Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this free market live stream. I'm on the road, as you can obviously tell, but I wanted to catch you guys live because today is a big, big, big, big, big, big day, even in the market. We've got the escalation in the Ukraine and how that affects you Maybe you've just woken up and are just hearing of it. We also have the new trade war. The trade war is back in full force and how that's hitting your portfolio and your favorite stocks. Plus, wall Street has just put out something like they're buying something that they condemned, and it's big and it's beautiful. There's a seven in it that might be giving it away, so I want to walk you through that. That's Goldman Sachs, by the way, one of the leading investment banks in the world, telling their clients. This is what we love. We also have the data from what the hedge funds are buying there, so that's going to be pretty useful. We then also want to review our favorite tech stocks. We'll do a big, big and beautiful, a non-deficit related Q&A, and I shared to you on the screen here. This is basically the plan how the escalation in the Ukraine affects you. Number two, why the new trade war is hitting your portfolios today. What Wall Street's buying review of the tech stocks Q&A and pre-market? It's not hideous. It's actually improved a little. It was a little bit deeper and darker just now. But Google, for example, still down 2%. Tesla down 0.8% that was about 2% just now. Walmart's dropping, apple is dropping Big tech or broadly down-ish, but not monstrously so. Uh. So we want to really properly understand how that works and if you can guess where I am, you'll, you'll get a cookie. Actually, the backdrop is pretty hard to guess. I would think in that direction, in this direction, you'd be able to tell it in a flash. So I don't want to give it away, but we'll, we'll give it away at some point over the next few days. I'm here for a couple of days. So if you caught me this morning on the live webinar and I said I was going to run to the airport afterwards, or this Sunday or Sunday evening, perhaps you know I wasn't kidding, right, so let me share with you then.

Speaker 1: 2:00

The first item here is what has happened in in the ukraine. So and you have to forgive me, I'm working on a laptop so I might be a little bit, a little bit slower here. Uh, this is what just happened. The ukraine struck russia in four places, four air bases that host long-range bombers that are nuclear capable, and apparently, apparently, they destroyed 30, 40 of those bombers, which is something like a third of Russia's long range bomber fleet Pretty significant, and you can see, this is really really really freaking far away from the Ukraine. Ukraine's down here, right.

Speaker 1: 2:40

So how did they do that? Well, they did, uh, in vegas. I'm not in mogadishu. No, that would be, that would be unusual. Can you travel to mogadishu? Um, are you in your hotel room? That's definitely true. No, it is also not tokyo, but I mean, hotel room looks like any other hotel room nowadays. Right, it's pretty hard to. Honestly, it's almost impossible to guess from this, I would think, with the reflections there in the background in the window. Yeah, I think it's a tough call, unless you just run into me in town, which, of course, is possible.

Speaker 1: 3:12

So why did they do this? How did they do this? They apparently put drones into sort of small shipping containers and these were then trucked deep into Russia shipping containers, and these were then trucked deep into Russia, and that's where it started from. The Ukrainian leader said this was planned like a year and nine months ago, or something like that, so deep within the Biden administration. But there's a problem here, and the problem is we've got a little clip of it from Twitter as well. Play that for you so you can see it. This is apparently footage of these bombers being destroyed.

Speaker 1: 3:49

The problem with this is that Trump said just a few days ago if Putin does not want peace, terrible things are going to happen, really terrible things, something like that. So it makes you think well, did Trump know which you'd think he would, because obviously US intelligence would have been involved in this. And if he did know, then well, what does this do for peace negotiations? If your mediator is the one attacking you, then it's a whole different story, right? So Robert Redford just joined us today, one of my favorite actors, brilliant. So that's part of that story.

Speaker 1: 4:29

Now, how does that actually affect you and why does that affect you? Well, not having peace in Europe does a couple of things, and the impact is significant, and I'll try to write that out. If I'm allowed to use a pen, this is always up to Bill. Whether I'm allowed to use a pen, this is always up to Bill. Whether I'm allowed to use a pen. Am I allowed to use a pen Bill? Yes, so it does a couple of things. It actually causes inflation. So why does it cause inflation? The pen is a little bit laggy apparently. Let's try to zoom in a little bit and see if we can do that better. Maybe we'll have to type, or something that is meant to read inflation. Why does it cause inflation? Because Ukraine is actually sort of at the core of, well, a lot of production of wheat and food products and so on.

Speaker 1: 5:18

An end to the war would reverse that. Plus, there are sanctions, if you hadn't noticed, on Russian oil and gas and a bunch of other things that they export, huge kind of mineral exporter, and it means that the sanctions are likely to get worse, not better, which again isn't brilliant. They're also a rare earth exporter and everything else. So it just bid us to take the pen from his island. Yes, absolutely, you think I'm in Japan, You're a little off, you're a little bit off, so that isn't brilliant.

