Speaker 1: 0:00

Winston and Felix here pre-market Monday morning. Now I want to be frank with you. As you're watching this, I'm on a plane, so I recorded this a little bit before the market was about to open. I do, however, have exceptional analytical support from some of these guys here. This is Rose, who is just the sweetest little thing in the world. If you ask me, I want to walk you through the fear of the FOMO and the opportunity.

Speaker 1: 0:25

Trump announced massive new tariffs on Europe and Mexico, and I want to tell you why. I continue to be insanely bullish, with a great big grin on my face, so I'll share my screen with you here. The US has informed Europe and Mexico that tariffs will kick in on the 1st of August, but they're telling them in advance. This sounds like a negotiation tactic. This sounds like Trump doing Trump. He's just saying look, you've got a couple of days left to come to an agreement with us, otherwise this is going to bite. Mexico is saying they are negotiating and the Europeans are sort of being a little bit defensive about the whole thing, but they obviously knew this was coming anyway.

Speaker 1: 1:10

Bitcoin has not budged at all. In fact, it's at insane highly high levels, so we're not going to get the same market shock that we got in April. It just isn't going to happen. And this little monster here is chewing my microphone setup, which is probably not a good idea, is it? So I wouldn't worry about it, and if there's a little dip on it, I would enjoy it. That's my perspective on this, and there's a reason. Markets are simply not bothered. It's because of this. Well, there is the taco hopes. You know that Trump tends to fold again, but it's mostly money supply. So I have to lift my glasses here to show you the numbers. The white line is the global money supply. Let's see if I can get a pen here. Can we write on this? That white line? There is basically money, and what you can see is that central banks peaked sort of here after COVID and they've gone on a total money spending printing spree, and the stock market tends to follow that right. That's, ultimately, what this is all about.

Speaker 1: 2:30

And if you're worried about the crypto bubble, some people are worried about the crypto. Well, who's worried about the crypto bubble? Put a, put a b for bubble in the chat and um, well, you've got bitcoin in blue and money supply in light blue. The idiocy of investment bankers. You only know two colors. Maybe they're just so high they don't know what they're looking at. Obviously not the glorious investment bankers from Deutsche. No, no, that would never happen there. Amazing outfit.

Speaker 1: 3:03

I had a friend who worked there. Actually, he just got promoted. I saw he's at Morgan Stanley now. So what do you see? You see M2, which is again money front-running this very, very significantly. Well, expected to be front-running this as a prediction. But we have a pretty good idea which way the market's going to go. We're going to get lower interest rates. We're going be like.

Speaker 1: 3:25

Well, what does all the money printing create? Well, it creates two outcomes one really good, one really bad. The bad one is inflation, which means your salary is going to go less and less far, and the good outcome is that it drives stock prices up. So the question, therefore, is how much money have you got in stocks and how much in your salary? So people who live paycheck to paycheck, they're screwed. Yeah, what they got to do is they're going to take some of that salary and they're going to start owning some assets like stocks, because those are actually going to outperform inflation. Very little else will.

Speaker 1: 4:12

And maybe you're confused. Maybe, like I I don't know investing is risky. Well, there is one thing that's guaranteed your salary will be worth less and less and less and less. So taking zero action is actually the riskiest thing you could possibly take. And look at what rich clients are doing of bank of america. They have a near record high exposure to equity holdings fancy word for stocks. So the wealthy are putting 64% of their money into stocks. Well, you know, you could put it under the mattress, but the people who will actually have a beautiful life, who retire easily and all that stuff, they will own stocks lots and lots and lots of it. So I'm not worried about any kind of dip in any of that.

Speaker 1: 5:05

And JP Morgan just also came out and they said the market's going to go up 5% to 10% to the end of the year. Why? Because of $500 billion of stock buying led by retail investors you and me. So they're up expecting us to pour more money into this. It's quite possible, but they're not going to pour it into everything equally. And I think that's kind of the mistake I see probably most people make. They just go well, here is the stock market, right, that's the stock market, and hang on. I'll show you a slightly more scientific version of that. So if you go into Trade Vision we just released Trade Vision analysis, by the way, for all the major stocks which tells you, it gives you a live analysis of what's actually going on, gives you references to where this is coming from and everything else going on, gives you references to where this is coming from and everything else. So really really, really nice snapshot of what's really going on with the stock. I'm absolutely loving that.

