaker 1: 10:13

Now he's going to talk about options. No, make him stop. Don't worry, I won't talk about options. I'm just going to give you a little bit of insight here. There is something called the expected move. Expected move, and what that means is that the stocks either going to go up or going to go down by the end of this week by this amount according to the options market.

Speaker 1: 10:38

And and that is, can we measure that properly? It's about 8% up, about 7% down, slight skew to the top, but let's just call it plus minus 8% to make our life easier. That's what the market's saying. It's not helpful. Yeah, it's helpful. It's insanely helpful actually. It doesn't have to be right, by the way, but it's helpful. It's insanely helpful actually. It doesn't have to be right, by the way, but it's helpful. It's a data point, and that means the worst case scenario is that we'd be back to where we were in July, according to the market. So the market is pretty. Now it's jumping around. Now the market is pretty confident that this isn't a complete freaking disaster. So I don't think it will be, but it could be sort of not a lot.

Speaker 1: 11:20

Now, the last earnings remember those? That was the earnings here. And what did the stock do? Didn't really do anything. Jumped up a bit, went down again, did absolutely nothing actually, over the first three days, but it kicked off another rally, which is another 36% out in a quarter. Just like that's pretty good, right, that's pretty good stuff.

Speaker 1: 11:44

A quarter only has 90 days. That's like zero point. Well, it means there are probably about 60 trading days. How many trading days were there? It actually tells us, doesn't it? This was earnings, this was earnings 62 trading days. So you went up half a percent every single day's pretty, that's pretty spectacular. Of course it doesn't go like that. It does exact like nothing, goes up in a straight line. But so, no, I don't think it's the end of the ai rally.

Speaker 1: 12:07

But yes, I do think that the uh chap from goldman sachs does have a point that there is a risk here that we've all gone all in on this technology and thinking well, we just need more chips, faster chips, that's how we win. And I'm not sure that's true. And one of the reasons I don't think that's necessarily true is that if you look at, say, grok, built by Elon Musk's X, they've done in a very, very short time period, build something that's pretty much as good as what OpenAI has done, with a lot more money and a lot more compute power. Now they're also trying to get as much compute power as possible, but it is possible that someone's going to come out and go. We've made an LLM, so like a chat GPT competitor that needs a tenth of the compute power. Now that's the one that's going to win. So it isn't necessarily who's got bigger computers, but it's more about what you do with them. That's what people always say, isn't it? Size doesn't matter. Well, let's not get into that subject Now.

Speaker 1: 13:06

So a little cautious seasonally. I think it's important to be cautious, be selective. We're nibbling on high-quality stocks in sectors that the money is flowing into, and I continue to do that. And if we get a little pullback into September, I'm going to be thrown a party and I'm going to buy the good stuff at a discount. It's as simple as that. And then I look forward to the last end of the year, because what are we getting? We're getting rate cuts, we're getting tax cuts, we're getting less regulation, we're getting a US government that's militantly trying to push the economy up. So it's kind of hard to see how the market isn't going to continue to do well, but we might have a little pullback.

Speaker 1: 13:49

And if last Wednesday, thursday, anything to judge by a lot of people well, they just lose their freaking cool when the stock goes down just a couple of percent, you know like. Let me show you once again. So, literally last week, from Tuesday to Thursday, we went down 4% on Nvidia, on the Nasdaq, from all-time highs, we went down like 3%. Now, if you look at the venom in my comment section on Wednesday and Thursday, it was like the market completely collapsed and it was all over. So if that was your feeling last Wednesday, thursday.

Speaker 1: 14:27

You know what that means. It means you've got no risk management. You haven't really got a strategy. You're just hoping and praying that hope and the wind will keep blowing you in the right direction, and I hope that it will for you. But at some point the music's going to stop and that's when you make the real money, because you actually have a strategy, you actually have a rule book and you actually know what you're doing. So if you want to learn that, come and join me Saturday, felixfriendsorg. Slash training and no more whinging about it being a Labor Day weekend. It's brilliant. You should say oh my God, it's amazing, felix, you're doing it on the Labor Day weekend. It means I've got all weekend to study this. That would be the right response. All right,