Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this live stream. From the outside, I hope the birds don't make too much of a racket, but I want to walk you through five super important things that are happening today. One is understand why people have never been more bearish while things are looking somewhat up, and I want you to ask yourself whether you're watching the three key stocks that Wall Street is watching. I'll show you what those are in a moment, but, of course, talk Palantir, himso, fi, tesla and Nvidia, because I put that in the title and I'll show you what the secret trigger is to this mini rally we're in right now. And, of course, we're going to talk about tariffs because bigly announcements once again from White House and co Chinese-US meeting happening over the weekend, and does that mean we should maybe be a little bit more careful today and maybe get out of some things before the end of the weekend, beginning of the weekend, and then I also want to give you my plan for today and for next week. So you are perfectly, wonderfully, marvelously set up for the week ahead to make a bucket load of money. Now, if you can hear and see me, perfectly, put a, put a one in the chat. I'd love to see it and, yeah, it says excellent connection. That should be a. That should be a good thing. Okay, matt, I appreciate the ones, because my concurrent viewer count just got frozen, which worried me slightly. It's just jumping up. It's jumping up OK slight lag there from the folks at Google, you know, saving every penny.

Speaker 1: 1:32

So why have people never been this bearish? This is there is something called the. Look at like how many people are bearish and bullish, bullish. It's a chart and right now it's at this insane level up here, which means that people have been super, super bearish for 11 weeks. I'm slightly wondering whether they're only asking Democrats, and that might have something to do with it, but we've never seen this. We've literally never, ever seen this, ever, not since the 1990s. We were bearish there for about seven weeks. So what the heck's going on there? Well, it's essentially uncertainty, and trump has had the capacity to create. You can't see the screen. Sorry about that. There is the screen. Yeah, here it is. So let me. Let me show you that again. And um, so we're up.

Speaker 1: 2:24

That is our current 11 weeks of trumpishness, of just the bears winning. The last time we had that, well, we had seven weeks in 1990. We've never had 11 weeks before, at least not on the record. So what's it all about? And it's largely about just the uncertainty that tariffs are creating. But we just had good earnings in right. We got the first trade deal with the UK, which is, you know, self-proclaimed important country, and then we now have meetings with the Chinese. Trump just posted that there are other deals he expects to announce shortly, and that's all quite good, isn't it? So what the heck's all behind it?

Speaker 1: 3:08

Well, there's a couple of things we need to look at to get ourselves to a better informed level. And the first thing is here and I'm using a white. I'm taking advantage of the new white theme in Trade Vision here because it's a little easier on my eyes when I'm outside. I hope that's all right with you, chaps. Um, what's going on there? There we go. So the first thing you look at is the is the vix? The vix is the fear index. The higher it is, the worse the world sits from the perspective of wall street. So, yeah, so right now we're at 22 and if you focus a little bit on that, that's like pretty good, right, pretty good. I mean, we were like at monstrous levels at one point up here. So what am I gunning for? I'm hoping for below 20. Now, my annotations were done in white, which isn't that helpful, but you see what I'm talking about. So it's good. The trend is definitely positive in the sense that we actually want this thing to fall, but we're still significantly above the longer term moving average line. So we'd still like to go back to 20, but it's heading in the right direction. It gives us some room for optimism.

Speaker 1: 4:18

And then, secondly, I look at just two more charts with you, and literally understanding these three will put you at a level of hedge fund manager today, like top of 99% of people out there. And let me know if this lands for you, if this makes some sense. So the NASDAQ had a pretty good day yesterday, actually reasonable, right. It sort of jumped from the green levels down here to the red levels up there and you'd think, well, that's pretty good, isn't it? It's a nice green day, that's very, very bullish and all of that.

Speaker 1: 4:51

But there is one little fly in the ointment, and that is the line I'm pointing to here. Let me take a different color. I'm going to draw it in blue for you. It's a little easier to see. That is the 200-day moving average line, that one I'm pointing to there. And what did we do yesterday? Well, we hit our head at it. We did the same thing about five days ago here also hit our head at it.

