Speaker 1: 0:00

This might help Felix here, and good morning to you for this. Welcome to this pre-market live stream. I want to walk you through why the market crashed, what is next and what are the actual opportunities here today, with a mic, with sound, because that tends to help. I'm a little bit of a red glow today. Winston and I had a few friends, had a lovely little hike this morning, so we're looking a little bit. I don't know. I was going to say sand kissed, probably just crimson, because that was the color I turned to. So what actually happened yesterday? Would that be useful? If you understood what actually happened yesterday, would that make you feel more warm and fuzzy inside and maybe give you some real value. If it would then write value in the chat and I will know that you are alive and that you're listening and this is actually useful. Alpha, charlie, I'll be sending that email out just after this one. I was going to send it yesterday. It didn't get around to it, but it's coming. It's coming, don't worry. I promised it to you, so it's coming. Val, yusuf, mick and Brent and Patrick and Lars and Tim and Angela Brilliant, okay, I'm glad you guys are awake and alive. Let's run through it.

Speaker 1: 1:14

Then the retail basically got scared. Yes, if we look at the biggest retail stocks out there and this is from Goldman Sachs but invest in bankers with a big, warm, fuzzy heart. Their company logo is a kitten and their main activity is rescuing bunny rabbits they really care deeply about your portfolio. Yes, yes, they do. They would never want you to lose any money anyway. So what are the big names in there? They call it the meme portfolio. It's Palantir, it's Oklo, it's SMCI, it's Reddit and Kavanaugh.

Speaker 1: 1:54

And all those stocks took a massive tumble yesterday, and that's simply because retail started selling. Now, what happens once retail starts selling them, selling them. Now, what happens once retail starts selling them? Well, these lovely people on Wall Street know about it. How do they know about it? Well, all your trades get funneled through them. So if you use Robinhood or Schwab or any of the major brokers, they pay. Well, wall Street pays your broker good money.

Speaker 1: 2:24

Robinhood, I hood, I think. I'm not mistaken on that. I think it was 900 million dollars last year. They got for order flow payment. What does that mean? Well, your orders get routed through a lovely organization called citadel. They are all about rescuing orphans and, um, making sure you know families are looked after. They're the hedge funds. They're hedge funds. They're called market makers and, um, they therefore know what you're up to. Not saying that they would ever abuse that information in a way that would profit them. I'm sure they're just sending 900 million dollars to hood every year because, um, they feel like they're doing the right thing. So enough cynicism there this morning.

Speaker 1: 3:09

But it woke up, and this is according to Goldman Sachs. It seems to have woken up the HF shorties. What does HF stand for? Anybody? Hf HF. It stands for hedgies yes, hedge funds, those lovely caring people out there, and they basically heavily started shorting those stocks because they could see retailers panicking and they jump on board. So it gets worse and worse and worse and worse. Hurricane relief yes, that's another one of their big things. Absolutely, they're really also all out for the furry creatures and hurricanes. Now, it doesn't mean it's all over. It doesn't mean it's the end of the world. Well, not quite.

Speaker 1: 3:54

I want you to understand the…. I think I read five reasons. I think it's actually three or four. I think I'm counting anchors. We struggle with small numbers. So what does Corbin Sachs say about? What are the actual, real reasons why we got scared yesterday.

Speaker 1: 4:12

Okay, a couple of pieces of data. And I want us to look at what's going on with Palantir and look at the charts and show you something very, very cool. And consumers, that's you, especially if you're American. That's really very much you. Consumers that's that's you, especially if you're american. That's really very much you. Apparently, your assessment, how you see the labor market it fell for the first time in four months and business conditions also fell for the second consecutive month.

Speaker 1: 4:40

Now this data, I can tell you, is going to be evenly split between republicans yeah, economic data is now political, you know political, and Democrats and Republicans are at the moment going woohoo, right, and Democrats are like it's the end of the world, it's all over Now. Both are probably wrong. I mean, one is probably too euphoric and one is probably too suicidal. But if you look at the Dems, they are what holds down all these quizzes at the moment that are out there. So I'm taking the consumer assessment with a bit of a pinch of salt. Why? Because the Republicans are the majority. I know it's not a popular thing to say, but it's, of course, the truth, right. So they are present, the majority. So I would probably put a slightly more positive spin on expectations than what we're actually seeing in reality, and I think a lot of this is just like people just feel grumpy. They lost the election. Give them a few months and they'll start to warm up, I think.

Speaker 1: 5:42

So what do we therefore do with all that information? Well, wouldn't it be lovely if you knew exactly what you would do with that information? Wouldn't it be helpful if you knew exactly what you should buy today and whether you should have gotten out of certain things? You wouldn't feel you know what do I do. What do I do? What do I do?

Speaker 1: 5:59

Most people feel we run like a two-hour live session, like yesterday, which was really good fun and I love all you guys for showing up and learning. But there is also a very, very brief version of this, which is a 15-minute version, and it'll give you basically the rules in just 15 minutes. So if you want to leave the stream right now and head over to felixfrenzorg slash, get free. You actually get free. You'll learn the three rules to better writing, which is basically how to spot breakouts and where do we exit, and it's all there for the taking. Much, much more important than actually understanding the minutiae of what drives the market today, because if you understand the rules and the systems, then you can start to spot the patterns, and it means you start to see the patterns before they really unfold and therefore you're in a better position to take advantage of them, and your portfolio should thank you for it. So anybody with a few expensive options get free. The link is also down below in the description and Fox Gaming my friend has already spammed it all over the chat here. Thank you very much for that, and I know some of you are spotting breakouts. We're going to look at the breakouts in a second. Adrian and Alphons says you get three bonus minutes. Yes, yes, that's a good way of looking at that. Apparently, the masterclass isn't 15 minutes, it's 18 minutes, so it's 15 minutes plus three bonus minutes on top.

