Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to another volatile day on Wall Street. And what I want to do here is a little bit different to what you normally find on YouTube, and that is I want to give you the kind of briefing that you would get if you're working in a fund or an investment bank, because that's what they do Like. I used to have 7 am morning meetings. Hated the bloody things, because I hate getting up at 6. Who wants to get up at 6 o'clock? But what we'd have is like these expert people who've traded the market for decades and they'd share with us exactly what just happened and the best way to understand that. And part of that is the information, the research and the analysis of all the other investment banks. That sort of gets cross-shared and cross-pollinated. Now, the problem with this is that it doesn't ever reach you, does it? Retail investors never get to hear about it. They just hear some sort of dumbed down version by mainstream media about a week later. And what I want to do here is make you the best informed investor out there and, secondly, encourage you to also become the best educated investor, because there's a difference between information and news and how to use it. But then, secondly, we need to add skills to it, and then we also need to add the mindset to it. We're not going to achieve all of that here today, but at least we're going to work a lot on the first two in the next couple of minutes. So that's something that you think is going to be massively useful for you to understand what's driving the market today in the coming weeks.

Speaker 1: 1:19

Then write well, write useful in the chat and I'm going to walk you through the following here, which is this Wall Street has just flipped. Yesterday, we saw a massive uptick in a lot of the higher risk names, and there's a reason for that, and I'm going to explain to you exactly what that reason is, because that's important. And then, secondly, everyone's asking and everyone wants to know is it time to buy the bounce on stocks like Nvidia and and palantir, and tesla and all the big tech stocks? And I'm going to give you the answer to that as well. And then I also want to explain to you why wall street just said one of the biggest banks out there just said that the real risk is to the upside, but and there is always a but isn't there. There is a warning from same investment banks that literally no one in retail is aware of. If you ask a million people today on the street, no one is going to know that information. You will by the end of it, and I hope you're going to spread it, because that's how we make other people smarter.

Speaker 1: 2:16

And then two more items, which is the most important chart of the day, and that's the real bottom line here. I want you to make sure you you've got that ingrained, take a screenshot when we get to it. And then also what stocks to be actually buying now. Okay, so let's talk that through. And should we get cracking? I think so. Right, so this is jp morgan, and they basically just came out with well, we think the worst is probably behind us. Now. I add the probably there for a legal disclaimer, but I will explain to you why.

Speaker 1: 2:50

So their analysis rests on this, and this is a screenshot that I've taken from a software that we build which is called Trade Vision, for which you can get a free trial. And again, I built that because when I was working inside of a bank and I was really lucky to land there, like, I had no idea before, like no idea when to buy or sell or what to buy or sell. But I got this job and one of the things that I did was collate all this data and my boss was the guy in charge of finding trades like every day, every single day. So I was his mini me, his mini-me, and I therefore have to prepare the data and find the ideas and then show them to him. And we have this amazing data and it costs like $100,000 a year, so I appreciate that's unreasonable for most people to pay. So we therefore built Trade Vision and again, there's a link down below to a free trial there and it just helps you find better trades. It helps you find better exit points, it helps you track your portfolio, it gives you an insight into the dark pools. It's about to give you the most amazing news in the world. The app's coming out in the next couple of days. We're going to add alerts to the app and we're going to have a real lot of cool features where we can actually show you the breakouts live, and so on. So I'm super excited for what we're doing there. But excited for what we're doing there. But get yourself a free trial. And again, if you're doing that, just write TV in the chat and I'll see that you're using it or you're already about to sign up.

Speaker 1: 4:15

So what are we looking at here? Well, there's a little thing down here, that squiggly line that's called RSI. It's basically an indicator. When it's really high, wall Street says we're overbought and when it's really low, wall Street says we're oversold. Does that make some sense to you? Again, if that makes some sense to you, just write a one in the chat and I can see that that makes some sense to you here on the RSI.

