Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix and good morning to you. In the next few minutes, I'm going to walk you through how one stock just tanked the stock market. Number two, why the job shock may be a blessing. Number three, why the GDP number those recession fears are fake news, seriously. And then I'm going to show you how you actually spot buys in this falling market. Where is the opportunity in this dip and why it might pay to be somewhat bearish, at least in some sectors. We look at whether stocks like HIMSS are still a buy here. Of course, we look at SoFi, palantir, nvidia and all the other favorite tech stocks out there. That's really my mission over the next few minutes. And, of course, winston, to be as calm and happy as that guy back here. Right, winston, he's just meditating on the market this morning, so let me share my screen with you and we'll get straight into it. We are as they say in France. We're going to walk through this One how OneStock tanked the market. The job shock here. The GDP numbers really understand them. Like mainstream media is telling you complete nonsense. I want to see you in the chat here already. People are buying the mainstream media noise. You won't be in a couple of minutes. How do we spot good stocks here, why it might pay to be bearish. We look at stocks like HIMSS, sofi, palantir and everything else that you want me to know. Put your questions in the chat. If you would find those seven things useful. Put a seven in the chat and I know that you're actually absorbing this. You're getting value out of this and we'll put more content out just like it.

Speaker 1: 1:31

My goal is always for these mornings to be a bit like the sort of briefing you'd get if you were working inside an investment bank. They have morning meetings 7 am. Everyone sits in a room and somebody older and wiser, who's done the research, tells us what's going on, or another office that was actually awake on the other side of the world and is therefore catching us up. That's usually what happens and that's always my goal for you here. So you walk away from this better informed and better skilled and better understanding of the market than everybody else there. Who's the naughty one who put a 69 in the chat? You are very naughty.

Speaker 1: 2:03

All right, then let's jump straight into it. So, first of all, what the heck happened? Even before the GDP numbers came in? Well, smci made an unusual announcement saying earnings are out for a little while about a week but we're revising down our guidance. So previously they wanted to make net sales of about 5 to 6 billion. Now it's only four and a half and a bit, and they wanted basically profit per share to be in the 46 to 62 range. Now it's 29 to 31. That, of course, causes some serious pain and they're pretty disappointing numbers from SMCI here.

Speaker 1: 2:46

This is what Goldman Sachs is going to say about it the bankers with a big fuzzy heart. They just keep kittens in the office. They run rescue sanctuaries. You know they're very kind people. I'm sure there are some lovely people in Goldman Sachs. Actually, one of my mentors is from Goldman Sachs. He's a great guy. So he's saying SMCI should trade lower on the negative pre-announcement, which includes a revenue miss, why Higher inventory is reserved on old products, and they're basically saying there are decision delays and margin pressures. So their big customers are going we might just do this a quarter later and can you make it cheaper, and that's, of course, not a good sign for the sector. It's getting more competitive in the chip sector and, if you've been paying attention, I've been saying for at least two or three weeks stay away from semiconductor stocks. Right, and hopefully some of you have looked into that a bit more. So this is the Goldman Sachs rating here. It's now a sell. They're saying run, run, run, run, run. They think it's going to go down another 25%. So semiconductors, even though they had a pretty impressive rally the last six days, are definitely not something we want to be buying right now.

Speaker 1: 3:57

Now let me show you a very quick stock shot Now. This is the pre-market loveliness here this morning. But if you look at SOX, which is the semiconductor sector, what do you see here? Well, you see a pretty sweet little rally up here, right, pretty impressive. Especially the last six days were very impressive and nothing goes up in a straight line. So it's going down a little bit. It's not the end of the world. It's actually doing reasonably well today, given the SMCI news there and what just came out.

Speaker 1: 4:26

So definitely not a buy for the reasons that a lot of you who watched the masterclass are already understanding. Right, how many fails can you see on this chart here? Well, there is that fail. There is this fail. There is that fail. Yesterday's candle was a big fail. I don't know what happened to my volume here. Anybody know what happened to my volume here. Anybody know what happened to my volume? Somebody ate my volume. I'll hit the refresh button. Maybe it'll come back. So yeah, big warning, bigly warning, even on semiconductors, my friends.

