Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on a day where the market is looking well divided, and I want to teach you something in the next few minutes that most retail investors never actually think about, never really get to hear about, and therefore make you not just the best informed but also the best skilled investor out there. So I'm going to walk you through the following. Of course, winston is here with me in full attention mode, as you can clearly see snoozing very nicely. Now ask yourself is this the time to buy stocks? Is this the moment in the market where we're near the market bottom and we want to go all in? And if your answer to that is yes or maybe, then you're going to ask yourself why, and I'll challenge you to put some reasons into the chat here and we'll go through them together. I'll give you a couple of reasons Spending, government spending there is some manufacturing data out there. That's reason number two. There's reason number three Computers are doing certain things we'll discuss. And number four is the trade wall, the way it's developing the last 24 hours. And once you've gone through that, I really want you to understand why most of us continually and consistently invest in the wrong stock and, obviously, how we fix that. So let me share my screen with you here and you can see what I can see. There we go, and there is Winston in his full sleepy glory. So ask yourself this is time to buy? If yes, why we're going to go through the reasons and why we invest mostly in the wrong stocks here, in the wrong stocks here.

Speaker 1: 1:51

Do I feel lucky? Okay, some of you got sound. Okay, that's good, you can hear me. That's good. Winston can you hear us? I think he can. All right, so let's get started with us.

Speaker 1: 1:58

Let me ask you this Is this where you FOMO by? There are two types of investors. They're investors with no rules, which is the 99%. And what do they do? Well, they chase any old rally they can get their hands on. And what happens next? Well, next, the market pulls back. It always does. And then everybody who is chasing is now down big, bigly even, and is upset and frustrated and thinks the whole thing is manipulated, and blah, blah, blah.

Speaker 1: 2:28

What about the investors who actually make money? Well, they do the following they wait for high probability breakouts. They actually have risk management, not some idea in their head, but something that's set up in their brokerage that'll trigger when bad things happen, and they can check if the market is in a healthy rally or if it's just a rebound, and they know the difference, and we'll cover some of that today. And then they follow literally the same rules that successful investors have used for the last 50 years. I didn't invent this.

Speaker 1: 3:01

Decades before me, people figured out how the market works and a lot of them made a lot of money, and all we got to do is follow and learn. So stop gambling, my friends. I asked many of you yesterday if you're a degenerate gambler and pretty much everybody said yes, me. I love you for your honesty, but we want to change that because it's worked so well these last 10 or 20 years because the government was always there to bail us out. Market dip they started printing money. Market dip they cut interest rates. Market dip the government handed out checks, but that party seems to have stopped. With Trump, we've got four years of this right At least. So we have to learn how to actually become better investors.

Speaker 1: 3:49

Otherwise, you're just going to make money, you're going to lose it all. You're going to make money, you're going to lose it all and you're going to make your life really hard and it's going to be really, really a slow, nasty path to retirement for most of you there. I see the G's in the chat there. I know who you are, so let me show you this. I saw this today in our chat. We have a private chat community from Lenties and I just saw that. I'll just take a screenshot of this.

Speaker 1: 4:13

Jake says here, did I make good picks or is today just a good day? This was yesterday and Michael said there are stocks that went up every week during the entirety of the recent downturn and the tariff news cycle. You can win or lose money in any market. If you use the rules correctly, you should have good days ahead, set a stop loss in case things fall down. And then Jake said look, I did very well, better than the goal and the stretch goal I'd set on myself. I exceeded my best expectations. I made a bunch of good picks, bailed early on anything that went south. That's great, I agreed.

Speaker 1: 4:45

And then he says and this is what I really wanted to take away from this, this is a revelation for me, a revelation I had no clue what I was doing before. None, and if you're honest with yourself, you might find you are somewhere in that space too, right? So come and join me tomorrow if you care to actually learn, and I care to actually do something about this, and I'll put the link in the chat here for you. I'll pin it to the chat as well so you can grab yourself a free seat. Almost 2,000 of you already have signed up, which is super cool, so we'll have a Bigly event tomorrow at 11 am, new York time, which will be super fun. Here it is, and not only will you learn to pick great long-term stocks and therefore you come out of this smiling and winning and actually retire sooner, but I'll also give you my buy list, like what I'm buying right now, and not just the list, but actually why, and that's really much more important. I always want to teach you how, not just like give you stuff, because that's not actually that useful. It's useful for one day, but then you have to figure it out on your own. Links down below.

Speaker 1: 5:48

Winston has earned his rest. Some of you are asking why is Winston always so sleepy? It's 9pm here, so he's done two hikes today, one with me and one with his nanny day one with me and one with his sort of nanny and we just played in the park, chased a ball around, and this is his sort of snooze time, really, which is why he looks so peaceful and chilled, don't you Winston? You look very chilled, don't you? Yeah, life's good. Life's good if you're Winston, so make your life that good. That should be the inspiration. It always is for me. Like this guy's always happy, he's always smiling, he's always with us, which is amazing. All right, so let me walk you through the four reasons and thanks there for the smashing the like button. I appreciate that too. Winston does too. Is this the bottom of the market, right? Let's just objectively look at and I've got four reasons here and I'll show you how they work against each other.