Speaker 1: 4:35

So where are we right now? Well, we're down here, right. Have we ever been that low? Well, not in the last year or so. We were almost that low here, in sort of September 2024. In August last year we were almost that low, but not quite, and that has generally been. If you draw some little lines up, that has generally been, and somebody taught me yesterday I could draw straight lines on this, by the way, thank you very much for that. You're a kind human being and you know my lines are not exactly straight, but you get the idea. Those were, generally speaking, bottoms of the market. There's also that one here which will bring us up to that there.

Speaker 1: 5:14

So it's a pretty decent indicator, right, pretty decent indicator of bottoms, and that's basically why JP Morgan probably the most powerful bank in the world is saying well, I think we're nearly at the bottom of this, and maybe you don't believe me, but there's actually a screenshot of what they're saying. The distribution of the full report is restricted. Whoops, I guess I shouldn't have taken that screenshot and shared it with you. Well, never mind, what are they going to do about it? He says in handcuffs. Three days later they're saying we're getting close to some of the worst we've seen in the past two years in both North America and emerging markets, and that the best case scenario might not be a steady recovery in markets. Steady recovery, so nothing like massive or super, super quick, but steady. Steady is pretty good. I think at this point we'd all take steady. Are you happy with steady right now? I think you probably are.

Speaker 1: 6:06

So what's the thing that everybody wants to know about? Is it now time to buy the NVIDIAs and the Palantirs? Should we be loading up the boat? Well, let me give you an answer to that, because there is NVIDIA, for example. It's an example. I'll run you through one example and then I'll tell you how you can answer the question yourself and everything else.

Speaker 1: 6:26

Because, again, what's more useful to you? I give you a fish, right? Or I give you the rot and how to use it. If I give you 10 fish today, well, nine of them will go off and get very smelly, whereas if I give you the rot, and how forever, you can teach it to your children.

Speaker 1: 6:42

You could literally be the one person in your family that breaks this evil history of having to go to work for generations. What's that all about, right? Like I look at it now and what I know now, I'm like what were they all doing, my lovely ancestors? What were they all doing? Well, they clearly didn't have the knowledge that I was very lucky to stumble upon because otherwise they wouldn't have a job, right? I've been very happily, joyously, unemployed for the last 13 years or so, 15 years maybe, maybe longer, and I do actually have some businesses, but they don't employ me. I employ others, which is a different story, all right, so let's look at Nvidia. That's what you care about, right?

Speaker 1: 7:20

So nice big bounce there yesterday. That yellow line there, by the way, is the 50-day moving average line. Moving average when we're above that, it's generally a good thing. We're below that, it's generally a little bit of a frightening thing. So what do you see with a chart like that? Well, zoom out a little bit more. And I've also added it's a little chart down here.

Speaker 1: 7:42

Let me get a blue pen this thing is called the Mansfield RSI. It's kind of out of fashion. It's been around since the 70s, when people were drawing charts by hand. Seriously, it's what traders did. They would look up the newspaper what the stock price was yesterday, and then they draw their own charts. They look at the highs, the lows and they'd color it in and times. I'm sure I'm not quite that old if that's what you were thinking.

Speaker 1: 8:06

But what are we seeing here? That Mansfield RSI is starting to move up again, and to me, that is one of the rules I look at, one of the criteria of is this something that's moving in the right direction? So this, for me, is a check mark, but we're below the 50-day moving average line. For me, that's a fail. And I'm also not seeing enough volume, which for me is also a fail. So I've essentially got one out of three right. So I'm going to wait for the other two to be right, and that's when I'm going to buy stocks like NVIDIA or Palantir or others at these levels.

