Speaker 1 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream where well , we got some data out . Just that was meant to drive a rally this morning and guess what ? It hasn't materialized so far . So what I want to do instead is A understand that data and I want to show you the indicators that are pointing towards a near-market bottom , plus the things that might scare the bejesus out of us , because we need to see both sides of it right . You can't just go into it as a perma-optimist although I'm usually a perma-optimist but we gotta understand what's happening here in the

Pre-Market Data Overview

Speaker 1 0:34

short term , what trump just did , what the payroll data just did , what the fed's about to say literally today , and the key indicators to watch to be best prepared for what's coming so you can make the most money . Isn't that the goal ? Is that the goal for everybody ? If that's the goal for you , write um , well , write money in in the chat . Actually , I think that's probably the most appropriate thing we could be putting in there today , so write that in there . I'm going to share my screen with you here . This is pre-market tesla bleeding , nvidia and abgo rally . I've just made a whole video on the ABGO earnings which are outstanding , by the way and I will put that out after this video . So make sure you are subscribed . But overall it's not quite the green rebound we wanted .

Speaker 1 1:17

So let's walk through why and what Wallstreet was expecting , what we actually got here . So this is the data just out literally an hour ago or so . And what is it ? Nfp , non-farm payroll . It's sort of what Wall Street really looks at . Wall Street doesn't care that much about unemployment yeah , they don't really care about the little people , but they do care about its non-farm payrolls . And we're expecting that to come in around 160,000 jobs , which basically means new jobs created . We've got 151,000 . So you might think , ok , that's a little bit less , but what actually really matters is non-farm payrolls private , because we don't care that much about the government . We know that they're up to all sorts of things , firing people at right , left and centres . Well , funnily enough , the government actually created some jobs , believe it or not . 11,000 . Not sure whether that's a seasonal thing or something . I haven't looked into that it might be , I don't know parks or something like that . Anyway , the private sector was expecting to create 142,000 jobs . Created 140,000 . That's basically the same number , right ? So is that good news ? Is that bad news ? Well , it's just news , right , it's neither good , it's not neither bad . We're kind of exactly where we were .

Speaker 1 2:31

Now , of course , the media is going to focus on unemployment rate going up from 4% to 4.1% going . I am unemployment , the world's about to end . You know , walk around with a cardboard sign , sort of thing , but it's , it's , it's . It's not really relevant . It's like 0.1 . It's neither here nor there . Really , what we care about is the non-farm payroll data . The other bit of data that is useful is average hourly earnings , because if your earnings go up , well , it causes inflation . Right , it means , yes , you are better off , but you are doing it to the detriment of your fellow investors . And that also came at 0.3 . Last month was 0.4 . So this is a pretty decent data set .

Speaker 1 3:14

Right now , what was wall street expecting ? And that's always what really matters and you're in luck , I've got the actual expectation from Goldman Sachs . So they said if NFP comes in at 100 to 150,000 , the S&P will drop 0.75% , but if it comes at 150,000 to 200,000 , it's going to go up 1.25% . So what did we get ? Well , we got 151,000 . So we're basically right on the line of like do we go up , do we go down ? And it seems that they were actually right for once , because… .

Speaker 1 3:50

This is the S&P data came out here and we're basically trading at exactly the same level . I mean like pretty much exactly the same level . We're up very moderately 0.2% . Neither here nor there really Spiked up a little bit , came back . Now we seem to be coming up a little bit again . So the market's basically going eh , eh , that's it . That's the level of excitement we've got going there .

Speaker 1 4:14

So that make some sense . Does that make some sense ? If that makes some sense , um , write number one in the chat and I I see that you're actually alive and and well , and that this makes this makes some sense to you and it's landing for you , which is really what this is all about . So nicholas says that makes some sense . Brilliant , okay , you're first , my friend , I'd like to see it . David says one back , love . Brent says one . Um , okay , all the ones are coming in . Peaceful there . Mark in spain . Marcus one . I like that . You're writing that out , my friend . That's very classy . Make the bolts great again , yeah .

