Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix and Rose here, and by now, everybody, including my kitten, knows that the US just struck Iran last night and I want to walk you through not what happened there, none of that. This is not war talk. This is purely what's going to happen next. What should you be watching before the market actually opens? And that's also the reason I'm doing this Sunday live stream, which I never do, because so many of you are messaging me and you're asking what Rose thinks of this thing. Right, look at this little monkey. And, in all seriousness, we're going to also show you which sectors and which stocks we'll actually be buying, depending on how this plays out over the next 12 to 24 hours. So my goal here is to give you a head start for everybody else who's just starting their week, and that's because Rose here does some amazing research on a Sunday. So let me share my screen with you and we'll walk you through what's actually going on here. Well, I might put this one back with the other ones, but where do I share my screen? Here is the button. There we go. So this is the message from Trump after they struck those nuclear facilities in Iran and I said I'm not going to go into the military stuff with you. That's not what this is about. This is purely about making money. Right, if you want to watch the news and the noise, go and watch Fox or something. But he's basically saying, if Iran retaliates against the US, bad things will happen and the war will get much, much, much, much bigger. That's a concern. We need to bear that in mind for what's going to happen here in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Speaker 1: 1:27

Right Now, let me show you two maps, just so you understand this, because this is not a part of the world that we're typically massively familiar with. Right, this is a map of oil fields or gas fields those sort of brown blobs map of oil fields or gas fields those sort of brown blobs, and then also in red refineries and what you can probably see and I think most of us certainly I had never really quite realized just how large Iran is and that Iran basically borders of the Persian Gulf. That is 30% of global oil production. Right, also massive gas production. It comes out of Kuwait, it comes out of Bahrain that's mostly gas Qatar and so on, and you know Iraq and obviously Saudi, massive oil producer, and all of that has got to go through that little bit here, where Iran is literally right there. So that's the challenge with the whole thing is that if they say mine that spot or they launch drones at oil tankers or something like that, what happens? Well, you remove 30% of the global oil supply and therefore oil prices go up significantly. We'll talk about that in a moment.

Speaker 1: 2:48

You look like the banker from the Wolf of Wall Street. I appreciate that. I take that as a compliment. By the way, that's what happens when you used to work in banking. Greed is good.

Speaker 1: 2:57

So the second part is where US military assets, us troops, are based, and you can see they're basically based wherever there is oil and gas, right. It's a complete coincidence, of course. This kitten on my desk is just so cute she's exploring the desk. So, again, this here is Iran. I'm going to use a red line to make it as it's the enemy, right. So this is all Iran here, and that means that, well, they're literally very, very close to Kuwait, to Bahrain, to Qatar, to even Dubai and Oman and all these places, and therefore it is actually relatively easy to strike US bases if you wanted to.

Speaker 1: 3:40

Hopefully that won't happen, but I'm just saying that would then trigger a bigger conflict. What would that then do? Well, that would probably result in the US destroying Iranian oil gas facilities, especially the major refineries here. Right? And if they do that, well, yes, it still removes a massive amount of oil production, because at the moment, a lot of oil is going to China. Now China can't buy Iranian oil. They're going to have to buy oil somewhere else, which will still drive stock prices up. So this is significant one way or another, right?

Speaker 1: 4:09

So are the maps somewhat helpful? If these are somewhat helpful, let me know. Put a one in the chat or an M for map and we're going to move on to what you actually want to be watching, and you might want to write this down. I highly recommend you do, because this is not stuff that most people look at. The futures market opens far earlier than the stock market. So the futures market actually opens, and I'm hoping that this little kitten isn't going to destroy any cables from my desk here. It opens at 6 pm today, eastern Time, so Sunday, right? Thanks for the M's and the 1's there, guys.

Speaker 1: 4:45

So what are we going to be looking at? Well, there's no point in looking at it right now, because the market is still closed, futures are still closed, but my goal is to get you up to speed so that when the market opens, you actually know what to look at, what to look for. And the tickers are these, and you might want to write these down or take a screenshot of these For the S&P, the futures are ES, it's NQ. For the Nasdaq, if you want to look at the Dow Jones, it's YM. And gold futures are called GC and oil futures are called CL, and you can look that up in pretty much any charting software out there. You can just type into Google, just type ES futures into Google and you'll see the chart right. This data is available freely. Do that at 6 pm today, if you happen to be awake at that time, and that'll give you a lot of information. Now, there's a good one there, marshall. The other thing to look at will be VIX, because VIX is also a future which will also open at 6 pm today, new York time right, which will be my 6 am, by which point I will hopefully be sound asleep, unless one of these cats decides to wake me, which is also entirely possible. Now, helpful, yes, no, put it in the chat. Why rain, yes or no? Let me know Now what's the impact and then we look at actual stocks.

