Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on a day, well, where everything is a little bit red, and I want to explain to you why. Because wall street has just warned its favorite large clients about the way that they see it and things have really changed over there. Now, of course, they're not explaining it to you or to mainstream media because I guess they just don't care. I do those. I want to walk you through that. I also want to give you some good news. There is some good news here. Some not so great news on Tesla. Again, from coming from Wall Street, we've got massive job cuts coming. This just I want to explain now to you what that means and then round us up with a silver lining here, because there's always a silver lining, isn't there? That might be useful for you here. This is the outline. Then you're an investor and it would be useful for you Write investor in the chat. So I know that you're here and paying attention and that sort of thing, and you're going to get some real value out of this and we'll make more commentary just like this is. We're going to run through these five headlines here in a sense. So this is from JP Morgan. They send out these afternoon briefings to their institutional clients. But Winston, who's literally snoozing right behind me, he's got an inside track, so he gets his hands on this kind of stuff. And a bleeding investor like that, paul. This is what they just said.

Speaker 1: 1:19

So what happened yesterday? Well, yesterday the US president, trump, came out and said we're going to delay some tariffs by a month, mostly on autos and auto parts and a few other bits and bobs, and the market was like, yay, tariffs aren't coming after all. But once you realize the way Wall Street's been looking at this whole tariff thing, they got it all wrong, like really wrong. You're kind of starting to realize what's about to unroll here. So they said look, stocks finished higher today. This was yesterday, not today, sorry about that.

Speaker 1: 1:50

On on on lutnik's comments on the potential relief on canadian mexican tariffs. And yesterday's tariff comments were initially interpreted as we're going to meet in the middle. It's not going to be as bad as we think and potentially tariffs could be lower. But then he gave an interview to Bloomberg this morning and there was a White House press conference as well, basically saying we're going to keep the tariffs, we're going to have some exceptions, like for autos, and they then say does this ease any tariff risks in the near term? And they say we don't think so. While stocks seem more optimistic, we still face a high level of uncertainty. The auto tariffs is only delayed, it's not excluded.

Speaker 1: 2:36

Canadian officials said Canada won't scrap tariffs unless the US levies are lifted. So actually this is very little progress. It's just like kicking it down the road for a month right on some of the stuff Some Canadians in the house there and then they say look, there could be more escalation here because the tariffs have been. You know they're going to be put in place there. So we're basically seeing potential further escalation.

Speaker 1: 3:05

Now it's an odd move by Canada. I get the whole sort of nationalistic ground standing. But Canada exports. Something like 93% of its exports go to the US and about 2% of US exports go to Canada. So it's a war. It's like showing up with a sword to a gunfight. You are going to lose. So it's an odd one that they're picking.

Speaker 1: 3:27

Obviously it's politics that gets involved. From a pure economic point of view, the US has got the bigger gun pointed at the Canadians and I appreciate you Canadians. There's nothing political, it's just the reality. Right Like you are going to lose in this fight, and this is really important because this just and this explains how Wall Street's been looking at this new presidency and how they are very, very, very wrong. Thank you for signing up for the webinar Brilliant.

Speaker 1: 3:57

I was going to mention that in a second, which I will do. Wall Street has been thinking that Trump, being the negotiator that he is, is just using the tariffs to get stuff to get stuff. But in reality, it seems that Trump means what he says, in that he wants to tax countries imports and he wants to reduce spending and taxation at home. So they're basically saying that we now think that there is this reality that higher tariffs are actually going to be here to stay and that hasn't really been priced in. And that is why you're seeing the opening here this morning.

Speaker 1: 4:40

Right, everything is down. What's that little thing there that's green, a little finance stock, but yeah, it's pretty much everything is red here this morning Nvidia leading the pack with 3% down. Amazon down 2%. Tesla down 2.7%. The big retail stores down because they could get hit by tariffs. Walmart's apparently asking its Chinese suppliers to bear the cost of it. So that's kind of it. But Canada isn't starting this fight. Yeah, that doesn't really matter. It's sort of like you showed up somewhere, someone pointed a gun at you, started shooting and you were saying I don't want any part of this. Well, you're being shot at. So, yeah, I think people focus too much on who started it, who's right or wrong, and none of that really matters for economics, for finance, for investing. It really is about who's got the bigger gun here, and the US definitely has the bigger gun. So for Mexico and Canada, it's not a fight they're going to win.

Speaker 1: 5:41

Now, what would therefore be helpful? Well, what do we hold? What do we buy? What do we sell? Right, those are the questions. How do we protect ourselves? What if this gets a lot worse? Right, I'm not saying it will. I'll give you some positive items in a second, because I think we've actually come down quite far, but there is a chance that this could get worse. Even if this one doesn't get worse, there's a chance in six months or in 12 months very, very likely you're going to see a bigger dip, because that always is what helps.

