Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on another flip-floppity day for the markets. I want to, in the next couple of minutes, teach you a couple of things One, why this rally is not what you think, how you know what stocks to buy and when. I'll teach you the market bottom triangle, sort of a theory I've come up with, and I'll explain that to you. And I also want to show you where we really are in this market cycle. And then we're going to go through the charts of all your favorite stocks out there your Palantirs, nvidia, sofi, tesla, apples and so on, and you can also ask me questions.

Speaker 1: 0:34

Now Winston here has said chill, there, he is snoothing very nicely, aren't you, winston? We've just been shopping, so I'm going to share my screen with you. My friends, there we go. There is Winston too, in his rather happy little state, and pre-market is basically flat. It's very, very flat like a pancake, not a lot going on out there. So why is that? Well, let's go through these six points here first, and these six points will be useful to you. Let me know by putting a one in the chat, and that way I know that you actually, you know, awake and alive, and all that sort of thing. You may also, if you really wish, hit the like button, but only if you must. I'm not going to, you know, hold you to that. Thanks for the ones that I see them running in. Kisses to the kittens. They're super sweet. I just cuddled them. They're the sweetest little things. They're like lying upside down with their tummies in the air. They're amazing. So there's another video in the. In the video coming up later today, we'll put a little kitten video at the end. You don't know what I'm talking about. We just had kittens on Easter Sunday.

Speaker 1: 1:38

Okay, so this is what, what just happened here, right? So this is the S&P, basically futures, but for intents and purposes it's the same thing as the S&P 500. So we got this announcement from the Wall Street Journal China tariffs may be cut right. So market rallies. Reuters then said that there will be no unilateral steps, as in Trump saying look, I'm not going to lower rates tariffs unless China and us agree on something. And then Besson repeats no unilateral offer from Trump. Full China deal may take two to three years. So we kind of go back to exactly where we started actually a little worse, right, and that's a little bit of flip for what we have.

Speaker 1: 2:19

And there's a bunch more headlines I want to show you. China says US should revoke unilateral tariffs, denies talks, they're not even talking. No one's talking to anybody, apparently. And then you have major US companies like American Air. They just pulled their full outlooks. They're just saying we're not going to give you any guidance at all. We don't know where the hell this year is going to go. We just don't know. And that's curious because American air travel is largely a domestic issue. So people are obviously feeling a little bit worried about recessions and so on. Southwest also trimmed their growth plans amongst economic uncertainty. Again, that's a domestic issue. It reflects not greatly on the economy. And then we have some of the defensive stocks out there Procter Gamble lower sales guidance, pepsi cuts four-year profit view. These are meant to be the stable businesses that will pull us through a recession, should we get one right.

Speaker 1: 3:20

So this is not brilliant from a sort of news point of view, and what I therefore want to do is and you're going to be asking yourself this, right, you're going to be like well, what do I buy now? Do I buy tech? Is it time? Do I buy gold? Is it that of you? Someone who's attended one of my Saturday live teaching sessions and they're always a little different and she said, Carmen says it was phenomenally worth every minute. So my husband and I joined you guys as well. My grandma would say if you can't find anything. I said, okay, that's not really about that, but just saying if you, you know, she found a lot of value in it, and that's exactly what I want to do for you guys. So I'm running a stock picking marathon webinar masterclass.

Speaker 1: 4:10

If you wish, on Saturday at 11 am New York time, I'll also give you my actual buy list and I will not just give it to you but actually explain to you why I'm buying, what I'm buying and how I'm selecting it. So you can start to do the same things. And when you profit from the market whether it goes up or down or sideways or round and round in circles well, you just have more freedom, right? You can retire sooner or you can retire better if you already are. So come and join me on Saturday. If you're going to join me on Saturday, put a smiley in the chat FelixVenceorg slash webinars where you sign up for that. Any kind of smiley will do.

Speaker 1: 4:48

And now let me then talk to you about the market bottom triangle, which is a little concept I've sort of come up with, and ali jeffrey adolf trump, my friend, you're a nitwit, I'm gonna block you. Um, yeah, bye-bye. So, um, what problem actually? Because these are the first questions I always ask, like we go through a crash, right, something bad happens, and then you're going to, like, figure out, where is the market bottom here? I'm loving all the uh, the crazy emojis, uh, loving that car, nice one. And um, I'm excited to see you guys there as well. I hope you consider a better timing for viewers in asia.

Speaker 1: 5:34

My friend, I'm in, I'm in hong kong. Like, what's stopping you? If it's not stopping me, um, it'll be 11 pm my time, and I'm very happy to do that on a Saturday because that way most of you guys can join in the US and Europe and, yes, in Asia too. And if you don't want to be up at 11 pm or till midnight or whatever, or one in the morning to actually learn how to manage your money, then you probably don't want to learn that bad, and that's also okay. Maybe you're not quite ready to learn yet, but if you, if you actually want to learn, I've got people who join me and they're like it's my four in the morning, I'm waking up, right.

