Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast
Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. Felix — alongside his golden retriever Winston — interprets the economy and markets.
Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast
Felix Prehn - Banks Just Told Big Clients to STOP + Stock Market News 14 February 2025 (Goat Academy)
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Investment Market Trends Analysis and Insights
Speaker 1Felix and , of course , winston here . And Winston just explained to me that Goldman Sachs , one of the most important investment bankers in the world , just told their clients to do what Stop ? And why you're wondering ? Well , there's a bunch of reasons for that Disruption , geopolitics and tariffs . What was the third one ? A tricky inflation environment , winston just whispered to me . And what does that actually mean ?
Speaker 1Well , if you want to understand that because it's insanely important and also understand what we are buying and selling today and why the headline data today , the news items you're seeing about retail sales crashing which is what the story is right now this morning , is complete nonsense , then stick around . You got a cough , have you ? Winston has a cough ? Oh dear , you want to stick around and understand that ? Then say I do , put it in the live chat and Winston will break it down for you here , as he's lying down on the sofa . The camera angle doesn't quite get him there , so let me share my screen with you . And there we go . That's not the right one . Right one One either . All right , here we are . So let me find a pen , if I can . Oh dear , there's no pen today . There's no pen today . All right , we shall have to um , get our go on with that one . I do , I do , I do . Uh , so what does this really mean ? Well , let me walk you through . Walk you through . This was my intention .
Speaker 1Remember this headline nvidia shares are no longer bulletproof . Deep seek fears linger , apparently deeply , so that was one thing that scared the market , but the market hasn't really moved all that much . Right , have a look at . This is pre-market , by the way . But if you have a look at where we are right now with Nvidia , is it all over ? Is it completely collapsed and crashed ? It's trading where it was in the middle of December or where it was in November , october , and it hasn't really moved all that much , especially where it was in mid-January . There seems to be some resilience here . We need to understand .
Speaker 1And then next we've got this . Do you remember the inflation data that we just got out , when everybody freaked out a day or so ago about inflation , and this is the 10-year us treasury yield , which is basically our higher interest rates , and they kind of really really went to the highest points we'd seen in over a year ? I really do wish I had a pen and see it , and see it once , one second . There we go . We risked it all and now we've lost the camera , haven't we ? Brilliant , absolutely brilliant .
Speaker 1What did we do , winston ? What did we do ? Do Winston ? What did we do ? We've frozen me . Interesting , I didn't know we could do that . Give me a second .
Speaker 1While technology keeps us occupied , what did I do ? Something , didn't I ? Clearly , let's see if we're back . Okay , while I keep walking you through what's going on here anyway , it's probably more important that you see me than that you see . I mean , sorry , that's not what I meant . You know what I meant . Let me activate . Okay , that looks better . Okay , camera resumed .
Speaker 1So , basically , we were really worried about inflation just a couple of days ago . So , yeah , smash the like buttons for tech induced entertainment around here . This is what happens when you give a call to the tree by the mixing board . I know , I know , I know he's still here . Yet around here , this is what happens when you give a call on the tree by the mixing board . I know , I know , I know he's still . He's still here . Yet , and this is important retail keeps buying .
Speaker 1That's um , the degenerates , like you , keep buying shares , and that's a good thing . And we've also just got into this sweet spot . For what buybacks ? Anybody remember , anybody remember me sharing this particular chart with you ? Annual share buybacks this year are expected to be 1.16 trillion like the real trillions Pretty staggering amount of money , and that , of course , is very , very supportive of the market . So that's probably coming back .
Speaker 1Felix dropped the soap , fox , fox naughty . So what does it all mean ? Well , it means what they're actually saying to their customers , the big investors out there who give Goldman Sachs money . They're saying stop selling . And what's just happened is a complete flip of what we've seen the last six weeks or so . Hedge funds , who are their clients , the hedgies , have started to buy , which is very , very good , and what I've been saying the last week or so is just like sentiment's so bad . I think this is becoming an opportunity and I think we're basically there now , which is definitely very , very good . Um , some of my friends that you said haven't got the big c email . Yeah , everybody got it , my friend um , drop me an email and we'll reply to yours . I'm sure your spam filter ate it up .
Speaker 1So the question then becomes well , what do we actually then go out and buy , right , what are the stocks that we're buying today ? And people are throwing out all sorts of things that are moving up a lot today , and there are Soundtel , for example , that got hit hard right . So I asked you at the beginning here what are your fears ? And for most of you it's actually missing opportunities , which is interesting , because I kind of think that's a good one , I think that's actually quite a positive one , and the problem with that is that most people then just FOMO by whatever has just gone up right , and that isn't always a good thing to do .
