Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix and Winston here, and the alarm bells are sounding a little louder today and I want to walk you through that. I want to give you the actual data points what to look for that indicates whether this bubble is about to burst or whether the party is going to keep going, not a doom and gloom video. In fact, I'm going to round this off with actually two sectors and stocks that I actually like right now, but there is some concern here, and the concern stems from this. Sam Altman yes, that lovely chap CEO of OpenAI. He said he believes AI could be in a bubble. Comparing market conditions to those of the dot-com boom, I'll be in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI. Yes, right, andre Dalio and Joe Tsai and many others are resounding the same alarm bell. So important to understand some key data points here. I'm going to write those down because it'll make you into a better investor, it'll give you better risk management and the whole thing, the whole party right now, the whole rally, hinges on this.

Speaker 1: 1:10

Now, what is this? This is let me need a slightly thinner pen. This is M2. This is money, and there is a kitten on my keyboard, which is rarely a good idea. So as they print more money, the rally gets sustained. But remember this as we go a few points deeper. The NASDAQ market cap is now at 145% of M2, which is money. So it is higher than all of the. Just the NASDAQ itself is higher than all of the money out there. 145% higher Now, at the dot-com bubble we were at this level, right, but 130%. So we're higher than the dot-com bubble in terms of what the NASDAQ is worth. That alone shouldn't frighten you, but it should make you think about, well, what if this whole thing comes down?

Speaker 1: 2:11

So one of the number one questions you guys have been asking me in the chats for literally years is can you guys have a look at my portfolio? What do you think about this stock? What do you think about that? Do you think I'm too heavily in this? Should I be in this kind of stuff? About this stock? What do you think about that? Do you think I'm too heavily in this? Should I be in this kind of stuff?

Speaker 1: 2:26

And we're going to do a little experiment here today. I'm going to allow you to book a free portfolio review call with my team, completely free. You click on this link felixfriendsorg slash review. It's the first link in the description. And, yeah, you need to fill in your name and you need to tell us a little bit about your portfolio, otherwise we can't do much reviews, and that will then allow you to book a call completely for free and we'll walk through your setups and your risks and give you some pointers on what you might be missing out, on what you might be too heavily in with your risk management and strategy and so on, and see if that's something we could help you with. So if you want to do that, I said we were going to do 50 spots because we've never done this before. That's probably right. Let's see what the demand is for it, how quickly they go. But yeah, you probably don't want to hang around for too long and think about it because I suspect they'll probably go.

Speaker 1: 3:20

Felixrentorg slash review. This is a first, so come and join us over there. Now a few other data points and you might want to write these down if you're finding these useful. By the way, do you think that portfolio review thing? Do you think that'll be useful for you? Let me know in the chat down below. Just put portfolio review in the comments of the chat and I'll see it.

Speaker 1: 3:37

Nvidia and Microsoft together are now 15% of the S&P, are now 15% of the S&P. Now, again, in the 2000, the two top stocks were 9% of the S&P. Microsoft was one of those, by the way. Microsoft has been an extraordinary business, so we're 50% higher in terms of concentration than we were in 2000. Again, something to think about. And what we didn't have back then was for retail investors like you and me to be able to leverage our investments, and I don't recommend it. I think it's always a bad idea, but people are. We now have $60 billion in Nasdaq leveraged ETFs, so these are Nasdaq times two or Nasdaq times three.

Speaker 1: 4:31

Now, beautiful when it goes up, but you know what happens when it goes down. Right, it also falls two or three or four times faster. So which means that if we do go down all of these guys, you know they're underwater very, very quickly, which means things go down much, much faster. And then the other thing to look at where we are right now August 2025, the seasonality of the market. This shows you volatility. This shows you VIX. Vix is fear, basically, and fear tends to pick up from August into September and into October, and then we usually have a beautiful end to the year. It's usually what happens. So, where we are right now, somewhere here, well, the likelihood that fear is going to pick up and the market's going to go a little bit wobbly is a reasonable one, right? So something you can think about.

Speaker 1: 5:26

Now, what about this whole thing? But there's all this money on the sidelines $7 trillion, and all of this, right? People put this stuff on social media. Well, if you actually look at the available cash out there from the fund managers and you compare that against how much money there is out there again, m2, money supply we're looking at a lot of money supply here. Well, guess what? We're at the same extreme levels we were at during the dot-com bubble the very, very top of it.