Speaker 1: 6:04

I used to run these sessions on a Tuesday and someone would say it's 3am my time. I've got to go to my work shift at 6am, but I stayed up for two hours because I actually wanted to learn. And that's commitment, and that means's all about because there are these amazing golden freaking opportunities out there right now. And and once you realize that and of course, you're going to learn how to protect your money as well then well, things really really change. Once you understand how the market really really works. And that's why I'm going to do this for you on Saturday. We'll probably be going quite an hour and a half or so and I'll teach you the actual selection criteria that the most successful stock investors out there use. And there are a lot of really good companies right now that are out there. They're on sale.

Speaker 1: 6:54

So whether you're joining me or not, it's entirely up to you. I can't create the motivation on your front. I'll try to do a bit of that as well on Saturday, but mostly it's about well, it's a little bit mindset. The mindset comes first, right. If your mindset isn't right, I can give you the book with all the rules and you won't read it, or you'll read it and you won't apply it. So you definitely need a bit of that. How much Cantonese have you learned? Being in Hong Kong, I can order a pineapple bun, which is one of my favorite Cantonese piece of bakery goods, but not a great deal, I must admit. They make it too easy to speak English here, which is amazing and very kind of them.

Speaker 1: 7:34

Now let's come back to the market bottom triangle. How do you know that the market has bottomed? How do you know that? We therefore want to start buying again. So the first question is what problem caused the crash? So what caused the crash? Well, it's a voluntary one. It's tariff uncertainty, basically, and just general uncertainty around economic policy. Then the second question you got to ask yourself well, is that reason resolved, or is this still an active problem? And to me it's still an active problem. We have zero trade deals, like none, not one right? Um, it's not really clear at what level these tariffs are going to be. Will they be 20, 140? It seems to change every other day, and that's probably strategy. I'm going to give Trump the benefit of the doubt there that it's probably his slightly mad way of negotiating. So the problem is still there. So to me this is kind of a fail right. So we haven't solved the problem yet and therefore it's unlikely that we're at the bottom of the market. That would be my first way of looking at that.

Speaker 1: 8:41

Now the second part of the triangle I look at is what about defensive stocks when you go into a downturn? Defensive stocks, and what are defensive stocks? Well, it's stuff like consumer staples and that's a weird phrase. I get that. It's sort of stuff you need to live on, right? Yeah, you're definitely going to buy Coca-Cola. Is one actually Generally Procter Gamble-type products are you know? You're going to still buy shampoo and soap and, one would hope, and you know, toilet paper and just general food. You're going to buy those things because you need them, right? Utilities also fall into that category because you're still using electricity and water and all those things. So those are the sort of sectors that we look at and go well, they should do reasonably well even if the worst happens. Right, they're very domestic and therefore that's normally where we go. So you got to ask yourself are defensive stocks performing well? Or, if there's a little bit of bad news on them, are they dropping really, really hard on bad news.

Speaker 1: 9:43

Now let me show you three quick charts here of what people would generally consider defensive stocks. Hang on, unh is one. May I change the ticker. Unh is one because it's health insurance, right. Look at that drop there, right. Earnings not amazing, boom right. Drops like I mean really, really harshly, 26% down. Another one is Verizon, because you're still going to use communication equipment, right. Also, was it Verizon on my list? Yeah, not as bad. Not as bad, obviously the drop down here, but still not amazing. What about NOC, for example? Generally speaking, war continues, recession or not, and again, here's a massive drop on just slightly bad news, not the end of the world 10% down. I'm a little concerned about that overreaction. I think it's an overreaction on these stocks. So for me this is sort of a yeah, it's kind of a half a fail, like there's definitely some of these out there right Now.

Speaker 1: 10:57

The third part of my triangle and here's the full triangle and it's full glory, and obviously feel free to take a screenshot or a note or something. After a VIX spike. So the VIX is the fear index. After that has spiked, well, has it returned to sort of normal levels? And what's normal. Normal is about 20 and below. Well, have a look at the VIX. So let me show you the August crash last year, august crash. So what did you see? You see this tremendous spike. But that's one day.

Speaker 1: 11:30

On day two, we're back at about 30, actually 27. This is on day two. We're at 27. So day two, we're at 27. Day three we're basically still at 27. So that was day two, day three, and then at day four we are going back down to here, which is sort of 23. By day four we are basically at 20 again. So, just four days the problem got resolved, right, because the fundamental problem sort of got resolved.

Speaker 1: 12:05

Now look at this scenario here where we jumped up again, right, massive spike up there On day two, this one here. Where were we? We were at 50 something I've got to remove that, don't I. We were at sort of 52, right. Day three, we're at about 51. Day four, we're somewhere around here at around 40. Next day, we are a little bit lower, around 37. And right now we're still trading at 27, about 12 days later. So you can see that the panic is much longer lasting than, say, in August last year when we had a major drop in the markets right. So I'm not liking this and yes, we can get a short-term little mini rally going here and it's entirely possible and it looks like it might. But really these levels need to drop below 20 for the market to come back to a calm kind of a water. And if you look at the NASDAQ, what's it doing? And I think this is what it's likely to keep doing. I think it's likely to do this and I think people are going to get really irritated with this because it's going to give you a little bit 1%, it's going to take it away the next day and that sort of thing, because