Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream. I'm a few minutes late because I looked at the pre-market and I fell off my chair. If you had a root canal scheduled for this morning, you are one of the lucky ones. Everybody else has to deal with Mr Market right now and I want to walk you through why the market is falling, tumbling, dipping, and what the silver lining is, because I'm one of those people who always sees a silver lining in everything, and there is a silver lining in this, and I think, if we're correctly set up for what's coming, we could actually make this the most brilliant month ever. Who is an investor out there who wants to make this the most brilliant month ever, despite of everything that's going on? Write investor in the chat, and I know that you are listening and paying attention. Buy that dipper, say some of you. So yeah, vix is definitely something we're looking at right now, but there's a bunch of stuff we could be looking at. But let me share my screen with you first and I'll walk you through. Can you see that? All right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so. Right. Investor, okay, some of you are putting investor investor. Yeah, you guys are awake Adam and Charlie and Mark and many of you are awake Brilliant, I love you for that.

Speaker 1: 1:12

Okay, this is the key data point that was out. That's scaring the bejesus out of people. And then, of course, also Trump put on his Halloween costume this morning and it is saying that we're going to get a 3% contraction in GDP. 3%, seriously. They think the market, the US economy, is going to collapse by 3%. I think that merits a red pen.

Speaker 1: 1:36

Now, who believes a recession is coming? If you believe a recession is coming, write recession in the chat and that way I know you are frightened. I want to know if you're frightened so I can unfrighten you. Anybody who thinks there is a recession coming here Well, you're seeing the headlines right? This, my friends, is what's causing the recession Now. The Fed employs I might be wrong on this, I think 4,000 economists. They have yet to predict anything correctly. Some of you guys are worried about recession. Some of you think that isn't a recession company. Cool.

Speaker 1: 2:15

What causes the recession? Well, imports, yes, imports of what? Fruit vegetables, that sort of thing. We're talking about that today. No gold. Imports of what fruit vegetables? That sort of thing? We're talking about that today. No gold, yeah, there is a huge amount of gold that has entered the us in recent weeks and that is causing a recession. How does that work? Well, the idiots at the fed sorry, the economists at the fed, but the same thing. I used to be an economist.

Speaker 1: 2:44

Gdp is made up of a bunch of stuff, one of which is exports, one of which is domestic consumption, and then they also detract a lot of stuff from that. They say no, no, if we have some of this, then that's a bad thing. So they deduct imports. So anything that gets imported into the US reduces the size of the economy, according to the numbnuts at the Fed. So when $30 billion worth of gold enters the US, that reduces the size of your economy? Of course it doesn't in the real world, but these are not real world people. Right, these are people who believe in random ass statistics and are very happy to use that statistic to tank the market. They probably bought some put options or something like that and, yes, possibly to fill the void at Fort Knox.

Speaker 1: 3:43

We don't need to go into the reasons why the gold's arriving, but we know it's arriving and we know that that import of gold is tanking the official GDP numbers, which is, of course, a load of bollocks. I mean really like a load of nonsense. Makes no sense whatsoever. But tell that to the Fed. And then the headlines, mainstream media. They don't know what the heck they're writing about, so they're just writing it and saying, oh my God, recession. So that's how you get into the recession panic.

Speaker 1: 4:09

Here's some. You can see the top of my screen. Okay, sorry about that, let me move that around a little bit. That's probably a little bit better. Yes, yes, yes, that's a little bit better. So I can see what you can see. Okay, so is that a little bit helpful? Does that feel a little bit more calming and collecting and you feel a little bit less freaked out? If it's a little helpful, right. Why helpful in the chat? So I know this is landing. This is also what we're spooked about.

Speaker 1: 4:41

Trump is officially kicked off the trade war. China, mexico and the sombrero Mexicans have now taxes on them. So we have 25% on Canada and Mexico goods. There's 10% on China. Canada has retaliated with 25% on a bunch of US goods. They might target energy, they say Mexico has put 25% on a bunch of US goods. They might target energy. They say Mexico has put 25% on US goods. Probably not that big of an impact, quite frankly. And China has put 15% on some US energy and they're announcing more on agricultural goods and that sort of thing. So, okay, calming I'm glad we're calming people down Absolutely brilliant Unemployment numbers this Friday.

Speaker 1: 5:24

Yeah, they're going to be shocking. I think they're going to be shocking. I think we'll create very, very few jobs and we'll create lots and lots of unemployed people and that'll be another spooky job that we need to think through. But before we think through that, this is data that nobody really sees unless they work on Wall Street, and these are expected algo fund flows, so CTAs we call them, and they're basically computers who trade the market and rarely make money, but they're a thing.

Speaker 1: 5:59

So algo funds basically buy and sell at certain levels. So when are they selling? Well, you don't care about all the markets in the world, I presume, but if the S&P is flat this week, they're selling 11 billion. If the Nasdaq is flat this week, they're selling 4 billion. The market, the S&P, sells off pretty harshly. This week they sell $24 billion, and then the NASDAQ about $5 billion. Now what if the market goes up a lot? What if you've got this miraculous recovery, some sort of pre-Easter miracle? Well, they're still selling $4 billion or $2 billion. So the algos are now very likely going to be a drag on the market. Now, where do they really, really, really really start to sell? And again, you might want to take a note of this yeah, this is the level 5897 on the S&P, below that they're going to accelerate this, so you're going to want to watch out for that level 5897.

Speaker 1: 6:58

Take a screenshot or write it down. Mildly helpful, says Nicholas Pereira. Okay, he's a tough man to please that, nicholas. Ok, so yes, oil is also a thing. So OPEC has announced that they are producing more oil because Trump pushed them to, which will do what It'll lower inflation. And if you think about all that stuff through there at the top right, all that hideous data, what is it actually going to do? Well, the economy officially slows down on the headline numbers, oil prices come down. Inflation is already at 1.4%. If you look at true inflation, well, you're going to get rate cuts. That's very, very, very simple and I want to look at that in a moment.