Speaker 1: 8:36

And if you want to actually understand that, like really understand that at a deep level where you could teach it to other people and help other people get financially free, then I'll give you the very rules, full explanation. Now I'm not going to do that here because it'll add 15 minutes to this video and some of you just want to know what's going on today and I know tens of thousands of you have already watched it. But you get access to it here FelixFriendsorg slash get free, and it's my cue for you to get free. It took me quite a few years to escape the corporate rat race and be able to make my money work for me, but I got there, and the only way I got there is by having these lovely people who actually taught me these rules. So you want to learn them? It's completely free of charge, head over right now to phoenixfriendsorg slash get free, and let me know that you're going to go and do that. Just write free in the chat and that way I know that you're actually determined and you're going to do it and you're going to learn everything that really matters.

Speaker 1: 9:31

Now. The real risk and I put this at the top is potentially a massive rally. So what's this based on? And you know, again, I asked somebody yesterday whether I should show this to the world and they said are you mad? No one's going to watch your channel if you show them chats like this. And I, as he's a friend he has a, anyway I shouldn't mention the name, but he has a YouTube channel and he's probably right. But I think you can handle it. I think you're a smart team if you're still here after all these charts and all this data, and I think you actually want to understand what institutions look at, because they're the guys with most of the money. So we need to understand that side of things.

Speaker 1: 10:14

Now, this is what we expect options dealers and the leveraged ETFs to do. So options dealers are the guys who basically run the market, market makers. Leveraged ETFs are ETFs, so exchange traded funds that are leveraged. So they're kind of crazily risky things. And what we're looking at is if the market goes up 3% or say 5%, or even 10%, can you see how much the market would go up by? Like 7%, or rather, the billions that they're going to buy would increase here by sorry, it's not percent, it's billions. So this is 7 billion If it goes up by 5%, they will buy about 13 billion, and if it goes up by 10%, they will buy about $13 billion, and if it goes up by 10%, they're going to buy $31 billion.

Speaker 1: 11:03

So why does that matter? Because understanding where the money flows is very, very useful. So what if the market goes down? Well, if it goes down 3%, they're selling only, say, $5 billion. If it goes down 5%, they're selling $7 billion. If it goes down 10%, they're selling $10 billion. So a lot of what the market is about and a lot of what the pros look at is they look at what's bigger, whereas the greater movement likely to be up would be a lot bigger. Because it's 31 billion up, it's only 10 billion down for the same movement. So essentially what this is showing you that hedge funds and options dealers and so on they've already sold. They've sold the most they've sold in years, in many, many years, quicker than ever, and therefore they haven't got that much left to sell. And that's a good thing, because if we do go up, they're going to buy a heck of a lot. They're going to catch up. On top of that, we'll also get the algo funds. They're going to buy a heck of a lot. They're going to catch up. On top of that will also be the algo funds, who are also going to buy potentially another $60 billion, and I showed you that chart yesterday.

Speaker 1: 12:04

If you want to watch that video from yesterday, I'll walk you through a lot of charts there. So to me, we don't know where the market bottom is. I always want to be super clear on that. Nobody can time it perfectly Impossible. People tell you they can do that. Well, they're either delusional or maybe worse. I'm not accusing anybody off that, but you know what I'm saying. Right, nobody knows where the bottom of the market is exactly, but what we can look at is like what's the upside risk but what's the downside risk? And right now it looks like we're sort of 80, 90% through the sell-off and the bottom is near, and that's as good as we'll ever know, based on the data like this. So what's the most important chart that I told you there would be? Actually? No, no, first of all there is a warning and then we're going to get to the most important chart of the world, and again, this is something I shouldn't be showing you.

Speaker 1: 12:57

Spx dealer gamma positioning. Felix, have you lost your marbles? What the heck does that mean I'm not going to explain to you everything about options and turn you into an options trader in three minutes. That's a little unrealistic. But what I can say to you is when gamma is big like this and negative like this, what does it mean? The markets will be very, very choppy.

