Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream from the south of France. You can see a little bit of blue there behind me and in the next few minutes I want you to walk away as the best informed investor out there, as a more confident investor, as somebody who actually knows what to do with today's Moody market, because Moody's has a downgrade in the US. I put a video on that yesterday, yesterday, if you didn't catch that. Basically, they're saying we think your debt's a little bit out of control and of course it's been out of control for the last 10 years, certainly for the last five years but they chose Friday evening to announce it for whatever reasons politics or not, I don't know, don't really care. I just take the facts and the market the way it's handed to me every day, and then I look for the big, beautiful, shiny opportunities. And then what do we do? I love all the chat here, guys. They'll chat about stops, and I really, really like that. But to talk about like adjusting your stops and loosening them or like buying back straight back in when your stops got hit, that's not the point of a stop, guys. So come back and refocus on the rules and let me share my screen with you so we can go straight into real value here. So this is what Bloomberg is saying out there. Bloomberg, as I call them.

Speaker 1: 1:14

Treasury's dollar fall as Moody's sharpens, focus on US debt, and what's it actually about is that sort of chart that they're showing you here, and I've got a slightly bigger version of that. This chart here is the interest rate. The market demands from the US government to hold 30-year US government debt, and this is a chart that goes back to I don't know what 2015 or something. It's too bright out here for me to see the number. So you can see we're like at the very top of that expectation range and that's not a good thing. That's the market basically saying we think you guys want a bit of a banana republic and we want a premium for it. So why is that a problem? Well, the US pays a trillion dollars in interest and the interest rates go higher. This is the interest rate. This is the market actually sets the interest rate, not the fed. Then the us to pay even more for that. But it's not just the us government that has to then pay more. You have to pay more for your car loan, for your mortgage, and if you're a business, you have to pay more to borrow to invest, and that does what?

Speaker 1: 2:18

Well, there's two things. It slows down economic growth, and why am I not on the screen? I'm sure you guys are missing me terribly on the screen. What happened here? Okay, hang on one second, I'll try and find myself again here we go there. I am Yay. So it slows down the economy. And secondly, it actually dampens the stock market.

Speaker 1: 2:42

Because if I can get 5% holding government bonds, it's kind of attractive for a lot of people. It's zero risk, allegedly, and it's a guaranteed 5%. Well, you buy AMD. There isn't zero risk, right? Maybe there is a higher potential upside, but there isn't zero risk. So it's not a good thing for the market.

Speaker 1: 3:01

Now, I don't think it's the end of the world, guys. I think this is a little bit of a blip. And then there are a couple of reasons that make me feel quite optimistic on that, and one is that Hassett just came out and said look, 15 countries are close to a trade deal 15, and that the bond market is going to come down as we get those deals in. So there's a second thing. Also, there is taxes, and I'll talk a little bit more detail about that later in the week, but they are putting together a tax deal which will cut taxes, which again will be good for US companies maybe not so good for the deficit and that'll be kind of an interesting one, but yeah, so I want you to understand, like in any market.

Speaker 1: 3:40

Let me ask you this If you knew what stocks to buy in any market, let me ask you this If you knew what stocks to buy in any market on a day like today or on a day like last Monday where the market was rallying, would that be useful to you? If it is put a you in the chat for useful and I know that you're actually paying attention and I also know that this is actually valuable for you, because that's always my intention to give you guys as much value as humanly possible. Um, it's a little bright out here to see my screen, so, okay, I'm seeing some use pouring in there, brilliant, okay. So what I'm going to do is um, I'm back in a place where it's a little bit less sunny on thursday, actually, it'll probably be sunny too but I will be sitting on the balcony, on the terrace, and I'm going to run for you a seminar where I'll teach you that. So I want to teach you how to pick great stocks, no matter what happens out there in the market, no matter what the noise is, and what that's done for me is it's helped me retire sooner, like way sooner, right.

Speaker 1: 4:40

So it's very nice to be in your early 40s and be retired. I know some people who've done it even sooner because they started sooner, and I know some people have done it much later because they started later. But you can always start now. That's always the best time to start. Well, yesterday probably was better, and it's really about having the same skill level by having the same rule book that the successful investors out there have and they're not wizards they like to pretend that they are, but they're generally not. They just know the rules. So I want you to walk away with the rules what do we buy, when do we buy it and when do we sell it, and how do we automate that so that we can set this up on a Sunday in like an hour and then forget about it.

