Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-morning live stream from a location you can probably now guess behind me. I thought I'd make it a little bit easier today, but today is a huge day because we've got a tariff shock coming in in just a couple of days. I want to give you the exact date when that's going to happen. I'll also walk you through why I'm actually bullish well, cautiously bullish, how much the market's expected to go up by this year, according to Wall Street's finest, and why we actually have enormously large huge even demand for stocks. And I also want to walk you through some winning stocks, because not all stocks are winners at the moment and this changes from time to time, and I want to walk you through that as well. And then we'll do a nice big Q&A, a juicy Q&A, and of course, we'll'll review off your favorite tech stocks the palantir's, the n videos, the sofas, the teslas and so on and if any of that would be of value to you, then um, put a one in the chat and I know that you're actually alive and you are not a bot and um, you're in the matrix indeed. Um, petronas towers. I made it a little easier today, didn't I with the whole guessing game Yesterday was pretty hard. Some of you guys still got it there. Now here's what we're going to walk through today the tariff shock coming in, the bullishness in the market, why the market will go up a certain amount and why the amount of stocks is huge, with winning stocks which they are. I'll give you at least three or four, and then we'll do a nice big Q&A and a review of everything else as well. So thanks for the ones, thanks for the likes, guys, and let's jump straight into it. We're sort of working on a laptop setup, as you can see here, so things might be a little bit less, you know, sort of produced than usual.

Speaker 1: 1:44

El Presidente Trump has set a firm deadline, july 8th, by which trade deals must be finalized. So he's basically setting the world a deadline by which to hand in their homework and he's basically saying submit your best offers by Wednesday, otherwise we're going to reinstate tariffs which they have paused, right. So by Wednesday. So he's basically making it very, very, very clear that in 36 days, just 36 days, the tariff pauses that we have on the Canadians, the snow Canadians, sorry, snow Mexicans, and the real Mexicans, and then the Europeans and the Chinese and everybody else in the world, and the penguins never forget the penguins. So they all have to come and come to the table, and if they don't, tariffs will be back. Is that going to hit the market If there's no deal? Yes, how much Less than last time? Why? Because, well, I'll give you actually one good reason from the Fed in a second. That'll really make it very, very clear. But part of it is also that we're just getting used to this, right, but the Fed's actually giving us some data there that goes exactly against everything they've been telling us. Surprise, surprise.

Speaker 1: 2:57

If you actually want to know what stocks to buy in this particular moment, anybody care to know what stocks to buy today, or this week, or this month, or or this year, or next year or the year after, or in five years, or in 10 years, or just generally, what stocks will actually get you to your retirement faster or maybe, if you're already retired, get you to a better retirement? Well, guess what? Wall Street doesn't wake up in the morning and guess what stock is a good buy today. They don't sort of have this epiphany of oh my God, this is the one I need to buy. Somebody tweeted about it. No, they actually have rules, otherwise they wouldn't have a business and they'd go out of business. Instead, they make tens of billions of dollars in profits a year because they follow very, very simple rules.

Speaker 1: 3:35

Now can you get access to the rules? Yep, you can. How Well, as I suggested the other day, you could kidnap Jamie Dimon, but that was probably not a real suggestion. Instead, what I would do is just learn them for free from me. How do you do that? I pinned it to the chat. It's literally pinned to the top of the chat. It's phoenixfriendsorg slash get free. Why do we call it get free? Because I believe it'll actually get you free. It's sort of as simple as that. I'll put it in the chat for you again. Here it is. So who's going to do that? Who's actually going to go and get free? Put an F or a free in the chat. So I know that you are paying attention and taking action.

Speaker 1: 4:20

Now, this here is a data point you might actually want to take a note of, because Goolsbee, who's that guy with a very, very cool name who's a Fed president Goolsbee. I'd like to have a name like Goolsbee. That would be Felix Preen or Felix Goolsbee. People would remember that right, I might rename myself Goolsbee. He's basically saying we're seeing very little data, surprisingly little data affected by tariffs. Loving all the Fs there guys, loving all the Fs Canal and Emily and John and Brandon and Slough and loads of people.