Speaker 1: 6:03

But if you go in here and you click on a heat map and say you look at the S&P, say you look at the S&P, well, you've got all these sectors right. You've got finance technology, electronic technology what sort of technology is an electronic? You know, cars, machines, food, restaurants and so on, and they're not all moving at the same time in the same direction. There are sectors here that we love. There are sectors here that we hate. We were quite bullish on restaurants, for example. We've been quite bullish on finance. We've been bullish on semiconductors, but not so much on some of the other stocks out here, and that's just because they don't all move together.

Speaker 1: 6:50

So once you understand the patterns of the market, not just the sectors but also every single stock, you will be able to actually make much smarter decisions. And it sounds complicated but honestly it isn't. It really is very, very, very simple. If you want to learn that, well, maybe get yourself some good data. Trade Vision does that for you. But, much more importantly, there's a link down below to that. There's a free trial to that as well. But, much more importantly, actually go and sit down and learn. Learn the bloody rules that I always bang on about, because that's the only thing that actually makes us potentially more consistent, potentially more profitable, makes us sleep better at night.

Speaker 1: 7:28

And it's Monday morning. I'm about to. You know, I'm on a plane as you're watching this. I'm not worried about the market. I'm going to do nothing all week in terms of investing, and I do that every week, not just when I'm traveling. And it's because we have a system. So we have risk management already baked in, we know when we want to buy stocks, at what price, and we've got all of that set up because we set that up on Sundays. So if you have a structure that you can actually rely on, that you can explain to somebody, because it's that simple, then this whole thing this overwhelmingness of FOMO and noise and news and tariffs and earnings and all that sort of stuff. It no longer really matters. It just no longer really matters. It just becomes noise.

Speaker 1: 8:16

And speaking of earnings, we have a couple of big ones coming up. So which ones to watch out for? First week of earnings is always about the banks. Why? Nothing more important than banks if you talk to Wall Street. So we get Citi, we get BlackRock, we get Wells Fargo, you know BNY, a few others, and that's important because it tells us something about the economy and which way things are heading. On Wednesday, we get Goldman Sachs, we got Bank of America, asml that's obviously important. United gives us an insight into consumer behavior as well. And then Thursday, tsmc, again chips, netflix very early this year, pepsi might also be an interesting one and then a load more banks. And then Friday, 3m, which we were watching last week, amex, swarps and so on. So it's an early kind of start to the earnings season, which is, in many ways, what matters in the short term is the noise from earnings.

Speaker 1: 9:16

So make sure your risk management is right If you're in any of these stocks. If you're not, there'll be some nice opportunities and we'll be watching out for those. We're in some of these already, and if you're really really risk averse JP Morgan, by the way, also Tuesday morning if you're really really risk averse, you might want to avoid earnings, but once your portfolio management is set up in a better way, then you can actually be in earnings and it can be a very good thing. Occasionally goes against you, but again, if you have an overall risk management strategy, then that is no longer really a problem and I I delve on into that a little bit also in the free master class which is down below at felixfrenzorg get free which you're very welcome to watch, but it gets. The whole portfolio risk management thing is probably something that's best done with somebody on a, you know, one-on-one call kind of type thing with an actual, with an actual coach.

Speaker 1: 10:07

Uh, so I am confident that the latest tariff spats, in whatever form they come, the market market will overcome it. I'm confident rates will go down. I'm confident money will keep getting printed and you have an insanely bullish administration in the US that's going to do whatever it takes to keep the market happy. Because look at where they all came from Wall Street, most of them, and where they're going to crawl back. Or Silicon Valley same sort of thing, where they're all going to crawl back afterwards. Well, same sort of places. They're going to get richer and richer as they leave, and they're not going to screw it up for themselves, and that's perhaps a political view. That's all right.

Speaker 1: 10:45

You might not agree with that, that's also okay. We can still be friends. But I am very, very happy with where the market's heading. I'm very confident we're going to have one of the best years yet because the styles are aligning, but it'll be very few stocks that'll make us all the money, and most of the stocks will not make any money at all. So you might want to think about learning which stocks are actually the good ones, and once you know that and it's far, far simpler than loons and what's with how you believe you'll be able to see clearly, because the rain is gone. I thank you for watching. I thank you for tuning in. I hope to be live tomorrow, um, probably, and otherwise I'll catch you guys later in the week. All the best.