Speaker 1: 0:01

Yeah, and welcome to this pre-morning live stream. A heck of a lot has happened since we last spoke. Markets exploded in a good way, and pulling back a little bit today, and I want you to walk away from the next few minutes understanding why what yesterday happened happened, what it means, what's coming next and what you should do about it right now. And I was going to put this into five points and then, while I talk to Winston about it, there he is Good boy, winston, and he said well, you get out a few things, you get out a few things. So this isn't quite as succinct as I thought. It's nine points. I just couldn't help it. I just had to add to this. So I want you to understand what caused the bounce and why, what's going to happen next and why it might not be what you want. I'll give you a really great big round bottom indicator and what to buy now. I'll explain the trade war cycle to you, because that'll happen a few more times And's really, really important, and why gold is something you're going to want to watch seriously, even if you're not invested in gold at all, and the one thing you need to check one time per day. It'll take you 30 seconds, but it'll tell you exactly what's going on, just like one number, and then I'll give you a little bit of wisdom from a legend, because I think that's going to be helpful. And then why buying here might not always work, and maybe there are some things we might want to buy and there's some things we definitely don't want to buy. So do those nine things sound like something that might be of high value to you? Winston seems to think so, if it is put a V in the chat, just a V for value, and I'll see that this is useful for you. So I know there's a sort of information that might be useful for you. Cool, brilliant guys. So let me get started, shall we? Should we get started? Should we get started? Okay, lots of Vs here, brilliant guys. Thanks for all those Vs. Eric writing nine, that also works. Lots of Vs, v, v, v, vs.

Speaker 1: 2:07

So this is what happened yesterday. The president of the United States wrote that he was going to. He wrote quite a lot of things, but the key thing here being I authorized a 90-day pause and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention and a lot of other stuff. So the market was like yay, we get 90 days, we get 90 days, we get 90 days, great Right. But why did he do that? Did he just wake up and thought I'm going to be soft on tariffs this morning? He just melted a bit because he's a nice soft guy at the heart. No, goldman Sachs, the invested bankers with a golden heart, they're saying the explanation is that the freezing of fund markets drove.

Speaker 1: 2:54

The Trump pivot is a credible one, which is what I was talking about yesterday, if you joined me. Then the bond market almost froze and we had a massive margin call, so margin call on hedge funds and there was a serious risk. We'd have to bail them out, not a small risk about just a small amount of money $1.5 trillion and that would have caused a global financial crisis. And Trump explained to him. Jp Morgan's Jamie Dimon went on Fox News because he knows Trump watches Fox News. He basically said this is going to cause a recession. So Trump directed back to not cause a financial crisis. And this is obviously being swept under the rug, because it would also kind of imply that he was sort of causing a global financial crisis. Of course, the hedge funds are ultimately to blame, but that's actually what happened here yesterday.

Speaker 1: 3:54

Does that make some sense to you? If that makes some sense to you, put a one in the chat. So I know this is landing for you. The explanation works for you. So what happens next? Well, are you a long-term investor or are you a short-term trader? Which one is it?

Speaker 1: 4:12

I'm going to ask you lots of questions here. Put an L in the chat if you're a long-term investor, so put an L in there if you're an investor. Or put a T in there if you're a trader, okay, trader or long-term, and that will determine whether or not you're going to like what I'm about to tell you. Okay, I'm getting some L's here. Long, long, long, both, both. Yeah, okay, that's me too. Lots of longs, but lots of longs. Yeah, okay, that makes sense. And you know, 70, 80% of people are generally long-term investors. Some of you are both. A couple of you are just pure traders Okay. Most of you are long-term investors Okay. So when we get a 5% gain in the S&P, like we saw yesterday here, okay, cool, most of you guys are long-term people. Amazing, I've got something for you in a moment as well.

Speaker 1: 4:59

When we get a 5% rally in one day, right, we have not that many of them. Literally, you know 20 or something like that since 1950, when the data started. What happens the day after the next day? Yeah, not that good. On average, we actually go down 0.7%. That's today, by the way.

Speaker 1: 5:19

Have a look at the pre-market. And here she is. We're down a little bit. Qqq right now is about 2% down. We'll come back to this in a second.

Speaker 1: 5:33

What about five days later? Still not that good. It's about 1.7% down, because this level of craziness, volatility, usually only happens when something bad just happened. What about a month out? Okay, you long-term guys are starting to win 1.8% up with a 70% probability. So that's a 70% chance of making 1.8%. Not that exciting, right? Let's jump to six months On. Six months on average, we're up 11% sorry, 11% with also a 70% probability happening. And 12 months later. So now you long-term chaps are winners and the long-term we are up 27% with a 91% probability.

Speaker 1: 6:24

So if you're a long-term investor, that is good. All you got to do is pick the good ones. That's all you got to do. That's your entire job. Don't pick the duds right. Don't put all your money in GameStop. That's your only job, really, and I'll teach you that.

Speaker 1: 6:40

By the way, on Saturday if you want to join me. We've gone on a whole session of how to pick the best stocks, because only the best stocks make money. The vast majority of stocks lose you money. So if you want to learn how we do that and how the best investors in the world do that, come and join me on Saturday. It's completely free of charge phoenixfriendsorg slash webinar and I'll teach you. I'm giving up my Saturday to get people out of this rut and actually become winners out of this crash, because there is opportunity. Knocking big, big, big opportunity knocking 27% up in 12 months wouldn't be so bad, right, so come and join me and grab yourself a seat there. 2,000 of you already have, which is crazy. So I think we're going to have a massive, massive, massive life event, which I'm excited about Now.

