Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and, of course, winston. Most importantly and welcome to this pre-morning live stream pre-market. It's a pretty decent looking pre-market right now, and what I want to walk you through is the following, and I shall share my screen with you so you can see it the big picture. Give you a couple of really important data points that every major investor today got briefed on. Well, at least if they're working on Wall Street, you have the pleasure of hearing it from me and Winston. And then we're going to look at literally which stocks to be buying right now on this rebound, on this rally, and when. Most important question, it's not what you buy, but when you buy it. And number three, you can ask me about your favorite stocks. Very simple today, right? Very simple framework today. This is exactly what we're going to do. If that's something that you think might be useful for you, put a one in the chat down below and Winston will look very enthusiastic. I'm sure Is that your best enthusiastic face there, winston, apparently. So let's jump straight into it, shall we? And my goal here today is not only make you the most informed investor by understanding the bigger picture and also helping you avoid some pitfalls on these stocks we're going to look at as well as your own stocks I'm loving all the ones coming in, thanks guys but also actually teach you part of the strategy here, part of the rulebook that Wall Street uses to consistently make money versus retail, who seem to go from like yay to. I'm feeling really sad and miserable, right, and I think a lot of people have been feeling quite miserable the last couple of weeks, and we don't know whether the misery will not come back next week. It could, it could I'm not going to be a doomsayer here as entirely possible, but let me give you a couple of reasons why you might feel happy and elated today.

Speaker 1: 1:50

These are shorts. They're just from JP Morgan and it's basically short interest. So how many people are shorting stocks? And, well, we've been at pretty low levels, but what you see? Well, we're going up, so shorts are basically back in fashion.

Speaker 1: 2:08

And what does that mean for you? It means, well, what happens if the market goes up and you're short a stock? What happens to you? You lose money, right, and what are you therefore going to do? Well, eventually you're going to close that position. How do you close a short position? How do you close a short position? To close it. You need to do what you need to do exactly. You need to buy the stock, so that's what's called a short squeeze, right? So the more you go, the more people are short. The more you go up, the more likely it is you're going to go up a lot more, because all those guys who shorted the market have to now unwind their positions. Right, and Scott, there you're, of course, completely right, as is Brent. Well done in melatonics as well. So that's the first point here.

Speaker 1: 2:53

And then we've got seasonality, which impacts general momentum, and, if you hadn't noticed yet, the stock market is basically a lunatic asylum. It's all about psychology. It's all about how are we feeling today. It's not really about fundamentals, right? I just watched a little clip I think it was Paul Tudor Jones and he said something like yeah, you can be a fundamental investor and you can say I'm buying this company because it's fundamentally great, and some mornings you feel like you're a genius because you made a lot of money, and some mornings you just feel like crying because everything is down and you don't really know why. That's the problem with fundamental investing it only works in the really long term I'm talking sort of 10, 20 years and in the meantime you're going to feel mostly pretty horrible. So they switched to purely strategy-driven investing which has nothing to do with the fundamentals of a company. Like I will buy a short-term company, I mean for the short term, and then it'll know virtually nothing about them. I won't know what they make or who their customers are, or any of it. I'm just looking at the chart. Why? Because the chart tells me everything that everybody else in the world thinks about that stock, which is kind of like the ultimate research, and it's much simpler and it's, in my experience, much more profitable, which is also why Wall Street does that. So right now, a lot of people are going to be looking at this chart here. And it is, of course, seasonality. It's not just about Christmas and Easter and that sort of thing, although Easter is coming up and what do we see? Well, we've just been through the horrible run into March and then from 23rd of March onwards 23rd you might want to write that down of March, that's usually the low point. We then typically have a lovely little rally going into the end of the year, right? So that's useful, right? Is that useful? Is that useful? Let me know if it's useful, put a one in the chat if you think that's useful. And then we're getting a little bit technical here. But I think you can handle it right. I think you can handle a little bit more sophisticated stuff than me screaming to the moon, like some people do.

Speaker 1: 5:00

Saying this also comes from Goldman Sachs. Gs stands for Goldman Sachs CTA estimates. Ctas are basically algo funds, so they're simply computers. I'm loving all the ones coming in there. Guys, my intention is always to give you some real value and make my morning research a little bit more entertaining and a little bit less lonely. 1,500 of you here. 10% of you hit the like button. The other 90% are just going. Why does this guy have such weird hair? Computers are going to buy if the market goes sideways. If the market goes sideways, they're going to buy. If the market goes up a little bit, they're going to buy. If the market goes up a lot, they're going to buy. If the market goes down, they basically do nothing. It's a pretty sweet setup and it could be a lot If the market goes up a lot.

Speaker 1: 5:51

These guys might buy $55 billion worth of stock over the next month. It's quite a lot. It's quite a lot of money, right, but it gets better, gets better yes, much better. Potentially no-transcript pension funds are going to be buying the largest amounts of shares since COVID Really, covid crash, yeah, because we've had this freak little drawdown. So they might be buying about 80 billion by the end of the month, which is coming up pretty soon and this is data from UBS, the Swissies, and when we also have mutual funds, essentially we're also going to buy something like an extra 20 billion. So altogether you've got the 20 billion right. We have the 80 billion from pension funds and then we have another potentially 55 billion from algo funds. That is quite a lot of money. That's $155 billion that might flow into the stock market in the next period. That's pretty good, right? So the rebalancing is by the end of it's quarterly, so that's the end of March. The CTAs might be a little bit slower, but, yeah, the rebalancing is a quarterly thing.