Speaker 1: 4:54

Don't listen to Jamie Dimon. Well, he's a smart guy and he also makes about $35 million a year, so he's not altogether a tool. Yeah, probably the most influential, most powerful banker in the world. Literally they literally bank countries. So I wouldn't write him off completely. Might have an agenda when he talks. I'm not saying he doesn't, but yeah, I wouldn't write him off completely.

Speaker 1: 5:19

So what does that mean? It means that tariffs surprise, surprise don't actually cause inflation and it actually makes sense, if you think this through. Why? Well, first of all, there is an alternative, right? So you have several layers of options. So you know, say, you start out and you're buying your parts from mexico or something. Now there are tariffs on those. So what do you then do? Do you then just go and keep buying those same parts? No, first of all, you could negotiate with the Mexicans for a lower price. You might not pass on the entire price increase. You might find a supplier somewhere else that is slightly cheaper, maybe domestically, or at least not as expensive as the one with the tariff. And even if you did pass on the price increase, it would be a tariff increase, a price increase one time. What about next year? By next year, your price will probably be lower again. Why? Because whoever you're buying it from will have ramped up their manufacturing by that point. So tariffs don't translate into the same price increases. Like a 25% tariff will not increase prices by 25%. That's essentially what I'm saying, and that just makes basic economic sense.

Speaker 1: 6:23

I'm not saying that tariffs are necessarily a brilliant idea. I'm not saying I agree with the president you guys elected. But that's just economics, right? I used to be an economist. I quit because I realized that they're generally well, the least well-paid bankers out there. Now this is another reason I've been recruited by the Tyrell Corporation. Who's Tyrell Don't? They make chips, crisps, potato chips that's what they make. Smash the like button. I appreciate that as well.

Speaker 1: 6:56

So what makes me bullish on the market? Well, when all of Wall Street turns bearish. Seriously, because when everybody's bearish, it's very likely that we're all about to turn bullish. And if you look at this little chart here, this was where Wall Street expected the market to be by the end of this year. Last December so six months ago they all said we're going to be somewhere between, basically, 6,500 and 7,100 points on the S&P 500. Now, then, tariffs kicked in and they've all cut their forecasts to basically a thousand points less.

Speaker 1: 7:37

Why JP Morgan is at the very bottom of that? Why? Because they're sheep, and once one of them starts moving, everyone's like. They lowered their price target. I think we've got to do the same thing, just to be safe. Just be safe. We shouldn't be that far off the consensus. So they're consensus people, right? They all want to be roughly in the same boat because they don't want to be caught out being horribly, horribly wrong. So if everybody's wrong, it's okay. It's just you don't want to be the one that's wrong. That's how you get fired. So that alone makes me actually quite positive, because I think it's much more likely that we're going to end up somewhere back here than all the way back down there where JP Morgan thinks we are. Why in the world? Well, not in the world.

Speaker 1: 8:19

In the US, what happens after you elect a president, democrat or Republican? The market initially tends to go down a bit and then it recovers because we kind of realize this isn't actually that different. They promised all this change. Remember Obama? He promised a lot of change and there wasn't that much change. I mean there was some change. Caitlyn Jenner that was surprising, but most of the time, politicians don't surprise us as much as Caitlyn. So, generally speaking, the market recovers after a short sort of panic that this might be an administration that actually does a lot.

Speaker 1: 8:58

Now, the second thing part of the reason why everybody went bearish is that the Fed came out and said guys, the economy is crashing, we've got a recession. Remember that A couple of weeks back they were saying we're going to have a recession. The economy was shrinking, we had negative economic growth, cnn was running just full day specials on the recession. And we miss Obama. He was a cool dude right. He sounds like a guy you'd want to sort of hang out with. You know, shoot some hoops with sort of type thing. I'm not sure if or what he achieved.