Speaker 1: 5:17

I'm not doing anything today. I'm not doing anything all week probably. I usually don't do anything. Last week, I didn't do anything last week and we made like I don't know, 5% last week or something like that. It was a good week and even if the market goes down today, I lock in those profits because I've got stops in place. So I want you to get to that level where you have that confidence, where you have that ability. And it's really not about like, am I smart enough? It really is just about like, has somebody taught you the rules? Like I always say, play sports, um, and you don't know which direction to, like, kick the ball in or whatever. Well, you're gonna lose, aren't you? Because you don't know what the rules are. If you know the rules, you have a much, much better chance. So that's what I want to really um, get to you guys.

Speaker 1: 5:58

On thursday, um 10 am, new york time, felix friends of oxford webinar. You can sign up there, uh, directly, and let me show you a couple of key data points for today. And, by the way, the page you get to looks like that you just pop in your name and so, on that register, you get a free seat. Um, make sure you're on time, because only the first thousand people will be able to chat with me live. And that's not me being mean, that's just the technology isn't able to handle bigger me live, and that's not me being mean, that's just the technology isn't able to handle bigger groups and we have quite big groups usually. So we usually have a couple of thousand people in there. So make sure you guys not just sign up now while there's still seats available, but you actually show up on time or early so you're one of those people. You can actually chat with me.

Speaker 1: 6:40

Now the S&P here. There's a SP out with me. Now the S&P here. This is SPY, which trades pre-market, and you can see that little blue dotted line here, right, and what do you see? Well, you see that we're a little bit below Friday's trading range, just a little bit. I mean, it's not the end of the world, it's like percentage point down. So from my point of view, I looked at the last time the US got downgraded, the market dropped like 10%, not in a day, but over the period. So a 1% reaction on day one is pretty good. It's basically where we were on Thursday. So this isn't really the market's kind of going. You were the last agency who was just late to the party. We just don't really care that much. And, quite frankly, rating agencies I mean dodgy as they come right. So not too worried about that.

Speaker 1: 7:27

Now, what about tech stocks? Well, tech stocks dropped much harder on the last downgrade and this morning they're down 1.4% Again. Not the end of the world, although it does look like a little bit of a gap down. You see that between the bottom of that candle there and where we are right now, the dotted line is a little bit of a drawdown. So what about?

Speaker 1: 7:46

What would I watch out for? Well, what I'm watching out for is are we going to bounce off this 150 day moving average line there, which is that one? That's the let me get a pen kingdom for a pen? Here is a pen, so that's that's the 150 day moving average line, and you can turn those on down here. This is in trade vision. There's a link. So that's that's the 150 day moving average line, and you can turn those on down here. This is in trade vision. There's a link down below the trade vision as well, the description. So if we bounce off that, it's actually a good thing. It'll actually make the rally stronger. But if we break below that because we get a bunch of bad news items, say the you know the tax cuts are not happening, or whatever, then we go lower and then we are going to retest some lower lows. So watch out for that. So I think there's some nice and I'm an obvious, an optimist at the moment.

Speaker 1: 8:36

The way I look at this is like a nice opportunity to load up on some of the stocks that we like a little bit cheaper on the pullbacks, because there are quite a lot of stocks that we like that are currently like you know, they're pretty extended. So why don't we wait for the dip? And you know some of our tech favorites, like a Palantir or something. You know it was at 130. Now it's at 124. Well, isn't that better? Like if I said to you come have lunch with me, but today it isn't $100. Today it's 70 dollars, would you be happier? You'd be happier, right. So pretty much anything in the world you buy that's cheaper you'd be happier with. But stocks, for some reason they're not. So you just want to make sure it doesn't drop too hard, because then the direction changes and there are examples for that, like paypal, for example, is one that I would.

Speaker 1: 9:22

You know that was weak before we got into this, right. So it's like it's collapsing when the market's rallying. There's some real weakness in there. So that's something that I'm medium term certainly very bearish on. Long term it's still a great company, but medium term it really isn't.

Speaker 1: 9:39

David's putting in there Aiva, which has been one of our absolutely beautiful runners. It's like 130% up or something. And, oh my God, it's up some more. Isn't that nice? So sometimes you pick these winners, and that's also why we pick a relatively large number of stocks. But we're now up what 132% or something like that, and that's flying while the market's tanking, which is also a real sign of strength. You're going against the momentum and the volume down here is tremendous. So am I buying more right now? No, I feel we're getting a little extended. So I did buy a bit more like in this period here because volume was picking up.