Speaker 1: 5:17

So the key thing I'm watching out for today and also going into Monday is are we going to break through that? Are we going to close above the 200? Yippity-dee-yah, and you can start singing and chanting and doing all the wonderful things you want to do to celebrate, but if we don't, then this is the very, very likely lid on the party for some time to come. So it's a really, really important point that we've got to. And if you look at the S&P, it's a similar situation, except we're even a little bit lower. So we're a little bit lower here.

Speaker 1: 5:55

The 200 day moving average line is this one. Here and again, you need to break through that for this value to continue. And maybe you think it's just a funny line on the chart, and that's okay. I used to think that. But it's a funny line on the chart that everybody on wall street and in chicago is watching, like every single investor, every single, every single fund, every single hedge fund. Everybody is talking about these lines and once you understand the importance of that, you see where they are.

Speaker 1: 6:22

This is not the moment to go 100% bullish in Now. I bought a lot of stocks this week. A lot of them have gone up tremendously nicely. But if we don't go above the 200, and if we don't see higher highs and higher closes on those, then I'm going to tighten my stop losses significantly, because the most likely move then is to go down again. And maybe you think I'm a long-term investor. This doesn't matter to me and that's a nice, luxurious way of looking at it, but I think it still matters to you because I think the strategy is still the same. It is about making the most money with the least amount of effort involved, right? So okay, if you just buy the index, fine. But if you're buying individual stocks, you are more than just an investor, my friend. You're actually actively managing your money and you're going to want to really watch that, because that's really what it's all about.

Speaker 1: 7:15

So what do you then go and buy today or tomorrow? Well, I'll actually put a video later on a couple of other things, but before you buy anything, you need to understand these foundational rules that the whole system relies upon. You're basically joining some sort of sporting activity. That's what you're doing here, and if you don't know what the rules are, well, guess what the guys with the rules win. Right? It's like you're playing cards. Anybody play cards here, right? If you don't know the rules, how do you expect to win? You're just randomly throwing things out there, randomly holding onto cards. That's pretty much what most investors do, what most investors do.

Speaker 1: 7:51

I want to change that for you. Actually, motivated by something else, I'm seeing an enormous opportunity in the market right now, like the sort of thing we haven't seen for about 25 years. So we get about two shots of those in a lifetime, generally speaking, and I want to walk you through that and I want to break that down for you. But at the same time, I want to give you the rules that allows you to break that down for yourself. That allows you to select good stocks yourself, allows you to understand where to buy and allows you to understand where to sell.

Speaker 1: 8:18

It's quite a lot of stuff we want to pack in there, and that's why we're doing this on Saturday 11 am, new York time live, not here, but at felixfrenzelogcom slash webinar. There is a link over there and you can grab yourself a seat for that. I'll put it in the chat for you here as well, so you can just click on that and we'll go for about an hour and a half, maybe two hours, and I do it from this lovely area here in where I am hiding right now in the south of france, and, um, it actually looks a little bit more friendly. This screen looks a little grayish, doesn't it? It's actually quite nice and blue. So we're going to head out after this and enjoy the outdoors and have dinner outside and that sort of thing. But, yeah, seriously, if you don't know what the rules are and if those squiggly lines that I showed you were just a teeny, tiny bit confusing to you and it's completely fine to admit that then come and join me on Saturday and I will walk you through how we do what we do and what the institutional guys are doing. Walk you through how we do what we do and what the institutional guys are doing.

Speaker 1: 9:18

Um, now, this is one of the key reasons the stocks have rallied so nicely and we've had a you know I'm talking about pretty significant moves here. Say, on the s&p, we're up this. Where's my little measurer here? The last week or so. We're up 3.5%. That's pretty significant. On the NASDAQ we're up. Where was Monday? Well, actually we're not up that much, but we're still up 1.2%. Individual stocks obviously much more so.