Speaker 1: 6:03

We look at actual sectors that I'm watching. What's the impact? And then we look at actual stocks. We look at actual sectors that I'm watching, because I'll be asking why is Zim down 6%? Because people sold it.

Speaker 1: 6:11

Now we'll talk about Israeli stocks in a second. We look at the Israeli market. We took a look at what's likely going to get some traction there and, by the way, if you look at the Zim stocks I hope you did look at that as well it's moving well within its pattern. So don't focus on the percentages. You've got to look at the pattern, you've got to look at the chart. Once you understand the pattern, everything becomes cleaner and clearer and it's no longer a percentage game, it's a pattern game and if you want to learn that, you know what to do. Right, there is a masterclass down here somewhere. Why am I so small? Actually, I just realized how small I am. I've been shrunk, kitten-sized, apparently. There I am slightly bigger. So what are we watching out here for? Well, learn the rules, learn the patterns. That's really, really important.

Speaker 1: 6:58

Now, usually, when something like this happens, oil prices will surge because we fear the disruption that I just outlined. It's relatively easy for Iran to disrupt. They can do it two ways. They can either disrupt their own production, which would be kind of stupid, but, you know, by attacking the US forces in the region. In our case, we're definitely going to get those oil and gas terminals that are blown up Well, not definitely, but likely, I would say, and that's one thing or they could simply attack oil and gas, say, tankers that are cruising through the Gulf, which would do the same sort of thing. So investors are therefore likely to buy US Treasuries that might be too boring for you and probably also gold. We're going to look at some gold stocks in just a second. Some actual, real name tickers, right?

Speaker 1: 7:48

The second thing is, well, defense contractors are likely, well, gain attention. Well, yes, they're likely going to continue to go up because, well, you blow things up. You need more munition, right, you need to. You know everyone in the region is going to spend more money on arms, you know, like everybody else is already. So it's good for defense contractors. War is a very, very profitable thing, sadly, which is why we have so many of them, right? Maybe you disagree with that? That's also okay. Let me know in the chat.

Speaker 1: 8:14

Now, typically, as I say, the Middle East supplies 30% of the world's oil, so spike prices. Now the real concern is, if it takes a really long time, if you get into a really big conflict lasts forever. It would then cause inflation, which would lower stock prices. But generally speaking, higher oil prices mean lower stock prices, except for oil and gold and a few other things that we're looking at here Now what to watch out for. Watch out for the crude oil futures. I gave you the ticker above. The energy sector overall should see a lot of movement. Treasury yields, if they drop. That would be a good thing in a sense, but it's quite possible. And we also probably see some dollar strengthening. Just as people flee into US treasuries, they have to buy dollars and therefore the dollar strengthens somewhat, which would be kind of the likely outcome here Now most of the time.

Speaker 1: 9:14

And we've had a lot of conflict in the Middle East. I mean, I'm not going to list every war we've had in the Middle East, but we have had a lot of wars in the Middle East which is largely due to the nature of their borders. Have you seen the borders in the Middle East? Have you seen the madness that actually kicked off on all this stuff. Middle East map right, Note that the borders are pretty much all straight lines. Can you see those Fancy bloody map, isn't it? We just wanted this so you see these possible place so that the natives would fight each other forever.

Speaker 1: 9:47

That was actually British foreign policy as far as I'm concerned. Now, I've offended all the Brits on the chat here, but you guys know it's true, that's what they did. Look at India and Pakistan, for example. Right, there's a lot of places that did that rather successfully from their point of view, not so successfully for humanity. So, really, what it all depends on is will energy infrastructure be hit? And that could be Iranian energy infrastructure, because it is a large oil producer, despite sanctions, because it all goes to China. Or it could be any other infrastructure in the region. It could be mines floating into the Gulf, like all sorts of stuff that would just take a long time to clear out. And therefore, thanks to the British for that, and I know they were very yeah, that's just what they did when they sort of withdrew from the empire. They just thought, well, let's just screw it up so that they'll never come and fight us. That was kind of the policy there. So that's one thing to look at.

Speaker 1: 10:55

Now, what's been the response from Iran? Well, they have struck Israel, since 86 were wounded by an Iranian missile attack. It looks pretty severe stuff, right? This is in Haifa, I believe so, or is it? This is Tel Aviv? Actually, I think there was also one in Haifa that might have been an Israeli one, but either way, not good right?

Speaker 1: 11:21

So one of the things that's probably a relatively safe haven, no matter what you think about what's going to happen here, is gold. Gold is seeing the biggest inflow into gold in the last 10 years plus. We're expecting $80 billion to flow into gold this year, which is tremendous. We are in gold. We're up close to 40% on our gold stocks already over the last two months or so and hopefully we're going to lock in some more gains on those, so that's probably a relatively safe haven to go into.