Speaker 1: 7:48

But a lot of you have been spooked. A lot of you have been sending me messages and I appreciate that, I think comments and emails and X and everywhere else you can reach me. So we're going to do something for you here, which is this Let me see if I what did I do there? I got the wrong banner, haven't I Wrong banners are all around me. Let me fix that for you. But basically, what I'm going to do is I'm going to run a live masterclass where not only will I teach you the rules as in what to buy and when to buy it and all that good stuff and when to sell it, but I'll throw in one thing more, because I think that's really, really important right now to keep everybody's spirits up and everybody safe.

Speaker 1: 8:33

It's hedging. So there's ways that we can hedge our portfolio, and hedging is basically like buying insurance. That's really what it is and you can do it. It's very easy, it's very cheap and it's a brilliant way to make yourself calmer, make yourself have some income in the moment that the market tanks, and it'll allow you just to sleep a little bit better and protect your family and your fortune and your plans and investments a heck of a lot better. And it's a very simple thing to do, and I'll show you how you can do it for free If you come and join me on Thursday, 8.30 pm, new York time, especially in the evening for some of you guys who've been saying Felix, we have jobs we can't always show up For when you do these type of sessions, so I'm excited for that.

Speaker 1: 9:16

Come and join me at felixfrenzelogcom. We're going to have 1,000 people on there, which will be brilliant, completely free of charge. It will be about maybe two hours and I will properly teach you not just my rules, but I will say I will also teach you as a bonus the big hedging lesson there about how do we insure ourselves. Edging lesson there about how do we insure ourselves. So come and sign up. Phoenixfenceorg slash webm. Now let me spook you out a little bit more, and that is this is a screenshot from Trade Vision, which is a little bit smaller. I appreciate you can get yourself a free trial to that if you haven't already. It's the app that we built and one of the things that we have.

Speaker 1: 9:55

We see we call it smart money trades. It's dark pool trades. So these are trades that are happening outside of the stock exchange, in private, and they tell you quite a lot because these are only institutions. And if you look at this morning, like literally the last couple of minutes here bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish, right and these are fairly sizable trades. You see that here they're millions, but there was one trade 17 hours ago 47 million dollars. That's a pretty big one even for wall street, and this is our how unusual this is. This is a very, very unusual setup, partially because of size. And they are bearish. So they're selling the s&p, they're selling the S&P, they're selling the SPY, so it gives you a little bit of a feel about how Wall Street's feeling. So it's a pretty useful indicator if you want to get a snapshot of exactly where everyone's at right now.

Speaker 1: 10:50

Can we have a five-minute break in between the two-hour masterclass Alpha? You need a bathroom break. Do you Popcorn to be handed out? Really, 2 hours, you need a break, right? So it's now the time to invest. Well, ok, let me walk you through some crucial things here. I think if we zoom out a little bit, that's always the best thing to do. If, in doubt, zoom out. Stock market will go up a lot in the long run and every dip has always been a buying opportunity, as long as you're buying the right things.

Speaker 1: 11:24

Now Trump seems to be doing something, and I know some of you love Trump. Some of you loathe Trump. I don't really care that much. I don't get to vote in the US, I don't live there. I focus more on what's the impact on our portfolios. What he seems to be doing is lowering the 10-year yields, which is essentially lowering interest rate, and that's actually happening. They've gone from about 5% down to about 4%. It's the biggest pen I could find. It's a bigly pen. And the point here is that he wants to lower mortgage costs because that'll drive the real estate economy up and he's a real real estate guy after all and it's not immediately going to boost equities, which is a posh word for stocks. So they're doing that. So they're essentially pushing down borrowing costs for the government, for private people, and that actually does positively impact the economy. So it's a pretty smart move. But it doesn't give you the oh my God, this feels amazing type feeling if you're a stock investor, because it doesn't impact stocks that much in the short term.

Speaker 1: 12:27

But for all the doom and gloom out there, where do I look for recession data? I don't look for the government, because the government cooks their books and their data, but private companies will talk about recessions on their earnings, calls your charts, for that often gets mentioned, and there is zero evidence of a recession in the US from the private sector. So there will be a government recession in the sense of the laying of lots of people, and Washington DC, apparently, is rather harshly hit, but in the private sector, the real world, there is no evidence of a recession. So, in my humble opinion, two-thirds to three-quarters through the bad news phase and the recovery will be just as sharp as the dip right now. And the dip right now is pretty unpleasant. If you haven't seen it here, this is pre-market. Nvidia is seriously down. This is pre-market 3%. Tesla is down 4%. Nvidia was down 8% yesterday. The big tech stocks are down. Most things are down right. Most things are feeling pretty unpleasant right now and the market overreacts in all directions.

Speaker 1: 13:38

It always has, it always will, because it's some sort of emotional voting thing. And how do we deal with that? Well, we learn how to deal with it. We learn how to use rules for buying and for selling. We learn how to protect and hedge our portfolio. And if you want to learn that and learn literally everything I learned in the last 13 years or so managing my money, come and join me on Thursday at 8.30 pm, new York time, and I'll teach you that.

Speaker 1: 14:02

And my real advice for today is this too shall soon pass, because it will like every dip, and every dip is always an opportunity, and people always look at it afterwards. You know what people are always saying. They're always saying, oh, if Palantir was only $65, I'd buy it, and then it drops to $65, and they don't buy it. It's hard to do so. You really require a system, a structure that you believe in and that you trust, rather than just the sort of emotional stuff that we tell ourselves that we're going to do, because we tend not to do those things, because it's pretty hard.