Speaker 1: 6:15

So what do we do? Well, I thought we'd do something fun and something special, and I put a link down below to this as well. I'm going to run literally today, this evening, at 8.30pm New York time, a two-hour live masterclass. I'll teach you where do the profitable, successful investors and traders from Wall Street, where do they buy, how do they manage the risk, where do they sell? And then I also want to share this with you, because this is something that very, very, very few people understand is how do you hedge your portfolio, and I used to be a hedge fund strategist. Hedging basically means insuring so we can protect our money from a big fall, a big dip, and it doesn't actually cost us anything if you understand how to do that and fox gaming there.

Speaker 1: 7:02

Thanks very much for for putting the the message that the link into the chat. They are pinned to the to the chat as well, so you guys can just click on it and we're gonna have a lot of fun. It's completely. You can ask me lots of questions on a lot more technical stuff strategy, mindset. That's really my goal there is to give you the strategy, give you the mindset, give you the insurance so that you will forever after have the knowledge that took me like 13 years plus to acquire and a couple of hundred thousand dollars in mentors, and really break it down for you, this will work for you if you're a beginner. This will work for you if you're an investor or if you're a trader, it's basically all the same thing. So come and join me at 8.30 pm and yeah, for some of you you'll be asleep. Part of the world is unfortunately always asleep. So some of you guys in the UK, unless you want to be, join me at 1 a.

Speaker 1: 7:55

So what's the silver lining? I promised you a silver lining. Well, there is some here, and that is what they're doing is they're driving down certain things. By they I mean the US 70. Trump's target is 50. He says he wants $50 a barrel of oil and they're using that to beat inflation. So he says and the second part to this is that they're also driving down bond yields. So that's the dark blue line here.

Speaker 1: 8:39

This is another one of those lovely analysts who thought I'm going to make a chart with two lines on it. What colors should I pick? I've got the whole color chart. How about blue and blue, right? So that's what they did. These are the marvelous people you give your money to and you pay them high fees to, by the way. So we're at about 4.8% on the bond yields and now we're at 4.1 or so.

Speaker 1: 9:03

Why does that matter? Well, that's the actual interest rate, and when interest rates come down, what happens? Well, borrowing gets cheaper, mortgages get cheaper, car loans get cheaper. Also, investments get cheaper. So it's a very, very important and powerful thing if you want to stimulate the economy is to bring bond yields down and, of course, the lower inflation, the lower bond yields.

Speaker 1: 9:23

So this is something they're doing and this is intentional. This isn't a side effect. This is what they're actually doing. They're working on the Fed. Fed Chair Powell speaks later today, by the way, which is going to be important. Let's see if he gives us a little bit of an insight on how he views the current political madness there. Colorblind Chartist yes, that probably explains it. Blue's the only color madness I can ever feel. Yeah, that's about a woman fuzzy there.

Speaker 1: 9:49

Okay, let me give you a couple of additional positive items and let me know, by the way, if this makes some sense. If this makes some sense, put like the number one in the chat and I will know that you are. You know, this is sort of sinking in spy put volume, probably not. What you look at over your cornflakes in the mornings. What does it mean. Well, the higher it is, what does it mean? The more people are freaked out. Right, it's really really high. People think the market is about to collapse. So you have really high risk when people buy puts, put. This is like a form of insurance. Basically, thanks for the ones coming in there Lawrence and Mike and Lars and Nicholas and Brian and Rod and Mark in Spain. How's the weather in Spain? So what happens is when you are at these elevated levels, well, right now we're at the highest. We just had an all-time high yesterday. So people are maximum freaked out in predicting the crash. You know what happens when the previous spikes kicked in. They marked bottoms for the S&P 500. Not real bottoms, but market bottoms, if you know what I mean. So when we get really stretched, when everyone's really, really pessimistic, then this could be quite useful.

Speaker 1: 11:12

Now here's something else I wanted to show you, and I thought twice about showing you this because it's a little again. It's a little bit chattish, a little bit complicated. What have we got here? We've got in green, we've got consumer sentiment, and I would write, but I'm using my mouse, so you're going to have to this is consumer sentiment, consumer scent. We're going to leave it at that. And then, in purple, we In purple, we've got the NASDAQ Q writing with a mouse.

Speaker 1: 11:43

My pen misfired just QQQ. So what's the point here? Well, the point is that when you are at very low levels on consumer sentiment, where we are right now last time we were here, that level here right are right now, right last time we were here, that level here right. What happened to the the red or the the purplish qqq? Well, it went to the freaking moon, didn't it? And then you know, when you get these lows, it's typically, again, not a bad time to you know, nibble, um, not saying you should buy the dip, because you never know how deep the dip is, but but there's a lot of people hedging for that fear, and it typically implies that we are nearish the bottom rather than at the beginning of a sell-off, which is, I think, somewhat positive.