Speaker 1: 0:00

Friedrichshafen, and welcome to this morning live stream. If you're feeling a bit glum about the market opening, there's a fair warning. It's looking pretty red. We've got Winston here to cheer us up, who's snoozing very peacefully through the whole mess. And there are four things that I want to get through to you today. Make sure you fully understand them. The tariff wars are back, as I threatened, and there is a reason. The market has basically given up on politics. I also want you to watch out for 11 30 am today. That's a big one and sort of end with like what if there's actually some good news here, and I'll show you some good news. We'll also run through all the key indices, look at where the support levels are, look at where the opportunities sit for favorite stocks and maybe our not so favorite stocks out there. And Winston's looking pretty chilled. He was, honestly, he wasn't feeling too great. I think he was just been a bit neglected the last couple of weeks with all the kittens and everything else. So I went to the beach with him this morning with a friend, and he was very happy and he's looking much, much happier. He's sort of smiling again, which is lovely. So, yeah, that's the Winston update. Let me share my screen with you. There we are. There is Winston, if you still want to see him at the same time as reading Trump's truth. This is already the first thing that kicked us off today, and this is, by the way, not the only bit of bad news this morning. Sorry about that. We have a couple of them. They kind of come in pairs.

Speaker 1: 1:23

The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the united states on trade, has been very difficult to deal with. Not really a surprise, it's. It's a massive bureaucracy. Um, they're powerful. Trade barriers that taxes, ridiculous corporate penalties, non-monetary trade barriers, monetary manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against American companies and more have led to a trade deficit of more than $250 million a year. Is that really it? Is that it $250 million a year, really? Okay, that's apparently unacceptable.

Speaker 1: 1:57

I'm recommending a straight and this is the problem with it 50% tariffs on everything the European Apparatchiks produce, starting on June 1, which is pretty soon. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for attention. Obviously, the world doesn't love that right. So well, gold's loving it perhaps. Yes, we'll look at that in a second. Which stocks are we watching? Okay, cool, we're going to look at that in a second.

Speaker 1: 2:23

First of all, you need to understand, like the setup, but where we're at this morning. This is where we're at this morning. Second piece of truth from um, your president if, uh, I have long ago informed tim cook of apple that I expect iphones to be sold in the united states, will be manufactured and built in the united states. So manufactured and built, not in in India or any place else. If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US Whoops.

Speaker 1: 2:53

So Apple basically makes everything in China, like literally everything is made in China and they thought, well, let's move it from China to India. And the attempt was kind of so pathetic, really, if you think about it, because not only were they saying we're going to move from China to India, but the company that basically makes all Apple products is called Foxconn. It's a Taiwanese company, but they manufacture it in China, mostly in Chengdu. And well, the Foxconn guys, we're going to keep the contracts and just make the same stuff in india, which of course begs the question like how many of those components would still be made in china. And then just, you know, assembled in india. Put a sticker on that sort of thing, a bit like, you know, fashion or furniture or everything else, um, that's, you know they claim made to made in france or italy or something, when it's actually made in china. So trump not going for that one. And?

Speaker 1: 3:45

And the Apple stock, I can tell you, is not a happy bunny this morning. Where is she? There she is, she is irate. She is down almost 4%. This morning, trading at that blue dotted line here dropped massively below the support. We're basically back at 7th of May lows. We're kind of entering the trade war territory again there. On Apple and maybe you don't care about Apple, I've been thinking it's a rubbish stock for a while, but it is still the biggest or second biggest component of basically every index found out there, and Winston might be blocking a little bit of the screen there, right? So I'm going including pharma from Europe.

Speaker 1: 4:28

Well, the devil is always in the detail, to see whether there are carve-outs for certain things. Possibly, I don't know. But the bond market and Wall Street was expecting that Donald J Trump would cut the deficit, right. We're promised this great big deficit-cutting thing and the market always expects everything deficit, right, we're promised this great big deficit-cutting thing and the market always expects everything today, right Now. Sorry, winston, yeah, yeah, I've just removed him. You're quite right on that one. Winston was blocking things. There he is.

Speaker 1: 5:04

So this conversation is on Twitter today and I thought it was pretty insightful. This chap here says given the disasters to your people and I'm not saying that it's disasters, I have no real opinion on US politics the only chance the US has is explosive GDP growth. If that doesn't happen in the next two or three years, we're cooked. And he's right on that, I'd say. And then this chap says I, if this is why elon has somewhat moved away from politics in order to accelerate gdp growth with the humanoid robots, because that's the only solution. And elon writes on target right. So we are no longer hoping that politicians are going to do the unpopular thing, which is cut spending and actually make the government live within its means, because, well, people would probably lose their seats, right? Everyone's like oh yeah, great, cut the spending, cut the waste. But if you actually say to them I'm actually going to reduce services to you, I'm going to lay people off, close stuff, you know, you see what happens. It's a very hard thing to do, so interesting move. I think that Elon seems to not have any faith in the US politics machine to deliver a reasonable budget right, which would not be a massive deficit. So what does that then mean? Well, you've got to do something about it.