Speaker 1And I want to therefore teach you what are the big opportunities to buy , what are the breakouts , before we get them and Fox just kindly shared the link there for it how we do that , and you can literally learn that in like 15 minutes 15 minutes all you need , and there's a masterclass . It's pre-recorded , you can play it anytime . You can play it right now or at the end of this video and you will actually learn how we bought those breakouts and therefore how we make a lot of money . And it's beautiful stocks like Palantir , for example , which is looking pretty sweet and strong right now . Well , it's down zero point factor . So , neither here nor there , if you turn on a little breakout indicator , you get a feel of what these are right , but you don't know why they're there and you don't know how to act when you see them and you don't know when to sell , and that's really a problem . So breakouts are great if you have the tool to find them like trade vision here but you still need to understand how they work and why . If you don't , you're going to fall on your face . I'd strongly encourage you to literally leave this video right now . Go bugger off and watch that masterclass at felixfrenzelogcom , because that matters a lot more than what I'm about to tell you Now .
Speaker 1I am , however , going to give you a but , and the reason for that is because I have my daily dose of electrolytes . Alpha is saying the master has 18 minutes , not 15 minutes . Alpha , you must be a very happy chap , but it's quite good to be pedantic . Actually , as an investor and as a trader , being pedantic is quite a good skill , so I congratulate you on that . You know ACD never hurt nobody . Fun flows are very , very good , and I told you this in December , I told you this in January . They're very , very good until the middle of February , and after the middle of February , fund flows do what Less money enters the market . It's just that March also isn't very good . That's just typically the way it works . So that's the warning , and the reason I tell you that is because people are going to FOMO , buy into whatever . It is 18 minutes for the price of 15 . Paul , I like you . You're hired Exactly . You get three bonus minutes if you watch the masterclass .
Speaker 1We always need to be prepared for the unexpected . And if you think about all the geopolitical things that are happening right now I mean literally just in the last 24 hours , what's happening ? Right , there is potentially an end to the Ukraine war . Vice president is in Europe . Europe is going to spend the upper . Russianics in Europe are going to spend more on defense . Someone's going to have to pay for that . Then we've got the Middle East right On Saturday .
Speaker 1Trump's deadlines over Hamas right , that's a whole thing , and that'll affect shipping , that'll affect logistics . That'll affect , obviously , lots of things . India , which is a huge economy the Indian president was just in the US . India also has the highest tariffs of any major nation in the world . Trump stood next to the Indian president and said we're going to slap those tariffs on you too . Right , that's disruptive and we're going to get tariffs all around us . They will be everywhere we go and they'll be reciprocal . They'll be on European goods . Europe sort of says we got low tariffs right , but Europe has a 20% VAT on all goods brought in . That's a 20% tariff . It's probably about a 30% tariff on everything that comes into Europe . So if the US does that , wow , there's going to be some disruption . And then there's a lot of other stuff that's going on at the same time .
Speaker 1So RFK just confirmed new health secretary . Well , what's pharma going to do ? He ran his whole campaign saying I will ban pharma ads on TV , for example . Do you think pharma stocks are going to like it ? So there's a lot of stuff that's happening here and it's going to cause some uncertainty . And for that you always need to have what you need to have risk management . That's the second part you get in the masterclass . That's the extra three bonus minutes .
Global Tariffs and Retail Sales Trends
Speaker 1Australia has zero tariffs . Is that true ? No , that actually isn't true . Sorry , that isn't true at all , because I have a wine business and we used to try and sell wines into Australia and it's almost impossible because your tariffs are so freaking high that it becomes . You know , you have very , very heavy protectors , for example , of agricultural goods . It's just not true . Most countries have tariffs . Most countries also have hidden tariffs and regulations and other taxes and so on . So now you got out of the way .
Speaker 1Let me talk to you about retail sales data . So we've got that little feature now in Trade Vision , which is super cool . We have an events tab now , like it'll pop that up for you here . The top it'll say upcoming events we keep telling you all the other marvelous things that we're releasing and you can click on that and you see events and retail sales . And I've got a filter on here for you know the most important stuff and you can filter by country and even if you live in somewhere really irrelevant , you can still put your country in there . But mostly it's the us we care about and retail sales data came in at minus 0.9 . We were expecting it to be 0.1 . That's pretty bad , pretty bad right .
Speaker 1So you might be thinking oh my god , retail in the us is collapsing . Oh my god , I'm sure nike is collapsing . What are they ? Where is retail on here ? Consumer services seeing any big collapse ? Right , where you're not seeing any collapse . Walmart's up amazon . What are they ? Where is retail on here ? Consumer services Seeing any big collapse ? Right ? Well , you're not seeing any collapse . Walmart's up . Amazon is sort of sideways . Not a lot going on there , so why isn't it collapsing ? No-transcript .