Speaker 1: 7:23

Now, okay, fact number two it is the small business CapEx. What the heck is CapEx? It's capital expenditure, which is basically investment. Right, it's investment by companies. It fell seven points, a largest decline in 30 years. Why is that? Yes, my friend, we've got to look at Target in a second, but let me get through the core stuff here first.

Speaker 1: 7:57

Well, small businesses are probably concerned about what? Tariffs? Because it might affect them more than others. A lot of small businesses are wholesalers and importers and exporters and so on, and they might definitely get hit by that, and they're also unsure about taxes and regulation and they're just a little bit feeling a little bit iffy. There's probably a politics element there too, but they're one thing that makes regular ordinary people who actually work in small business a lot of people work in small businesses make them feel a little bit less secure and therefore they might just pull out, know, volunteer if it drops 20%, not unreasonable.

Speaker 1: 8:37

And then there's this fact number three from Goldman Sachs. They're saying there is a loss of euphoria. After the election, a lot of people were very like oh my God, if this is going to go up, it's going to be the greatest in the history of the stock market and everything will be fixed in week one. And then of course, the reality is kicking in that it takes time to fix things. Government, if you think it's fixing, if you think they're screwing it all up, then it's going to be longer pain. It's basically death by paper cuts rather than the one sort of axe into the neck. So, as Goldman puts it, we enter a period of heightened volatility, which just means the market doesn't do this. It does that right, and more of that also for next week. I'll get into that in a second.

Speaker 1: 9:23

The tariff extension for Canada and the Snow Mexicans other way around, isn't it? These sombrero Canadians is coming to an end shortly. We have a US budget debt ceiling fight definitely coming up. There are april tariffs allegedly to be imposed on european goods and maybe other countries, and then we also have earnings, video earnings coming up and things like that. So there's a lot of stuff here that's definitely concerning United Health as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah, they're coming for them. They're coming for them, and I think it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people. So this is important.

Speaker 1: 10:04

Now, before I get to the good news on crypto, there is a fourth item here. That is, today is a glorious Friday. You had not realized this, and what happens on glorious Fridays? It's the third Friday of the month. It has particular religious meaning. Apparently. It has religious meaning to options traders. Why? Because we have some absurd amount of options expiring today, and what do lots of options do? Well, I often show you charts like this right, and we have a support line. We have a resistance line. Well, if I pull up the S&P, or maybe it's QQQ, nasdaq, because maybe that's what most of you are probably invested in some form into the NASDAQ stocks, right? So if you look at the support resistance here, what's actually been going on is we've been trading kind of sideways, right Sideways, and there is resistance at 540, there's support at 520, which means at 520, market makers, they buy At 540, they start to sell. It keeps us very nicely in this sort of sideways pattern. They start to sell. It keeps us very nicely in this sort of sideways pattern.

Speaker 1: 11:18

After today, the third Friday of the month, all these options expire and these options have this impact on the market, which means next week the market could do this or it could do that. It just is able to move more freely and that could be a good thing. It could be a bad thing. Nobody knows that, bill. You just know that it's going to move more. Oh, and you can make money out of knowing that if you, if you know how, right. So that's one thing here. But is it all? Is it all over? Is it is it all? Um, you know the end of the world? Should we just jump off the nearest ledge? If we can find one? Please don't, unless the ledge is only about sort of an inch off the floor or so, in which case you may. That should be safe.

Speaker 1: 11:59

There is good news coming out of the US government, and that is that there's been a legal case a lawsuit, as you might call it against Coinbase, which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world by far, and they were basically saying you guys are an unlicensed, illegal broker because you are handling securities. Now, crypto is actually technically not a security. A security is something like a stock or like a bond. Crypto isn't that. So Coinbase was there saying no, we're not a broker, therefore, we don't need a brokerage line. Apparently, this lawsuit is about to be withdrawn, which means the US government no longer hates crypto, and it's a big deal. This is what Coinbase CEO says. If this goes through, it's a really big deal, not just for us, but for the whole crypto industry, and it just means we are entering a period of.

Speaker 1: 12:54

You know, everybody loves, loves crypto. Now you might think that would be good for bitcoin. Look, uh, yeah, 0.8 percent up today. It's, it's, it's sort of yeah, it's almost at a hundred thousand, which is pretty good. Right on that news. So why does that matter? Because it's an indicator of are we feeling more bullish? Right, and consumers need something to feel a little bit more bullish. As retail people, a lot of us have crypto. This is also very bullish.

Speaker 1: 13:24

Ark Cathy's little I was going to say sort of fund slash fund, but you know that nice fund that they run to make people lose sleep. Arc k so far this year it's up 12.7 percent, which is three times the s&p and it's four times the nasdaq. What does that mean? Risk is back. Baby risk is back. And I was actually looking at arc with some of you guys a couple of days ago and I was like this looks like it wants to break out. Let's have a look at whether it has broken out yet, because when it does, I'm going to buy some of it, not because I like it or want to own it in the long term. I just think this is the sort of asset that will boom once money shredding stops, once interest rates come down further. So no breakouts so far, but it's actually.

Speaker 1: 14:19

We had one here. We had one in November. That was a pretty good call at 56. But it's looking kind of positive. Looking pretty positive and those of you who've watched the masterclass, you will. You will recognize the zigzag thing here. Right, that's going on there and you might sort of say, okay, yeah, it's moving up. The only thing that we're missing is, well, volume, anything we're missing. The last breakout over here, that one, we had a lot of volume, a lot of volume. We haven't got any volume. So I'll wait for the volume and I shall be buying some ARC-K. I shall not hold it for very.