Speaker 1: 9:52

And there are two factors here that have helped this go up. One is and this is what Citibank's putting out here he's babysitting Winston and cats in Hong Kong. Winston has a menagerie of nannies who look after him. He always does. He's a very lucky hound. I get videos every day. I see what he's up to and I see tracking of his hiking and all that sort of stuff. So he's having a good time, although I do miss him. I don't really like to. He doesn't like long-haul flights. Really he doesn't really enjoy. He doesn't really like flights full stop. Really he kind of is confused by it. I think. I think explaining to okay, two factors here that are making this rally go up.

Speaker 1: 10:39

I often talk to you about CTAs, algophants, computers, and the city is saying they're near short cover triggers and so if we go on SPX up to 5,708 futures, then they're going to be unleashing horse buying. They have to cover their shorts. We've also seen significant short coverings over the last couple of days on a lot of stocks, so this could mean we might get $65 billion in buying if the S&P goes up, and if the S&P is flat, we should get about $2.5 billion a day. So that's pretty supportive, right. So the world isn't about to end here because we've got some computer money running in. I miss Winston News the best. Yes, same here. So what's the second story to this then? Well, I just mentioned short, short covers. So a lot of the hedge funds and all the funds were short, and now, as the market's recovering, well, they've got no choice but to recover and close those positions and therefore go gung ho.

Speaker 1: 11:46

Now I want to talk about tariffs, but I think let's talk briefly about favorite tech stocks out here. Scott Squeeze, indeed. So what are you seeing on Palantir? You're seeing that beautiful second chance here, right, really really nice candle there today, flat, which is okay 0.01%. The market is just a bit spooked by what Donald Trump just posted and I'll explain that in a second. But this is a pretty good setup for a stock that drops to see immediately afterwards a nice rally, pretty big volume here. So this is a nice constructive setup. And just look, stocks don't go up in straight lines, right, hims and hers similar, actually, even better. Really. It just continues to go up volume pretty strong there. Yesterday was kind of nothing really, but today we're down three percent. That's uh, notable, but not that significant comparing how much we've gone up by. So these setups still look pretty good.

Speaker 1: 12:42

Nvidia, well, is it the end of the semiconductor drought? No, I don't think so quite yet. I put a video out on AMD yesterday and the comments are testament to the fact that many people watch three minutes of a video and they don't really watch the whole thing. And it's kind of hard to teach you because I don't know what three minutes you're going to watch. So what I'm saying to you is don't judge the book by its cover, because it could be very expensive for you. Watch that video to the end. I told you at the beginning you're going to watch this till the end, otherwise you're going to lose money. I don't say that stuff to hook you. I don't say that stuff to make you watch for longer. I say that stuff because I mean it. Okay. So just want to be really really clear on that.

Speaker 1: 13:24

Now, nvidia, nice little pop out here, absolutely Really. I think the question is just going to be are we going to be making higher highs here, or are we going to pull in sideways again Because we've had a few attempts to break out and they haven't really. You know, go back a little bit here. Right, there was that one, there was this one, there was this one and now there's this one. It doesn't mean this is necessarily going to be the one that succeeds. It's still too early to buy semis, in my humble opinion.

Speaker 1: 13:49

What about fintech? Well, improving from SoFi, where, as we speak, above that pink line there, which is the 150-day moving average line, where it's still falling shorter-term moving average lines, volume is still flat. So I still expect us to see a lot of resistance here. I don't see this going straight up. What about Tesla? Again, nothing, absolutely nothing. And I wish I could tell you something different. I love the stock, but that doesn't get in the way of me making money. So this thing is now bounced off the 200-day moving average line three, four times. So if they do it again, that isn't brilliant. So it's in a consolidation sideways phase. Who knows whether the Austin taxi thing will figure that out and need some volume. Scott, absolutely, absolutely.