Speaker 1: 7:26

Let me then give you a bottom indicator there, and Juma says I hope the next webinar is not a sales pitch, juma, in these sales pitches, in these webinars. Webinars, rather, teach you a ton of stuff for free, give you a huge amount of value. And yeah, if you want to, in addition to learning all that free stuff that I give you, you want to come and get mentoring with us and my team and my mentors, who are all investment bankers. You can. You don't have to. It's completely free. It's a free world, right.

Speaker 1: 7:55

So why do I offer that? Because I think the best way to learn is always with a coach. That's whether you are learning sports or driving or scuba diving, or flying a plane or managing your money, which is the one thing that's actually going to impact your life. To tell you whether you're going to get free, but you don't have to I literally give away like 95% of all my wisdom and knowledge and experience and everything for free. And the cherry on top is just the live, daily mentoring, where you can hop on one-on-one calls and so on, but you don't have to do that. So it's completely. It's a free world right.

Speaker 1: 8:31

So if you want to take the value and do it, figure it out on your own, brilliant, amazing, right. That's the whole mission here. We want to impact a million people and you want me to remove Winston? No, no, no, why? Why? Winston Shall we remove you? I think he looks unimpressed. All right, fine, the Winston cam goes. So, yeah, he's blocking the key thing.

Speaker 1: 8:56

I wrote out the core numbers for you at the top here, right, did you guys get that? I think you guys got that right. So this is a great bottom indicator. Helps you see the bottom from the front, that sort of thing. And when everybody is really really really miserable, depressed and miserable and bearish and just horrible, that's usually the bottom of the market.

Speaker 1: 9:22

So if you go back a little bit in time, this was 87 here. That was the bottom of the market In 90,. What was that? Three or four or something, I don't know. I'm too young to remember that. Can we get a straight line up? That was kind of the bottom of the market In 2008,. I do remember that Most of my Bank of France friends got fired and just sat around in cafes with copies of the Financial Times to look like they were meaning to do something. That was near the bottom of the market. And then right now we're here and the theory therefore being that we are near the bottom of the market. Now my lines are pretty straight and you'll see here in 2008, it wasn't the exact bottom of the market, right, we did go a little bit lower, but was it a good time to buy? In hindsight? Yeah, you're never going to get the bottom of the market You're not going to find it it's impossible, right but you can be near it. So that's something that makes me feel a little bit more bullish.

Speaker 1: 10:18

If you are a long-term investor, now, of course, the next question is going to be well, what do you actually then buy? And I'll help you answer that by giving you some actual rules, some hard rules that the most successful investors out there in the world have used for decades, and basically teach you how to learn to pick great long-term stocks and therefore retire sooner, retire better, which is ultimately what this is about for most people, right? It's allowed me to retire in my early 40s and now I get to do this fun thing, because you know, doing nothing is really overrated, and if you have a job, you're probably hoping for that. I did nothing for six weeks. It drove me nuts. So doing something that gives you satisfaction, where you make an impact, where you help people and people send you lots of lovely, nice messages every day For me, that's the thing that gets me out of bed in the morning, so I'm super happy to always share with you guys here what happens just pre-market, because I'd probably be looking at this. Just pre-market, because I'd probably be looking at this. Well, I would be looking at this anyway. It wouldn't take me quite as long, but it's a lot more fun with 3,000 people. So if you're enjoying this, guys smash the like button. Juma, appreciate that you love the rules. Teach it to my working friends Also. Amazing. And of course, this is what this is all about Share the wisdom, share the knowledge, share the skills, because it isn't about smarts, it's about just knowing what the rules are right Now.

Speaker 1: 11:39

This is a little bit what, I think, has me concerned right now, and this is what Trump said basically yesterday we only reverse tariffs for a short period of time. Nothing is over yet. It's like a bad movie, isn't it? So people were getting afraid. And he's referring to the bond market right, he's referring to the hedge funds who were calling up going. Excuse me, we would just politely like to ask either you pause the tariffs for a little while or you send us a check for a trillion and a half. It's really up to you. So, politically a little bit better to just pause the tariffs for a trillion and a half. It's really up to you. So, politically a little bit better to just pause the tariffs for a little bit, right, but penguins, I think, are still getting taxed At least I think so.

Speaker 1: 12:21

So what are we going to get back to? Well, there seems to be this trade war cycle here, right? So at the moment the market rallies on some temporary news that everything is going to be not quite as terrible as before. Then very little progress is made, because most of these people they're talking to are politicians who are used to doing nothing and who measure their success in activity, not in outcomes, and in speeches, not in achievements, and therefore very little is likely to happen, and therefore Trump is going to get tough on trade again. The market sells off on the trade war fears. Then Trump says well, there'll be a solution. 87 people are wanting to kiss my feet this morning, or something like that. And then we go back and round and round and round. We go until eventually we actually get to a real resolution, but we're not there yet. Because we're not there yet, I'm a little bit cautious and I urge you to be a little bit cautious yourself.