Speaker 1: 13:22

So we go up, we go up a lot, we go down, we go down a lot. That's basically what it says. So they will chase and follow whatever movement there is and they will make the market more volatile. So again, if we do go up, we do get good news. The inflation data keeps coming in the way we want, jobs data keep coming in the way we want, jobs keep coming in the way we want. And Trump doesn't throw 15 or 20 spanners into the market, which, by the way, the market's getting used to. The reactions are becoming less big because we know it's probably going to get reversed tomorrow, and who cares? But if it does go up, they're going to buy a lot. So that's just my warning. But if they sell, they're also going to buy a lot. So that's just my warning. But if they sell, they're also going to sell a lot. So it's just. There is a little bit of this choppiness underlying the market, where we're going to see more volatility, which means more ups and more downs.

Speaker 1: 14:12

Now, this is the chart I want you to frame because I think it's the most important one there is out there. What you will see and this is sort of what inspired the thumbnail here today, this over here in blue so what is this? This is big tech PEs. So in blue we have oops, blue. Even In blue we have big tech PE, and PE is just price over earnings, so price over profit. I always think it should be called PP, but earnings sounds a bit fancier. And then you have, in green, the S&P without tech, and we kind of ignore that because really we care more about big tech.

Speaker 1: 14:50

On the left side, that dip here, that one that was COVID, that was the COVID crash. Covid crash and the COVID crash bottomed out around the P of 21 or something like that. But that was a world-ending monumental thing that was going to kill humanity and it's the worst thing since the Spanish flu and that sort of thing. Obviously, a lot of people did die and it was massively disruptive and it created 50 farmer billionaires. Yay, okay, worst thing since the Spanish flu and that sort of thing. Obviously, a lot of people did die and it was massively disruptive and it created 50 farmer billionaires, yay, okay, um, not a much enthusiasm for farmer billionaires. Apparently, I'm not one of those. I didn't invest in farmer shares. I thought it was too unethical. Sometimes I even I have a you know um um Morals, an ex-banker with morals. Go and arrest him. But what I'm saying is that the dip that we've seen here is pretty huge, and let me just get rid of my little red line there. What I'm saying is that look at where that dashed line is here, right, so yeah, we're not at the bottom of that, but the world isn't ending.

Speaker 1: 15:57

By the way, I know, if you're a Democrat, it might might feel like it, or if you're receiving usually millions of dollars from us aid or some sort of other um handout, then yes, it must feel terrible. I understand that. You see, there is a british politician whose wife he called rory something you brits can fill it in. You know that sort of tory chap and his wife was receiving a million dollars a year from us aid for a charity which does the following for afghan women it shows afghan women sort of weird distorted art, modern art. You know the kind of weird stuff like a TV that flickers weirdly. You know, when you go into a modern art gallery and you're like, oh, get away from me, that's what I'd show them, because the women in Afghanistan really need that. It's just a handout and it's just corruption. That's really all that is.

Speaker 1: 16:54

I'm not sure everything that USA did was that, but I'm just saying there are these cases, which is extraordinary, which is why some people are rather upset right now. I guess he seemed very upset. He did an interview about it he misses the million dollars. You know the house expansion and the third boat. You know he's got to pay for that. Somehow Should do a GoFundMe page.

Speaker 1: 17:14

Now, what am I saying? I'm saying that the dip we've had into the valuations they're pretty decent, right. So we're below all of the 2023 valuations here. We're below all of the 2020 2021 valuations. We've kind of reset the market, so big tech is looking pretty, pretty affordable here thanks to this rather large dip. That's what I I'm saying.

Speaker 1: 17:38

So you know, most of the comments will probably be about my take on politics there. Somebody accused me yesterday of being a Russian agent, and another one of being a far-right, and another one of being a Nazi. So I'm a far-right Russian communist fascist, apparently Very confused. So what are you going to do with that information? Well, the only way this is really going to ever make proper sense to you so you can actually implement this, and literally I, I invest for like an hour a week. It's a very, very, very, very low maintenance job. It's the best job I've ever had, best employee I've ever had is my money.

Speaker 1: 18:17

So what stocks do we buy now? Well, let me show you a little clever, neat thing that we have in Trade Vision here. So we show you for all of the major stocks there's a screener as well which ones are a buy. And look at these Apple is neutral. Nvidia neutral. Microsoft is neutral. Amazon is neutral.