Speaker 1 4:52

So what do we therefore need to understand ? Well , the next question is like what do you buy , what do you sell ? Right , and my intention with this whole community is to give you not just the day's news and commentary on it , but actually give you rules and actually give you financial education , because , if you're honest with yourself , that's probably the one thing that's holding you back , right . Like I often ask , what are you most worried about ? Is it losing money or is it missing out on the next big opportunity ? And it's usually both , depending a little bit on the day . We can do something about both of those things if you actually understand the rules that Wall Street uses , that most successful traders use to actually decide when they buy and when they sell and we'll run through some examples in our favorite stocks in a moment here together .

Speaker 1 5:34

But ultimately , I want you to learn the rules so you don't need me anymore . That's really the intention here with that . So go get yourself to the rules . It's completely free . It'll take you 15 minutes to do . Felix , friends at oxlush , get free , and I'd much rather you leave this video right now and you go and watch that , because you'll actually learn skills and knowledge that you'll keep forever , that that have taken me like 13 years to acquire . Then hear the commentary on what's happening today in the market . So who's going to go and watch the learn the rules . If you're going to learn the rules , write rules in the chat , so I know you're actually going to go and take some action . It also will hold yourself , hold you accountable , because now you've told a 2000 people here , right ? Because now you've told 2,000 people here , right .

Speaker 1 6:17

Let me run you through a few indicators of where we are in terms of sentiment , in terms of you know , are we oversold ? Should we be bouncing off here , and so on . Brent , exactly , yes , three bonus minutes . So Monica is going to watch the rules , michael is . John has already watched it Brilliant . Neil says proof that you're not a bot . And , like the video , brian's going to watch it Fantastic . So I'm sure more of the 2,000 of you are actually going to watch that . But maybe you don't know how to type yet or maybe you haven't hit the subscribe button so you can type Now the Goldman Sachs US equity sentiment indicator .

Speaker 1 7:00

Equity is just a fancy word for stocks , by the way . It makes the bankers feel smarter , so they say equities . It's the same sort of thing . Seen it , brilliant , done . Rules . Watching all the stuff Okay , love you , seen it , brilliant , done . Rules . Watching all the stuff okay , love you guys for it . Um , watched it . Brilliant , okay .

Speaker 1 7:19

So the sentiment indicator you know we were , we were at like after the election , we were in like la la land , and right now we're at minus 0.4 . Now , is minus 0.4 really really low or really really high ? Well , it's sort of neither , isn't it ? We've been much lower , I mean 2022 , right after the covid collapse . Do you have to go that low ? No , you don't . I mean , sometimes you just do these little dips , right , sometimes you do big dips , but 2019 was a pretty , pretty significant one . So this doesn't really tell you . It just says we're further to the misery side of life than to the excited , exuberant side of life . So , you know , it actually makes me feel slightly more bullish , because we've come down a long way , right , like a really long way , and the last time we came down from such a high was literally 2017 , and then we just had a little little dip there , right ?

Speaker 1 8:12

Kevin , a new guy there , love the possibilities . I'm listening . Brilliant , kevin

Non-Farm Payroll Analysis

Speaker 1 8:16

, my friend . This is all about learning . It's all about skills , not about the lovely clickbait titles that we have fun with . This is really . I want to give you knowledge . That's really what this is all about .

Speaker 1 8:26

Now , this is a really fantastic chart , I think , and basically it shows what it shows that often what about these two charts ? Things rhyme , and in this case it's Trump 1.0 versus Trump 2.0 . Trump 2.0 is apparently much better looking I'm sure that's what he would say . So he looked a little bit tired , right . I saw some clips of him yesterday and his eyes are shutting a little bit , and he signed that crypto thing and he was like what's this all about ? I'm tired , I want to go to bed . And what happened the first time around ? Well , the first time is the green line here . And well , the market tanked right and then the market recovered and then basically continued to recover . And at the moment it's following pretty much exactly the same playbook , like tank the market first , with all the uncertainty and all the noise , and then , of course , we're hoping for recovery .

Speaker 1 9:23

So the question is when does the recovery come in ? Will it be in March , as it did last time ? The man got into the White House ? True life there . You have a point about the likes 200 likes . It's a harsh crowd today , isn't it ? I think that's what happens when the market's tipping and one's a bit frustrated like I'm not going to give that bastard a click .