Speaker 1: 11:53

So shall we look at some sectors and stocks to buy? Would that be useful? Let me know in the chat, put a smiley in there, or something anthony says you can always blame the british. Yes, absolutely, we can always blame the brits. Um, well, they did rule about a fifth of the world, so they had an opportunity to, uh, do a lot of interesting things. They actually I mean, there are also positive paths, right. They did also do some good things, but they also did, obviously, you know, some not so good things. They just did a lot. I guess that's one way of looking at it. They did a lot more than most people.

Speaker 1: 12:28

So, first of all, this is the Israeli Stock Exchange. T-a-s-e is the index there and that closed today at an all-time high, up 7.5%, and is the market still open? Is the market still open? I think this was a weekly candle. Let me look at the day candle here. There we go. I have no idea when the ETH market closes. Can we look at a minute chart or something? Look at a minute chart, or something. Looks like Is that still open? 8.39? No, it looks like it's closed. But yeah, they had a very, very good day.

Speaker 1: 13:07

Why? Well, I suppose it removes some uncertainty, doesn't it? It removes some uncertainty of what's going to happen there if these Iranian facilities are actually destroyed and we don't know that for sure, we'll probably know that, um, in a day or so, I imagine. Um, then that is a positive, I suppose, for for for israel, right? Uh, so that's probably why, but it also gives you a little bit of an idea that the market isn't expecting this all-out big war, and I think that's something to bear in mind. This isn't going to be World War III. I don't think this is even going to be like Iraq or something like that, because I don't think Trump's going to send ground troops in there or any of that. Maybe there'll be some special forces nonsense or something, but I just don't think anyone's going to send 100,000 troops into Iran and try to change the regime. I think we've learned our lesson and I think we remember how unpleasant that was, because Iran was responsible for a lot of the US deaths in Iraq. They funded a lot of those militia there. So that's a positive in a sense.

Speaker 1: 14:10

And then, if you look at what sectors are we actually bullish on? Well, let me just look at what sectors have we been bullish on, at least for a week, two or three weeks for most of them. And, um, this is one us aerospace and defense sector and it's been going up very, very nicely, right, uh, if you look at that sort of pattern up here, I should probably use a different color pen than red. Uh, very nicely, and it's been going sideways all last week. So it's that sort of sideways flag. I would expect that to break out again and if it does, I think it'll be a nice opportunity for us to double down, maybe on individual stocks, maybe on the sector. I'm not telling you what to buy, I'm just saying this is what I'm watching. So I don't think that much has actually changed.

Speaker 1: 14:57

Now, tech software, particularly software. I've been very bullish on software these last couple of weeks so we actually saw on Friday a nice little pullback there on software stocks. So if that continues and if the market opens on Monday and everyone's a bit worried about what's going to happen and therefore there'll be a bit of uncertainty and people are going to sell the high quality software names, I would be very tempted to load up the dip on some high quality software names. Okay, hang on. One second. I'm going to have to put the kitten back into the other ones because she's a bit upset. One second Okay, sorry about that. Kitten was calling. I'd separate her from the other ones. So, yeah, I think software is definitely something I'd be watching. Quality software names is what I'd be watching.

Speaker 1: 16:00

Still looks very good and actually it looks still quite early to me, and that's always what I like, right, we like to be in things before they happen. And if anybody here has watched the masterclass, who's watched the masterclass, put an M in the chat and you'll sort of get an idea of what I'm talking about here. Right, it's that sort of zigzag pattern that we look for, excuse me, and we look for that to break out towards the sort of north there, right, that towards the sort of north there, right. That's where we wanted to break out. We want to buy basically here. That's our buy point, and you don't have to do that with the index, you can do it with the individual underlying stocks there. Okay, some of you guys you've got the M in there, you've watched the masterclass. Was it worth it? Was it worth it? Let me know in the chat.

Speaker 1: 16:43

So I think it's quite a good opportunity actually here, because we had that pullback on friday, a little bit war concerns. It might pull back a little bit more, even, um, but unless we see some like cataclysmic thing happening, which would be, you know, some massive escalation of the war, um, I would imagine this will be relatively short-lived and we're going to pull back and everybody who didn't buy the dip will be like, oh man, I should have right. Um, always within my rules. Um, yes, yes, yes, definitely worth watching. Yes, yeah, yes, okay, brilliant, um, so anybody who hasn't watched that yet, you might want to do that. I put the link in the chat for you guys as well. Uh, here it is felix friendsorg slash, get free. And the goal there is to get you guys free. That's really the intention there. I just deleted one. I'll do that for um. I'll put it in there. Okay, brilliant, so do that. Always, stick to the rules. That's what I would do.