Speaker 1: 5:54

Again, I'm not saying this party is going to stop tomorrow. Ai is actually useful. The AI companies are actually mostly making money. The big software companies are making money. Nvidia is making money. Google, amazon, microsoft and so on are making money money. Google, amazon, microsoft and so on are making money, but they're also spending an extraordinary amount on something that may all come out to be the same. What am I saying? I'm saying all these ai offerings out there, whether it's chat, gpt or claude, which is anthropic or gemini or you know any of these other ones. They basically all do the same thing grok and so on. So the question is and the cat's kicked my camera? There we are, we're back. So the question is is a lot of that money just wasted, you know? Is it actually going to give shareholders a return? So that's something to think about.

Speaker 1: 6:47

Now, as I walk you through two sectors that I actually like, make sure you book the portfolio review call, because the spots will run out and I don't want lots of tears in the chat. There are two sectors right now that I like home builders. I know it's like the latest in AI. Right, timber with AI in it. No, but why? Because it's been a laggard. It hasn't done anything this year from the beginning of the year, which is well. It's started actually down here in January, but if you look at what we were in November, december, we're actually still down, which you can't say about AI stocks. So it's a bit of a lag out, it's a bit of a late play, and this will benefit tremendously from what? Low interest rates, exactly, and also just the fear around tariffs receding.

Speaker 1: 7:35

The second sector that I like is XBI, and these are just ETFs. This is biotech. Now, biotech is a bit of a loony bin basket, you would think, but again, it's done very, very little. So since, literally, we were at what we were in 2023, we're exactly where we were in 2022. We haven't done anything in this sector in like three years. And I like that. Why do I like that? Because it just means valuations are not as stretched as they once were. We have a nice little consolidation pattern here, and you see this sort of thing here, right, and we're kind of looking to break out of that. So I like it and I think there's some great opportunities in there.

Speaker 1: 8:23

I'm not telling you what to buy, but here's one, for example, that popped onto my watch list this week ABBV. Why? Well, once again it's done what it's sort of consolidated sideways, right, consolidated sideways, and now it's popping out of that consolidation zone. We're not seeing much volume down here, which is a shame. Let me move the chat a little bit to the left so you can see that. But that volume, if it comes, be institutional and it means then the thing is going to really, really take off. So there's a lot of opportunity there, but not necessarily in the stocks that everybody's talking about, because everyone's talking about the same horse that we're talking about last year and the year before and so on.

Speaker 1: 9:03

So I think, moving around being a little bit smarter about exposure to the right sectors in this moment where AI has run a lot of its story and I'm not saying it's over, but it's just like the risk reward isn't quite where you want it to be I'm buying things that people are not looking at. I mean, I bought some Johnson Johnson last week, for example, which looks like a very, very beautiful chart, if you ask me and again, this is not what people think is exciting or sexy or anything like that there's no AI in it. But you see, that's not what it's about. It's about managing your risk. It's about bringing in money and returns for you and your family and your retirement and your safety. It's not about are you in the most exciting stock in the world? So that's all I'd say to you.

Speaker 1: 9:49

So have a chat with us, see if we can help you with um, reviewing your portfolio and so on, and if you want just one one thing to watch out for, it's just the VIX, and at the moment, vix is sleeping at 15, which means everything is wonderful, everything is okay. But what you might want to do is just, in Trade Vision here, set yourself an alert. Say, vix goes over 20, right, set a little alert there If it moves above, above 20, you're not going to get an alert. Download the trade vision app on your phone and there's there's links to it in in the uh apple store and also in android. Um, we have ipad versions, everything is it's all out and you will get the notification and you'll be like oh, now I know what's coming.

Speaker 1: 10:41

I know things are going to get dicey, about to get dicey, and that is a little early warning signal there for you. If you got some value out of this, share it with a friend. I look forward to hearing about all your portfolio reviews and I wish you a beautiful rest of the week and see if there are any final words from Winston. I know he got moved on by the naughty kittens. Where did they all go? Actually, there are quite a few of them back there. Can you see that there's a whole gang sleeping back there who bully Winston mercilessly? They're actually quite sweet, but they do like to chew his tail, which he doesn't really appreciate. Thanks for tuning in.