Speaker 1 9:49

He talked about a stock the other day and it's down now . It's his fault . I get that . But let me give you some good news to cheer you up .

Speaker 1 9:56

You know I talk a lot about ctas , which are what ctas are ? Algo funds . So they're computers that trade , and they trade a lot of money um , a couple of trillion dollars , I think . And well , they sold last week 47 billion dollars , which didn't help . And this is from goldman sachs , by the way , goldman sachs gs . They say for this week , basically , yeah , by next week they say we're going to be exhausting the sale . So the beautiful thing here is that they're basically done selling , which means Monday could come in a little bit happier , because it's nice when $47 billion of stocks don't get sold in a week , right , but these idiotic algo funds . So a little bit of positive news here , right , I mean it's not amazing , it's just I'm just saying like one of the biggest sellers is stepping away from the selling board .

Speaker 1 10:55

Ok , here is something more positive . You know Wedbush , that colorful chap there from Wedbush . He's just added Tesla to their best ideas list , outperform rating , $550 price target , and he's saying we don't really care about any of it , car delivery numbers or any of that . All that we care about is self-driving . That's all he's saying . So they say we believe autonomous driving and Optimus represent 90% of the value of Tesla and it'll create a $2 trillion stock . Well , it's not me saying that of stock Wall Street . That's not me saying that .

Speaker 1 11:47

Now , who's gone over to watch the trading ? Have we lost some people yet to go watch and learn the three trading rules that Wall Street's been using literally for decades and that if you know it , you'll be able to spot breakouts forever and you'll know when to sell ? So you don't hold backs ? Who's watched that yet ? Who's going to go and watch it ? Let me know . Felix , friends and oxlash get free . The link is down below and fox is also very kindly posted in the chat here , which I will um pin to the top , and I just saw your question actually there , fox .

Speaker 1 12:11

Fox is asking about what do you think about the white house crypto announcement ? Well , I think it was pretty disappointing , because , well , what did they promise ? Well , he promised a national crypto reserve . Let's have a look at BTCUSD here and it's well . It's at 89,000 . It's not bad , but it's obviously not quite the bounce that people were hoping for here , and that's because they're not buying any Bitcoin . They're just saying all the Bitcoin that the government already owns is going to go into one central pot , and we're done . So he's ticked the box , but it's not what people wanted to hear . People wanted to hear that he's going to buy , you know , $100 billion worth of Bitcoin or something .

Speaker 1 12:59

Now it's with Bitcoin often sell the news and if that's what the US government wanted to do , they would have just bought the Bitcoin and then announced it . So you should have seen a significant rally , because why would you pre-announce it ? So you have to pay more for it , right ? That makes no sense . So maybe people were a little bit overly optimistic . I kind of thought it would be a sell the news type event , but either way , we're lingering around the $90,000 . I think , if you zoom out a little bit on Bitcoin , that isn't really such a bad place to be right , not such a terrible place to be . So I think we're going to be good on Bitcoin in the long run . That's my personal opinion on that . I don't have a lot of money in in it , but I have some money on options and so on .

Speaker 1 13:37

Now the other thing that wobbled the market yesterday this is um trump's uh commerce secretary here talking to besin , talking to bloomberg , and he said or he was asked um could be . He said could we be seeing this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit ? Sure ? Look , there's going to be a natural adjustment . As we move away from public spending , the market , the stock market , has become hooked and we've become addicted to this government spending . There's going to be a detox period .

Speaker 1 14:14

So what you're experiencing , folks , it's not a crash , it's not a dip , it's a detox , as in . It's good for you . Does it feel healthy ? Who does this feel healthy for ? Right , right , right Detox in the chat . So I know you're loving it , are you loving this detox ? And then he's asked you know there is no put . He said the Trump call on the upside is if we have good policies , then the markets will go up , and obviously that's a an options reference there . He's basically saying trump wants the market to go up , but we're going to do it through good policies , not through some sort of pumping stimulus , anything like that . So they seem happy and content with the uh , the present sort of weed out , the . You know the weak spots . And there are quite a few detox fans here Monica and Logan and Alpha Charlie . Very healthy . Okay Tox , you're liking it ? I need a detox .