Speaker 1: 18:35

What about some of the ones that really blown up yesterday? Like, wasn't there a Palantir down here somewhere? Here's Palantir up 7% yesterday neutral. Amd up 4%, neutral. Micron similar neutral. Gold's bullish Okay, so it's very little that's actually bullish and that's just because they're in this dip level.

Speaker 1: 18:57

That doesn't scream yet proper recovery and real bullish stocks. We haven't really got many, and most of them are gold related or some random ones obviously. So this is still a little early. This is still a little early. That's basically what that's saying to you, and the same could be applied if you look at the QQQ, and that's actually the place that I want to get to. What I wanted to get to today is I would buy and I said this yesterday and I am buying the index, and I'll tell you why. The index will never go to zero. The risk, if you have a long-term horizon, is low. Why? Because in the NASDAQ 100, there are how many stocks? I just rather gave that away, didn't I? There are 100 stocks in that. So say, one of them goes bankrupt, it doesn't become the Nasdaq 95, 99 even bankers and their maths. It doesn't become the Nasdaq 99. No, they'll add an extra stock into it and therefore it will once again become the Nasdaq 100, and you will now own a little bit of that extra stock.

Speaker 1: 20:03

So the beautiful thing about ETFs is that in a moment like this, where you don't really know which stock is going to go which way, because it's so volatile to buy the index below its long-term moving averages. And let me get rid of that yellow line there, so there's only one. Can you see that sort of shit-colored line there? Excuse my French Merde-colored line. That one Is how often do we touch that or go below that? Pretty rare, right. This is all of 2023 and all of 2024. Beginning of 2023, we're below it because everyone thought we were going to get a recession.

Speaker 1: 20:40

So buying below that has historically been a good place. If your horizon is long enough Now. If your horizon is Friday, don't bother. There are casinos. But if you are an investor and you're thinking, well, I'm going to put that money in there, it's my retirement, then you could do a lot worse than buying the QQQ or the SPY or VU or any other sort of major index. And or, if you were in Europe, you can use another ETF to do the same thing that tracks the S&P or the NASDAQ and you do pretty well in the long run. It's just historically, kind of statistically proven fact.

Speaker 1: 21:14

So that's what I would buy. I would buy the index. I wouldn't be buying individual stocks, because we just don't know whether there's a little spike up and there's a bigger, bigger drop down, just because Trump is very unpredictable, the orange one is very unpredictable and he has the power to do big things, bigly things even so. Therefore, one day doesn't make a rally. I do think we are near the bottom, but near the bottom isn't the bottom necessarily today. So even if we have another green day today, it doesn't mean it's the bottom. But I like buying the index near the bottom because it's just historically always been a very, very, very good thing to do if your time horizon is long enough.

Speaker 1: 21:58

So that's what I wanted to run you through um, short and sweet today, because, while my wi-fi connection is still not working, we should be back tomorrow. Uh, live properly. And in the meantime, I'm gonna go for dinner at um at new, you and I'm thinking about going wall climbing this evening, which could be fun. Um, and if you think, why evening? Because, uh, the moment I'm 12 hours ahead of New York. I'm in Hong Kong right now. So I wish you a beautiful day.

Speaker 1: 22:25

I hope you will take it upon yourself to improve your skills so that you are better prepared for the next step, which will inevitably come, and you're also better prepared for the next valley, because what most people miss on is the huge opportunities that we get every day or every week, certainly in the market, and they miss those opportunities because they don't know where to look and they don't know how to spot them, and they just don't know where to start. They're like 2,000, 6,000 stocks. And how do I know? Well, I give you exactly that playbook, that protocol, that system book, that protocol, that system. It's only three steps. It can take you 15 minutes to learn it. All you've got to do is head over to felixfrenzorg and get free. You get onto that path and get free. That's my wish for you. All the best.