Speaker 1: 17:37

Um, financials as well. We've been been very bullish on just banks and financials. Uh, generally speaking and again you might see the reason why because we're bullish, we're above the moving averages, but we're in this sort of lovely kind of pattern here which would indicate that somewhere here or there might be a good entry point and therefore we're liking those right. And again, you know Morgan Stanley isn't going to be affected by this. You, this. There isn't any M&A activity, including Iranian companies, because there have been sanctions on Iran for absolute ages. None of this really matters. The US economy is there. The US financial market is still there. None of this matters, no matter how far this spirals. So therefore, I think we're going to continue to nibble on banks. The other one we're nibbling on is semis.

Speaker 1: 18:28

So semiconductors, chip companies, think AMD, think ARM, think some of the smaller ones out there. And again it's actually done nothing. Last week it's basically just gone sideways. And again, we like that. We like stocks, that sort of do this for a long period of time and then either two choices right. Either they collapse, in which case we don't buy, but if they break out up here, then we have a buy order up there and then we make money. So, like we did it here, right, buy point was here, right, cha-ching, bada-bing, and we make some money. That's really what this is all about. So learn those rules. It's all in the masterclass.

Speaker 1: 19:06

Utilities has been making us some crazy money. I mean, some of them are up like 40%, which is really a lot for utilities, and it just goes to show you can make money in the most boring thing in the world. And again we've got this lovely little sideways pattern here, which, essentially, is where the lower end of our trend, right, so our zone here is the lower end of our trend. Our zone here is the lower end. Again. That gives us potentially an opportunity to nibble on some more high-quality utility stocks there, or even the sector, and watch that pull back up if this war does not become some sort of catastrophe.

Speaker 1: 19:49

Let me see what I miss here in the chat. Kathy Wood is buying Archer oh dear. I always question my decisions when Kathy buys them. Am I really horribly wrong on this one? Let me just double check the chart again. So that's one thing. And then look at quality names. I mean something like a Microsoft. It doesn't get much more high quality than that Very well diversified. You see a pullback on these kind of stocks and we've had a massive rally here. You kind of expect a pullback. I'd probably buy the pullback.

Speaker 1: 20:22

Some of the gold stocks we're in, like Groy here, had a very good Friday. It was a very good week. It was a very good month for blue-blooded gold stocks. We are presently up something like 40% on this in four weeks, which is pretty good. So again, any pullbacks I definitely buy, but I'm not sure we're going to get a gold pullback anytime soon. I think this might pop out some more, which is what I would expect. So I think gold's going to look good. Here's another gold stock, for example. We're in new gold. Ngd is the ticker and this looks a little bit more promising, perhaps for an entry point, because what we've had here is a little bit of consolidation right and we're not at the top of that range. So that might give us a little bit of an entry point. As it breaks out through the recent highs, we might want to add a little bit to that. Again, it's obviously not financial advice, that's all rose is doing.

Speaker 1: 21:16

So what I'd say to you is be calm, don't worry about a thing don't watch the war footage. By the way, it's one of the things that messes with your head terribly. I'd say war footage and porn are probably the two things that we should avoid, because both screw up your mind and make it almost impossible for people to think clearly. So don't watch that nonsense. Don't watch the explosions and the blow-ups, as exciting as it might sound. Instead, take that time and actually just learn and learn and learn and sit down and make your plans, make your goals, write down your dreams and live a beautiful life, and that's the most positive thing, the most impactful thing you can actually do. Watching Fox News isn't going to change a thing in the world and therefore I'd avoid it.

Speaker 1: 22:03

So don't let the drivel of the news destroy your mojo and instead use what's happening out there. It's an opportunity. There's going to be some great opportunities in the coming week. I'll be sharing some of those with you during the week. But ultimately, you can only really get the timing properly right if you know how to do it yourself, and the only way you know how to do it yourself is if you do it in advance. So I'm going to wait till the future's open and then on Monday morning I'm going to make my shopping list for the week. I would usually do on a Sunday, but in this case it really makes sense to wait for the future's reaction, and then we're going to make some money this week. So if that was helpful for you, let me know in the chat. And, more importantly, do one thing for yourself, and that is actually go and learn. So watch the masterclass. Watch it a couple of times, because it might really sink in that way. I'll put the link for you in the chat.

Speaker 1: 22:55

Here again, felixfriendsorg slash, get free, and I hope this little update on a Sunday gave you a little bit of peace of mind and, as I said, I wanted to do this because so many of you are writing to me going what's going to happen. Oh my God, should I buy this? Should I sell that? Be calm, no FOMO. No one's ever really made any money with FOMO. Usually it leads to tears. So just follow the system, follow your protocol. If you haven't got one yet, use this as the incentive to have one because you're feeling FOMO. Right, if you had a system and rules, then you'd know what to do, and that's really what this is all about. So check out the 15-minute masterclass. It's much shorter than this video. Felixrentalorg, get free and I wish you beautiful rest of your weekend and amazing start to the week. And, if you want to join me, live tomorrow, same time, same place.