Speaker 1: 6:39

So we've got government spending, and we've been waiting for that. We've been waiting for tax cuts or government spending one or the other, right? So Republicans are unveiling a $150 billion defence package. There is $27 billion for the Golden Dome, which is a sort of Israeli you know dome they have for, like, shoot down anything that they don't want to arrive in the country. They're going to get $29 billion for building 14 new warships. Most of those, one would hope, would be unmanned, because who wants to build manned ones? $11 billion for combat aircraft, that's Boeing $20 billion to replenish munitions. According to Palmer Luckey, the Angelo founder, the US has one week of ammunition in like a big conflict One week. And then there is $14 billion for AI. I'd like to see what the Palantir stocks do. We'll have a look at that in a second. But this is spending and this is very much domestic spending, like most of this is going to go to US companies, so it'll find its way through the economy a little bit, right.

Speaker 1: 7:45

9 pm, england. No, no, I'm in Hong Kong most of the well, most of the cold season. At least You'll find me in Europe shortly, but at the moment I'm in the US, in Hong Kong, all right. So that's a good reason, right? Here's another one. What about this one?

Speaker 1: 8:05

Reason number two the US Manufacturing Survey, which reflects the state of the US manufacturing, excuse me, and that just said that we are in the worst manufacturing recession that we have seen since, well, sort of forever. Really. It's worse than the 2008 global financial crisis. It's worse than 2000. And I think in reality there has been a manufacturing recession in the US probably for like two years, and they're sort of plastered over that with lots of government spending and manipulating data. So that's that.

Speaker 1: 8:51

So is that good news or is that bad news? How do you look at that? Well, there's two ways of looking at that. One is, well, it makes rate cuts a little bit more likely. But two, recession is not good for the stock market. Like, however way you look at that, it might get a little bit of a bounce from the lower rates interest rates but it's definitely not good. So we're kind of at this point. To me, this is sort of a not good right. I mean, the government spending is. That's definitely a good thing for the market. Whether or not you like war spending is another thing.

Speaker 1: 9:17

So what about item number three? All right, a bit more technical. I mentioned computers. I was talking about algo funds computers. They're called CTAs and they buy at certain levels and we've just triggered. One of their buy levels at 5,479 was the level where they start buying 5,479, which is sort of here. And guess what? Yesterday we closed slightly above it and they should act on the closing price. So okay, reminder not to drink protein shakes on live streams and well noted. Good job, I've got a mute button so I don't have to cough in your ear anymore. Uh, so that's good news. Now the next one will be five, five, nine, five, so we close. Above that, then you are really going, because these guys are going to start buying and it means the chasing higher goes, goes on and the short squeezing goes on and stuff. So so this is pretty good news, right? Okay, so now we've got two pieces of good news, one piece of recessionary news. So where are we now?

Speaker 1: 10:30

Well, what about my fourth piece of news? This is from El Presidente Donald J Trump. He said he expects to wrap up trade deals with US partners, looking for lower tariffs, I would say, over the next three to four weeks. And we're finished, by the way, I'm sorry, something stuck in my throat and he says I'll be finished. So he says, ok, hang on, we are finished or I'll be finished.

Speaker 1: 11:01

They're quite different statements, right? One is like we're done, and and one is like we will be done and he says now some countries may come back and ask for an adjustment. I'll consider that, but basically, with great knowledge, setting ready, right, this is, I mean fugazi right, it's just like yeah, it's, it'd be great if he's right, but none of this is done. This is all in process, talking, allegedly. He also says the Chinese called. Well, two hours ago, the Chinese government spokesperson says China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs.

Speaker 1: 11:39

The US should stop creating confusion.

Speaker 1: 11:41

So I'm confused. So that is a problem, by the way, because what does this create? Well, this creates one thing, and one thing only, and it is confusion, or uncertainty, as I would call it uncertain. What does the market hate the most? Uncertainty. So this is not a good thing. So, if you zoom out a little bit, what have you got? You've got two pieces of bad news down here and then you've got two pieces of good news out there. So you're kind of where you started, right, you sort of split. So, fundamentally, the reasons we are in this bear market, which is the uncertainty around US tariffs, have not been solved in any way. Shape or form. Slightly more positive talk Trump seems to be a little bit more optimistic, a little bit less kind of aggressive. But we know the Trump rulebook he might well flip on someday. You know what I mean. So every single professional investor I talk to, every single investor and banker I talk to hedge fund guy I talk to they're all cautious Now. They're buying stocks. Yes, they're buying certain things.