Speaker 1: 7:23

That thanks for the question there, scott. Does that mean you should buy everything? No, it doesn't, it doesn't. And because that was your question, that was my second point, right? What was my second point? Does anybody remember when was it? Which stocks to buy and when? And when is really the key part here, because most people buy at the wrong time. Right Now, everything that I'm about to tell you comes with a huge disclaimer.

Speaker 1: 7:50

You will lose money on pretty much everything that I recommend and I don't actually recommend anything, but you know what I'm saying. And why will you lose money? Because you don't know when to buy and you don't know when to sell, and that's the biggest problem, right, and people take half information and then they run with it and that's a very dangerous thing. Like I made a video on, I think, last week, on a stock called Zim, for example, and I said I think tremendous potential. On a stock called Zim, for example, and I said I think tremendous potential. People didn't make it past minute three where I said but I'm not buying it now for X, y, z reasons. I'm waiting for the right setup. So obviously somebody goes out and buys it and then comes back to me and says it's 10% down. You were wrong and I'm like you did not watch the full video. And the same disclaimer applies today.

Speaker 1: 8:32

Unless you actually watch my Stocks Masterclass, which teaches you not just how to spot break, you don't master that. You will should be happy with the 11% you're going to get and the average life you're going to live Maybe a little harsh, but it's true and if you are not presently invested, putting your money in an index fund is a 10 times improvement. To start with, it's not a bad thing to do, but if you want to potentially do better and you want more than average, then don't just learn when to buy stuff, but you get to learn when to sell stuff. Okay, I hope that sunk in, and what do I want you therefore to do is go and watch the masterclass and learn when to sell, and you will never, ever. That's the beautiful thing.

Speaker 1: 9:48

The next time the market collapses, you're going to be smiling. Why? Because you're sitting on cash. I'm sitting on lots of cash right now. Why? Because lots of things I had I sold and I didn't even have to press the button. I did it automatically, and therefore I'm like it's brilliant. Lots of buying opportunities. So what am I buying? That's all I really want to know.

Speaker 1: 10:07

So let's look at the market here. Risk management is key, says Jerry there. Yeah, yeah, and that's what it's all about. Like, honestly, the only reason great investors make money is great risk management. They are probably not that much better at picking stocks. They are just really, really good at not losing money, and if you just focused on that 100 and it's not sexy, it not exciting you will make twice as much money, promise, literally. Okay.

Speaker 1: 10:37

So let's have a look at some charts here, and this, of course, is in tradevisionio, which is the platform that we built to help you find better trades, better stocks, give you access to the same data that Wall Street has access to, and I'll walk you through here some, and then you can ask me questions and I'll walk through some of yours as well. You always got to start at the top. What's the top of the market? It's the S&P 500, right. And what are we looking at here? Well, we're looking at yesterday, a nice little I'm going to find myself a nice little pen here, so that was bright as we can get.

Speaker 1: 11:09

So there we go, and we had a what we call a gap up, right. So there's a gap between these last two candles here, and that's a very, very bullish thing. Does that mean we're buying the S&P hand over fist? And this is where it gets a little bit complicated, because index funds are very different to individual stocks and you have to treat them differently. If you treat them the same, you will lose money. Who wants to lose money? Anybody? No, probably not, unless you are a bit of a psychopath, in which case please leave this channel quietly. And so Nico says rule number one is never lose money. Market rule number two is remember rule number one. That's pretty much it.

Speaker 1: 11:49

Look at Okta. Okta is, funnily enough, on my list. Can you see that at the top here? I mean, you can't see the top, but Okta is about the fifth stock that we're going to look at. We're going to look at Palantir, we're going to look at Tesla, we're going to look at a couple of other to buy here, things like hood and stuff. So there's a gap up. That's positive. Right Now, the real lesson, of course, is to learn when to sell. Right. That was the sell point. Okay, that was when we sold.

Speaker 1: 12:17

And right now we've moved above a line here, which I'm going to draw in yellow again because it's a bit brown there. That's the 200-day moving average line. That's the 200-day moving average line. We're above that again. So that's good. Now the only thing I buy close to or below the 200-day moving average line is what? Not my favorite stock, not my second most favorite stock, not my third most favorite stock. The only thing I buy below the 200 200 moving day average line is an index fund Because it's the only thing that is guaranteed in the long run to go up. The S&P 500 will go up in the long run Maybe not a lot, but it'll go up in the long run. So it's the only thing that I would buy down here. Nothing else. I would touch the 200 day moving average line. So it's a nice improvement which gives us some optimism here in this pre-market. We're trading a little bit higher again. So that's a good thing, right. So we kind of want to look at that.

Speaker 1: 13:15

What about the NASDAQ, the QQQ? Well, we also have some good news, not quite as good. Nice gap up. We broke through the resistance yesterday. What happened there? That line there, the resistance line at 485. I call it the French resistance.

Speaker 1: 13:37

I picture a French man behind a hedge with a big bottle of burgundy who wants to hit you over the head. And that's fairly accurate because that's what the hedge fund guys say. So just imagine it's a hedge fund guy or a market maker from a French hedge fund and they sell. So we've beaten them right, we have knocked them out. It wasn't too hard. They were probably drunk. If they were French. We're being a bit mean, aren't we, to the Frenchies? Any French people on the channel here who feel offended, let me know. Make my day.

Speaker 1: 14:09

I don't know what's happening this morning with me. I haven't had my enough tea yet, obviously. And we are, though, below that brown line there, which is the 200-day moving average line. That 200-day moving average is still below it, so we're still a little bit lower. But because it is an index, it is a fair thing to buy if, and only if, you have like a 10-year time horizon. If you've got 10 years, you're going to be good. You're going to be fine buying the index at these levels. If your time horizon is a year, there's a pretty high chance you're going to lose money, so don't do it. So we have some nice improvements here, which makes us feel a little bit.