Speaker 1: 5:54

Now, from a humanitarian point of view, I don't think war is brilliant. One of our guys working with us on Trade Vision, dennis, he's been called up. He's there somewhere now at the front, no longer working with us, and I want those guys to come home safely. So I actually want this war to end, and I don't particularly care personally who owns another square inch of land or not, but this conflict seems to end. Look like it's going to last a long time. So it doesn't seem like that looks particularly likely. Now. Some of you are getting quite warm there, with the locations very warm, actually very, very hot. Maybe you're tracking me. And then the second side to this, of course, is well, guess who's going to make money out of this? Somebody always makes money, right? Well, defense stocks and I have to write slowly because for some reason that's the only way it works. So defense stocks should do quite well today.

Speaker 1: 6:46

So if you wanted to look at, let me pull up the other one here it's a little laggy, isn't it? Is it a little laggy on your end too? If we look at um palantir, yeah, it's, uh. Well it's. It's down a smidgen 0.3 percent, but not a lot. Uh, what about something like boeing? You'd expect all those kind of defense type stocks to do quite well. Yeah, it's up 1.3 percent.

Speaker 1: 7:15

Right, it's really immoral, but it's just the reality, the sad reality of that, or something like Raytheon, or however you spell that. I never know how you spell that. Am I spelling that wrong? What's the ticker R-T-R-T-X-R? What's the Raytheon ticker? Does anybody know? I never know that one. Am I spelling it wrong? Who knows?

Speaker 1: 7:45

Anyway, you can put up a bunch of these. L3 Harris will be another one. You'd think that they would do quite well from this. And yes, they are actually up. They're gapping up here, but a percentage point. Rtx is another one. Okay, then rename to RTX Corp, have they? Okay, I missed that one. So that also looks pretty good. So there is obviously money to be made in misery there always is. But it does potentially have an inflationary impact, which isn't brilliant. So an end to the war would lower oil prices, lower gas prices. It'd lower a lot of input costs for everybody else there. Thanks guys.

Speaker 1: 8:20

Have you noticed that there is now a ranking when you guys are active in the chat? Whoever is most active gets a number one, two, three, sort of type thing. Leonardo, yeah, drs, I'm still on that one, for example. That's up a little bit 0.7% here and creating a very, very nice sort of pattern. Right, are you guys starting to recognize these patterns? Who here has watched the master class and recognizes the pattern? Put an m in the chat so I can identify you, my friends, right, that sort of thing. You can start to see that, right, and then what are you going to do? You're going to? You're going to do this, aren't you? And? And you know what the next step is. If you've watched the master class, if you haven haven't, go down below to felixfriendsorg, slash, get free Links down below First one in the description and actually learn when we buy something.

Speaker 1: 9:12

So we bought this one before that breakout and now we're holding it and we're waiting for the next breakout because it looks pretty promising here, seeing a lot of Ms there, I'm seeing a lot of Ms. How do some of you know where I actually am? It is a little spooky, my friends. Am I that predictable or is there something in the background that gives it away? Is there, perhaps? Perhaps there is Now. Check out BBAI for this pattern, says who just said that Mikey, bbai, I want to look at also what Wall Street's buying here. And, yeah, I see what you're saying, I see what you're saying there and it's exactly that sort of pattern that we're looking for. It's sort of like that was kind of the breakout, right, that one here, and then we've kind of coming down.

Speaker 1: 10:03

This is your second chance, your sort of textbook second chance. By the looks of it, we've all stayed in that room, nick, you have. Okay, all of you, all of you together. Hey, ukraine has the right to defend itself, that's true. Is it a democracy? I'm not so sure about that one. I think it's. Yeah, okay, we let that one slide. But yeah, democracy is a term. I mean, you know, saddam got 99%. That was a democracy of sorts.

Speaker 1: 10:37

So let's move on from the war stuff. We have, of course, also the trade dispute with China. That seems to be kind of coming out of control again. Why is that getting out of control? Well, ultimately and I mean one of the places you might always want to look to see how big the market impacts on anything happening in the news is VIX. Right, the fear index. Fear index is at 1956, but, most importantly, it is up 5.6% here, but it was up a lot more so at one point. Today we're a whole point higher at 20.4. And so that's kind of a positive in a sense. Right, we woke up, felt a little scared and we're kind of calming down a little bit here.

Speaker 1: 11:20

The China thing essentially the US is saying look, we gave you guys a break and in return, we wanted rare earths, and you haven't given us any, and I guess that's China playing hardball, but either way, again, this does not seem to be going the way the market would like, which would be. Everybody sings Kumbaya and holds hands, so the more often we zigzag out of these crises, the less the impact, because the market gets bored of news, and that's always something to bear in mind. But, nuno Ferreira, you live in Hong Kong. Never seen Felix. Well, where do you hang out, my friend? Obviously not in the mountains where I hide. You want a trade vision sector filter. That's actually a very good idea. We were actually talking about that over the weekend, so I'll take a note of that. That's a good one.