Speaker 1: 4:56

Now the second thing I wanted to walk you through was the job shock. And what is the job shock? And what is the job shock? Well, first of all, yes, go and learn so you actually know what to buy, seriously, before you buy a single stock today or this week. If you would just give yourself 15 minutes and actually learn the rules of the most successful investors in the world follow.

Speaker 1: 5:18

I didn't make them up, no, I learned them from my mentors, who'd learned them from their mentors, and they go back to about the 1970s, the late 1970s, and people really started to figure out how to make money in the stock market properly. And you can learn. They're free, and one of the things they'll do for you is you will. This is my, this is my promise to you. You will never, ever lose money bigly again. Why? Because it's avoidable. Those 30, 40, 50, 60, 70% losses that you've been accumulating over time, because you had conviction they're avoidable. And the professional investors don't have those. And you don't have to have them either. Winston doesn't have them. That's why he sleeps so sweetly. Right there he is. He just opened his eyes because I said his name. Winston doesn't have them. That's why he sleeps so sweetly. Right there he is. He just opened his eyes because I said his name, winston. There we go See it works.

Speaker 1: 6:14

Now, while you do that and let me know honestly, if you are going to go and watch the little masterclass here at phoenixfriendsorggetfree, just put an M in the chat and Winston will pay attention. Won't you Winston there? Attention, it won't you. Winston there is stretching out quite nicely and he's like sighing because you haven't watched it yet. Put, put an m in the chat and I know that you're actually gonna watch it. Um, you're gonna get sick of winning so much.

Speaker 1: 6:34

Absolutely now jobs data right, um of winning, I forget. Can we get to that in a second um? Adp, which is a private company. By the way, adp, which I actually own, shares in that um at least I think I do. That puts out jobs data. Now, you can't fake the private sector data as much as the public sector data. So that's why I like looking at the adp data there and look at all the m's there moonlight and ryan and charles and badger and steppen and boster and empire and scott and mike and theresa and moonlight and alexander and slew and moreger and Steppen and Boster and Empire and Scott and Mike and Teresa and Moonlight and Alexander and Slough and more Mikes and more Teresas and more Jameses. Brilliant guys, ball's slower there as well.

Speaker 1: 7:15

Keep learning, guys. That's really what this is all about. It's all about putting skills between the ears. It's not some sort of magic thing that you get good at. You just have to be given the rules. Like any, any game you play, basically, you're going to lose if you don't know the rules. Like, try playing football. If you don't know which direction to run it right Won't work very well Right. Or baseball, and you're like why are they all running around on a circle Right? If you don't understand it, you're definitely going to lose. So learn the rules.

Speaker 1: 7:43

So ADP has just put out their jobs data and it's not exactly bigly. It's very low. It's the lowest we've had since the July 2024 dip and it's sort of screaming. Well, the economy might be slowing to a halt. More to that, and that is let me show you. Let me show you, here we go in.

Speaker 1: 8:08

If you go into trade vision, which is the platform we built, and get yourself a free trial to that android app just out as well. Android and ios app are now out for trade vision. Just search for it and look for that big, bright yellow, shiny logo that we have. Can you see that logo here? That's, that's the one. That's that's our trade vision uh app there. And if you subscribe on the website tradevisionio, you get the apps for free, by the way, and I think that works out cheaper than paying Apple their 30% toll. So, please sign up on tradevisionio rather than in the app store. You can, of course, if you want to, but I think it comes in cheaper for you guys want to, but I think it comes in cheaper for you guys.

Speaker 1: 8:48

And so what have we got? Well, look, we have the adp jobs data here. Right, horrible numbers 85 000 less than expected. But is it horrible? Is it actually horrible? Think that through. What does it mean if the economy is slowing down? Isn't there somebody in the federal reserve sort of swigging whiskey or something, probably sherry? Actually knowing Jerome the Powell, and isn't he saying that he would only cut rates if the market, the jobs market, is going to slow down? I think that's what he's saying, right? So let me show you. We'll jump through this chart for a second. These are rate cut expectations. We're now at four rate cuts for the year. Now that might go a little higher today. I'm going to look at that live data in a second as well, but that's the number I'm watching. That's a big one to watch.

Speaker 1: 9:41

Now, going back to more data, what else have we got? Well, everyone's freaking out about this. Gdp growth rate came in at minus 0.3 percent. Recession panic, right, that kind of thing, um bollocks. All right, read below the headline, because obviously mainstream media um doesn't know how to read beneath the headline. But we're expecting that to come in at about a half a percent plus. It came in at negative 0.3. Now here is a lesson in data fudging.