Speaker 1: 9:33

You got a Nobel Prize for peace, which is kind of ironic. You got that for creating peace in Libyabya, egypt, iraq and, I believe, syria, right, uh, four countries that are basically at civil war and a complete freaking basket cases and where probably more people have died since. So, um, yeah, but then the guys who fund the nobel prize, uh, actually have a division that makes what? Gunpowder? Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what they do Explosives, nobel Corporation. They make explosives, I think, in Saudi Arabia. So you know, obviously no link there whatsoever.

Speaker 1: 10:17

Now look at this chart. What do you see on this chart? That is astounding? The Atlanta Fed. You know the chaps from down South. They're saying that GDP is going to take off like a rocket ship. Like you know, meta planet stock it's going to be 4.5% GDP growth, apparently. How does that work? Well, it's actually a result of tariffs, because imports lower. The GDP Doesn't make a lot of sense, but it's just, economists don't make a lot of sense. Gdp it doesn't make a lot of sense, but it's just, economists don't make a lot of sense. Now, if we have less imports in the US because of tariffs, gdp growth actually massively explodes. Now what happens when GDP growth explodes? Everybody starts singing and dancing and it just generally feels happier and starts spending more money, and GDP growth actually keeps going up. It's sort of a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. So I'm looking forward to this data less imports so when these tariff pauses are over, this number is going to go absolutely berserk.

Speaker 1: 11:40

We do not miss Obama or Big Mike. Who is Big Mike? Who's Big Mike? I missed that reference. I'm not particularly clued up on US politics. I just make fun of whoever happens to be in the White House to be honest with you, I don't particularly care who's there Explodes like an egg in the microphone. Is that me laughing into the microphone? Is it Okay? I'll try to be a little bit more considerate on the microphone usage. Is it Okay? I'll try to be a little bit more, you know, more considerate on the microphone usage. It's just when traveling, you know, you have spotlights above, you have twin towers behind and microphones that are a little challenging. This is from Deutsche Bank and I don't usually pay much attention to Deutsche Bank because I believe Deutsche Bank is bankrupt, but not morally. Well, probably also morally, but actually balance sheet wise, but that's a whole nother story for another day.

Speaker 1: 12:34

But they're basically saying we're going to get a 10% upside from the S&P 3500 by year end, taking it to around 6,500 points. So you're starting to see the revision coming back in right, the positivity starting to come in. And what are they looking at? They're looking at simply at buybacks, at inflows of money into the stock market. And one of the things they're looking at here and this is a chart that I'm sure you look at every morning of a breakfast Darling how are the systematic strategies positioned right now in the S&P? Ask your better half that tomorrow, and I'm sure she will throw some toast at you or whatever it is you have for breakfast.

Speaker 1: 13:12

But essentially, we are here, and what does that mean? It means we've come up quite significantly from the bottom, so we're no longer at the bottom, but we have quite a long way to go in terms of ability to rally longer before these guys start selling off again because they think we've gone too high. Uh, morally and financially yes, probably both. Yes, probably both. The moral part has probably been been gone longer than the financial part. But yeah, they have a total basket case of um. We don't need to get into that.

Speaker 1: 13:45

But anyway, this is the other thing, and this is also what the deutsche bank lot are looking at here, and that is buybacks. And the actual buybacks we've seen are that can you make out that sort of yellowish line there that I'm drawing over that? These are the actual buybacks. And then you've got the announced numbers. So what's planned and that number is getting higher and higher and, I believe, will exceed significantly the 2008 number, 18. Even so, why was the 2018 number so big? Trump gave us nice big tax cuts, which he's also doing right now, and that means that this number, which is already probably going to exceed that, is likely to be somewhere off the charts. So that was what. Good for stocks.

Speaker 1: 14:35

Now, who buys back a lot of stocks? Well, the big profitable tech companies. They buy back a lot of their own shares and they're going to buy back a lot more shares. So CapEx heavy businesses are going to get a nice big tax break, I think, here. So, um, that's gonna be pretty good. Um, deutsche bank bankrupt 45 this year. Yeah, well, there isn't really much correlation between that banks bank. Nobody understands banks balance sheets, so very little to do with that. Plus the, the germans will bail them out.