Speaker 1: 10:16

But yeah, these are the kind of winners, obviously, that we look for. And how do we find it? It's what I teach you on Thursday. It's literally like that. That's as simple as that, pretty much Looking for three pieces of rules and once they all align, we don't have to watch the chart. We just set it up in advance on a Sunday and if those things come true, then we buy automatically and then automatically we make a lot of money and if we're wrong then nothing happens, and if it goes up and then it goes down, we lose a little bit of money. So I'll give you an example.

Speaker 1: 10:48

I think on the weekend I looked at one of my portfolios that I have and over the last two weeks I realized and this is kind of, I think, an important mindset piece, let me write this down for you this portfolio lost $4,000 realized losses. You might be thinking, oh my God, felix, what the heck are you doing? But you know what it's also done it's generated $40,000 of unrealized gains. What does that mean? These positions are still open because we don't cut our winners early. We only cut our winners when they start to become losers. So the net effect is plus $36,000. Now that would be risky if you didn't have automated risk management, because the $36,000 could go away, and now you've only got losses left right. But for me that's a beautiful setup. So you know, one-tenth of my positions lost money and I created, you know, 90% gain, essentially compared to the losses. So that's a really, really nice setup and that's exactly what we look for. But you need to understand that to make money you must lose some money, and it's actually, the only way to do that is to take those losses early and to let the winners run. And Naeva, here is a beautiful example of something that's just making us a heck of a lot of money. Right?

Speaker 1: 12:18

Trade Vision does it support European stocks yet? No, not yet, not yet. We're just discussing that at the moment. To be honest with you, I know you guys, some of you want British and European stocks in there. We haven't so far. 90% of the money is in the US, but obviously, as the European community grows, we are not against it. We're looking into it at the moment for data and to make sure that's a fair spend. Essentially, the way I always see it with Trade Vision is that we do it for the community and if we spend money on something it needs to like benefit kind of everybody. So let's have a look at what the costs are and what the options are for that.

Speaker 1: 12:54

But, yeah, it's something I'd like to do. Um, so it's definitely on this. Thanks very much. Etfs as well. Yeah, that's definitely also on the list. Uh, swedish? Well, yes, you guys are. We treat you as Europeans, if that's okay with you. Thanks for the white screen Easier to read. I know especially. Look. I'm actually so happy the guys put that out, because I've been sitting on a beach and on a boat and on my little garden here and I can't see the black screen. I literally can't see it. It's just too bright, whereas this I can actually see.

Speaker 1: 13:23

Let me give you one more piece of, like, high value information the VIX right, the thing I look for every day and again, I absolutely love that. Who here actually looks at the VIX? Put a V or write VIX in the chat. If you actually look at the VIX and it means I've infected you. It's something that really only the institutional guys look at, options traders look at.

Speaker 1: 13:47

But it's just such a beautiful indicator that everybody might just want to have a look at at the beginning of the week and go, hey, is there a lot of panic out there? Is there a lot of fear out there? What's going on? And it's up 12% today. That's pretty significant. So that's something that might make you want to like think about. Like, how much risk are you willing to take on this week and when it jumps significantly, loving all the Vs there. Guys, that's amazing. We're probably the only community in the world where a couple of hundred people or even thousands of people are willing to put their hand up and go. I'm a bit weird. I look at the VIX in the mornings. So I love you for that, guys, because it means you're learning Amazing. But yeah, because it means you're learning Amazing. But yeah, when it pops up 12% in the morning, like that's a pretty big pop. Right, it's still below 20, which is important. So we haven't moved into like complete panic, freak out fear. But 12% up is significant enough to pay attention to. So what does that mean?

Speaker 1: 14:46

Well, for me, the first thing would always be well, maybe we make our positions a little smaller that we set up this week. That could be one way of dealing with it. Right, there are other ways of dealing with it, but I've already taken care of all the risks in terms of stop losses. So for me, there are kind of levels to it. I think last week was probably also a good time to buy it. I was thinking about it I didn't in the end actually, but clearly it would have been a good opportunity this morning.

Speaker 1: 15:12

But if you zoom in a little bit and then watch it during the day, it has actually come down, because this is something that trades way earlier than the stock market. Right, the market's already open on the VIX futures and it's actually come down a fair bit already. So we were all the way up here. We've come down 1.5%. We're still below that 150-day moving average line there, which is good. Just keep an eye on it. If it pops above 20, the market's going to get a bit more antsy and what it essentially measures is how many people are buying, put options and sort of how many people are panicking buying insurance today. Right, uh, up the saints has just started to go through your six hour investing course video. Uh, long way to go.