Speaker 1: 10:20

Okay, so this bar here on the right isn't some sort of LGBTQ sort of parade flag, although it looks a little bit like it. It identifies itself as a recession, but it isn't one. Let's face it, right. If it's got a penis, it's not a. You know what I'm saying. Anyway, I'm digressing slightly.

Speaker 1: 10:39

One of the things that goes into GDP data is this it's exports minus imports. So when imports go up, gdp goes down. Now could you think of a reason why American companies have been importing this quarter like never before? Because somebody went into the White House and said we're going to put hundreds of percents of tariffs on everything. So if you're an importer, you're thinking, well, let's stock up, right?

Speaker 1: 11:13

Somebody was on here yesterday who said I'm glad you're getting some smiles there. No one's going mad yet on the you know agenda confused crowd. Literally, this is. Should I say this? I probably shouldn't say this. Right, I shouldn't say this. No, I shouldn't say this. I'll probably get banned. I won't say this. It's a funny YouTube-related story. Maybe you'll get out of me a little later. Someone said yesterday that they were in Costco and apparently not just the shelves are full of stuff, but the aisles are full of stuff, and that's in the shops, it's not in their warehouses. So obviously companies are stocking up on stuff to make sure they've got the goods at lower costs. So that's why we are in a recession technically.

Speaker 1: 11:52

The second part and this is really curious and curiouser this is Doge at work, and maybe you hate the whole Doge thing, maybe you think Elon is a Nazi and maybe you're a little bit retarded or just slow, but ultimately that's a reference to the Elon being a nazi. It's okay if you don't like doge. Maybe you like big government and lots of wasteful spending. That's all okay. But the the nazi bit is just moronic. Now that little orange bit down there, that is government expenditure falling, and that's a difficult concept to comprehend for most people nowadays. It means the government is spending less money, right, which is what the whole Doge thing is doing.

Speaker 1: 12:39

So not to say I'm supposed to say retarded anymore. But what is it Special? What's the new word Special? It's a sort of common sense challenged. Is that what we call them now? Just nutters?

Speaker 1: 12:54

I had a nutter yesterday this morning in the comments. What was he saying? Oh yeah, this was a. So I put out a six hour investing course, the full bloody thing. I used to sell that thing for $1,500 or something and I decided I think everybody should have access to it. I gave it for free, you give it for free. It's on the YouTube channel under the educational videos. It's six hours long.

Speaker 1: 13:14

So someone goes on and says six hours seriously, and then some expletives and then says something like this feels like an ego trip. I'm like I don't even know what to say to that. I honestly have no idea what to say to that. So I wrote a few comments or deleted them, and then I just gave up. No idea what to say to that. So I I wrote a few comments or deleted them and then I just gave up. So I don't really know what to do with people like that.

Speaker 1: 13:34

There are special right, or was it? Was it retarded? Um, special kind of stupid? Yeah, special needs, that sort of thing. Um, so this is not a recession, my friends. This is the us economy and the us companies being so confident that they're importing loads of stuff and, given that the dollar is falling, they're going to be exporting more as well. And it's a government that is actually cutting back on expenditure, which is just fine with me, because I think governments tend to waste all of our money, and I do pay some US taxes not a lot, but some.

Speaker 1: 14:06

So Corey says I watched it all six hours of it. It was fabulous. I'm glad you value all of it and I appreciate you know many of you are getting value out of it. Like I don't know, 30,000 people watched it or something. And then, of course, you know, one special person comes along and says how dare you put out a six hour video.

Speaker 1: 14:22

It's like that guy probably goes to work for six, eight or 10 hours a day, right, and he doesn't really think that all that time he's there just to make money and that if he's put a little bit of effort into actually making that money work for him, he might end up as relaxed as Winston, which is surely everybody's goal in life, isn't? It? Isn't everyone's goal in life to be Winston? I sort of think so. So now you understood that GDP numbers are fake news and the economy is actually doing pretty well. Look at investment fake news and the economy is actually doing pretty well. Look at investment right, that's huge up there. Change in private inventories that's a big one. And personal consumption okay, that's, in fairness, coming down quite a bit personal consumption, but yeah, it's basically just an export job. So that's really why this is a load of nonsense.