Speaker 1: 6:26

Trump's saying he might sell Fannie and May and Freddie Mac, which were bailed out at some point and are government-owned largely, which is what Bill Ackman has been investing in for some time. So he's probably right on that one. So Winston's never in the way. Says Colin, there we go. Winston, you see, you are treasured after all. There he is sleeping very peacefully. Winston, you see, you are treasured after all. There he is sleeping very peacefully.

Speaker 1: 7:00

So, essentially, the US can at this point get massive, massive economic growth, like economic growth you've never seen, which is possible. I'll show you a data point on that in a second. It can sell off some family silver like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and so on, which is probably a good idea, and it'll bring in some money Not a lot, but tens of billions. The whole thing is probably worth about $200 billion or so. But they're not going to sell off the whole thing because there isn't a buyer for it in one go. So far, I might buy a Freddie. That seems very unlikely, stephen. It's a bit of a big beast and I don't think it's the sort of business they'd really want to get into. Uh, funny, freddie. They're basically um state-owned mortgage companies, so, um, they a lot of us mortgages run through these guys. Uh, so in theory, it's a good business, but they came out of the 2008 global financial crisis. Um, holding the bag right now.

Speaker 1: 7:46

This guy you're gonna love that profile picture um, make sure the hair is in place. He's speaking today at 11.30 am and typically when he speaks, it's good news. And that's a little bit, I think, how we are getting used to this Trump administration. You get a hit with the bad news and then there is the good news that comes afterwards. So who knows what the good news is. Maybe it'll be a trade deal with Antarctica or something. The Penguin said, yes, I don't know. Hopefully it's going to be something better, and obviously I say that in jest. I'm hoping we're going to get some good news, but if we don't, well, this is why the market's tanking. This is why the market's tanking.

Speaker 1: 8:24

So it doesn't mean you can't make money. No, it doesn't. It means you can still make money. No, it doesn't means you can still make money. You just got to be in the right thing and I've been looking and investing into defensive things for the last couple of weeks because that seems like the reasonable thing to do. Um, um, uranium stocks you're funny, my friend, because I actually recorded a video on that. Just um, it's an interesting one. I'll be very careful with the, the fomo element of that one, but it is definitely an interesting sector.

Speaker 1: 8:58

Here my negative traits are printing um, good, good, good stuff, george, I'm glad. I'm glad you're making money on something. Um, but yeah, ultimately you can always make money. You just need to know the rules, like george here. Um, and then you don't rely on the index delivering for you, because at the moment, let me like george here. And then you don't rely on the index delivering for you, because at the moment, let me just take the support away from you. Here we're trading at 575. That's sort of danger territory for the s&p, because that's where I'll support it. So let's look when the market opens in 20 minutes whether the support falls through or if it actually holds. But yeah, definitely not good. So we've lost the.

Speaker 1: 9:36

You see that purple line there, guys, do you see that that purple line is the 150-day moving average line, which is sort of the line that investors tend to look at, at least the ones who know the rules. And if you don't know the rules, you know where you can learn the rules? Do you see that banner here on the screen? If you want to protect your gains from the misery that is ensuing and you also want to actually buy the beautiful breakouts and there have been some really, really nice breakouts the last couple of weeks then learn the rules. It's completely free, felix, friends at all slash, get free. It'll take you 15 minutes, probably less time than I've been rambling on here for Now.

Speaker 1: 10:14

L3 Harris was a great pick. How's that one doing? L3 Harris, lhx yeah, and look at that. That's going still pretty strong today, right? Not a major move there, down 0.4%. And that's also something I watch for, by the way. On weekdays you want to see who's got strength right, who's holding up.

Speaker 1: 10:33

But let's just be a bit more structured about this first. First of all, the thing to look at is when you look at the morning and you don't know what's going on. You don't watch the news because it's a load of political nonsense most of the time. Look at the VIX. The VIX is a mathematical representation of how scared the market is essentially. I mean it's above 20. Um, it's a little frightened, just a little. Just a little bit frightened, and it would like to keep the lights on at night, that sort of thing. It's at 24.9 but, more importantly, it's up 21.99 percent. That is a bigly move, um, a big league move even. Um. The trump fans always correct me on that one, and you're right. But just bigly sounds better, right. So why not take the piss when we can? So that's a.

Speaker 1: 11:19

That would be a huge gap up, a bigger gap up than the one we saw on april 3rd, which I believe was liberation day. So that doesn't bode well. Apple has probably properly S-I-T-ed the bed and is dropping pretty hard here 3%, which is massive for a company that size. I mean really massive. Were there warning signs? Yeah, there were warning signs. There were early warning signs. The earliest one I would count on would be well recent one, flattening out moving averages up here, breaking through the 150-day moving average here, failing to get up again, failing to get up again, failing to get up again, oh, yes, and don't forget about all the gaps down so you could have reasonably exited either up there or up here, and that would have been a very good thing to do because you would have more money. I don't own any Apple stock, although undoubtedly I own some through some index.