Speaker 1: 15:59

Thanks for sharing all your knowledge, insights, brilliant. And there is a. There is a playlist on the channel which is called um, something like felix's courses or something like Felix's Courses or something like that, and I think there are like two or three full-length course programs on there. They're completely free. Like I always say, we give away 90% of the stuff we do here for free also, and Thursday I'm running a live webinar for you guys where I'll teach you a tremendous amount, and I think we all deserve it.

Speaker 1: 16:24

And I think the real fun is, you know, I walk around, I meet people like where was I the other day I landed and I like spotted someone on, like day one. Oh yeah, I just got back into Monaco and literally within yeah, actually I was in a cafe. I walked to the bathroom, door opens, the guy comes out and goes Felix, which is amazing, and if you do ever see me, do say hello. I really appreciate it and he was doing very well and it's amazing. So that's for me, the whole reason for doing this is just to get that satisfaction and see that joy and see those smiles. So keep learning, keep absorbing all the stuff we do and join me on Thursday, felixfrenzelogcom. You're going to get a lot more value there than ever.

Speaker 1: 17:12

Palantir, all right, sure, we can have a look at some of our favorite tech stocks here and you have a bit of a look there. So, palantir, I think we just actually had a look at it. It was just coming down a little bit. So the whole market is going to pull down a little bit. The stuff that's going to pull down the most this is 4% down this morning is stuff that's like innovation sort of stuff. Right, high risk ARK's down 3% this morning, for example, and you kind of expect that. And all the growth stocks get hit because bond prices essentially or bond yields rather will go up. So interest rates basically go up because Moody's downgrades the US, so money gets more expensive and therefore, well, stocks become a little bit less appealing because we could make 5% just buying US treasuries, which are apparently risk-free. So everything is down a little bit less appealing because we could make 5% just buying US treasuries, which are apparently risk-free. So everything is down a little bit here, and that's okay. And I think, if we pick it nicely, there are some really nice opportunities here today to nibble on something a little bit better. I see Zim in the chat there and that's coming up quite nicely, coming up quite nicely. If you collected the 30% dividend here, you'd be up 20% just on that. It's still below the 150, though, so I never bought it because it didn't match my rules, but it's certainly improving pretty significantly.

Speaker 1: 18:36

Are you going to the Grand Prix? I'm not, actually this year. No, no, I'm not. We're going to shoot off before it happens. We had a lot of fun here, but it's a nice thing to do actually. The Grand Prix it's a really nice atmosphere there in Monaco. I was driving through it. Yes, I drove through the track yesterday, which is a really fun thing to do. Just have to not speed too badly because there's police everywhere in Mon. How about united health, unh? So they got hit obviously very hard, threatened with a criminal investigation or something.

Speaker 1: 19:08

The two of the insiders, I think cfo and ceo or something. I could be wrong on that. They bought some shares, I think I know 25 million worth or something like that. Uh, check the numbers. I'm not quite exactly sure on those and that's giving the stock a little bit of confidence here. That maybe we are oversold, no idea.

Speaker 1: 19:22

To be honest with you, I'm not a bottom fisher. I have rules and I don't have rules that say something's collapsing three gaps down, everybody's sold below all moving average. Lines Must be cheap. Now. No, I didn't know that it could be that it's going to drop to zero. I'm not saying it will, but it could. So at this point the likelihood that it's going to go down is much greater than it's going to go up.

Speaker 1: 19:47

So I don't buy stuff like that. I just don't care about the latest news or missing the opportunity. But what if it doubles? Wouldn't it be amazing? Yeah, I really don't care, because we can make a lot of money based on rules and you know, our Ava stocks up 130% right now, for example, and you might think that's luck. Well, if you saw my portfolio, then I'm very, very lucky. Luck only gets you so far. So luck is essentially and luck's a beautiful thing. But luck is essentially and luck's a beautiful thing, but luck is essentially well. Market goes up.

Speaker 1: 20:19

I happen to be in the right sector. I'm making money. I'd rather be like I'm buying the things that the institutions are buying, uh, based on the same rules institutions use, and that means I can make money even if the market goes down, and to me that's the funnest. Actually, the market's crappy say this is a crappy week and I don't know it will be. I mean, maybe the tax news will get us out there or the tariff news will get us out of this little sell-off here on a Monday. But if it's a crummy week and I make money, I'm way happier than last week where everybody made money, and I probably made a little bit more money than everybody. I'm like okay, it's kind of easy. It's kind of like it wasn't that hard. It could have bought almost anything last week and even made money. But it's weeks like this where I'm like well, this is actually where the system kicks in. This is actually where the features kick in. This is really where we make our edge.

Speaker 1: 21:08

So you and Alana, come and join me Thursday 10 am, literally right after my live stream on thursday, we're going to pop into our private webinar channel, um felix friendsorg webinar, so grab yourself a seat there. You see any other questions we got in here? Um tony's saying, you're saying there's always opportunity, so never stress any stock, correct, doesn't matter what you make money with, there's always, I mean. But even in like terrible weeks we still find like a dozen opportunities, and most weeks we probably find 30 opportunities. So there really isn't isn't a limit on it and I don't have to make my money with the latest thing, which is tesla or whatever.

Speaker 1: 21:51

Or you know, okay, archer is actually that's actually on on my list this week because it looks beautiful. That's a really lovely run up. Get a little bit of a pullback here. I like a good pullback too, because we were quite overextended so we might be able to get some ACHR a little bit cheaper here. So, yeah, it looks good. So I have to sort of crouch forward to read the screen, because it's a little bit. It's a little bit. It's a little bit dark or bright here, depending on how you look at that. I don't like tesla.

Speaker 1: 22:19

You see, I also don't think, care about things like that. I, I just don't care really about, like, whether I like a stock or not, mostly. Um, there are certain things that maybe are outside your risk parameters and maybe that's foreign stocks, because you think they're affected by stuff. Um, there's certain sectors that I try to stay away from, but generally speaking, I don't care about the stock. It's like I don't really care what they make. I don't really care what they do. Like you know, ieva is like what is it? What do they make? Like tires or something? Some sort of trucking, some boring. I have no idea. What does IEVA make? I have no idea. Up 130%? I honestly couldn't tell you what they do. Auto, tires, trucks. Sounds exciting, doesn't it? Well, if it's up 130%, it's exciting for me, but that doesn't mean I'm going to love the stock. I probably won't read the earnings report. I just don't care, because all I do is move my stop up and when it starts coming down, well, it'll sell for like 100% plus profit. So we're happy with those kind of setups Philip Morris is doing well.

Speaker 1: 23:22

Actually, I was talking about that yesterday with a friend, about how evil tobacco is and how much money it's making, and I mean you see a lot of people in Europe vaping these stupid things that kill you, and it's just like tobacco has managed to rebrand itself into a new product. It's bizarre. They've just done such a good job. Really Not very ethical. But yeah, that's a lovely stock, that's a lovely one there. I don't know what else we've got in here. Tesla, yeah, ba.

Speaker 1: 24:10

So, yeah, we were looking at some defense stocks and I mean they've done well, right, I mean here is a shitty company, right. Terrible management, cost overruns, slate on everything you know lose tires, doors, pilots, whatever. And um, doesn't matter. No, it doesn't matter because the market basically said we like it and the market basically said that here because we exceeded these highs here and therefore we triggered that buy. And then look at the volume, institutions are buying it. So you just got to follow like the crumbs, right.

Speaker 1: 24:41

The blackstone ceos gave an interview the other day and they asked him like how do you spot an opportunity? And he said the market leaves crumbs and it's like little crumbs on a black dress. You see them and you see one and you're like, interesting. And you see two, and you go I should look into this. And you see three, let's fucking go. He didn't say that, but you get the idea.

Speaker 1: 25:01

So that's what we do. We just look for those patterns. We look at for those, do we trigger those rules? And then everybody looks at the same thing. I mean, how much money does blackstone, you know, manage? Like I don't know a lot, so a little bit more than me. So why wouldn't I use the same framework and rules and patterns those guys use? So I'm just piggybacking on on the institutions, essentially, and that's what every successful investor and every successful trader has done for the last 50 years. Um, yet most of us think, oh, we need to just like fall in love with a tesla stock or volunteer or archer, whatever the latest thing is, and that's how we're gonna to make our money. Maybe you will, because maybe it's got the right pattern. But if you don't know what the pattern is, then it's just like the casino. Some friends of mine went to the Monaco Casino on the weekend. That's not a place where you make money. It's rigged against you. The market, on the other hand, is exactly the opposite. I believe you can be the house.