Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this morning's pre-market live stream. I want to talk about Palantir's extraordinary earnings and story. I want to talk about PayPal's. Well, the market hates it. Earnings doesn't mean necessarily the full story. Of course. We're going to talk tariffs, because that story isn't over yet, or anywhere near over. And then we're also getting today apparently the biggest crypto announcement in the history of crypto announcements. So lots to look at, lots to talk to through. Markets are stabilized somewhat, as both Mexico and the Snow Mexicans went down on their knees and said we realize you are 30 times bigger. It's probably a good idea to just cave in, which is a smart thing to do. China has put tariffs on us goods not quite as extreme as feared, but again to walk through that.

Speaker 1: 0:50

So, first of all here, who's happy about palantir? Who actually? What's the first price you bought palantir at? For me, 20 bucks. This year I bought my first palantir for 20 bucks, which was pretty horrible for a while. Um, it's one of those breakout classics and then it absolutely collapsed.

Speaker 1: 1:08

Put it in the chat down below and let me know what you, what you? You know the your entry price to palantir, or maybe you missed the whole thing. Maybe you missed the whole thing got 16, okay. 20, 26, 13, 8, wow, okay, you were early. 7 or maybe late. It was also good 66. Okay, you're a late one, but you were happy, aren't you? 49. That's actually a pretty good entry point, if I think you entered where I thought you entered. Okay, cool, a lot of you guys holding Palantir here. Okay, I'm going to put out a whole full here because this is more of a general pre-market what's happening today thing, but just a couple of numbers here. Revenue growth was insane, um. Guidance is insane. Um, custom accounts like doubled. They just absolutely knocked it out of the park and they're saying that they are constrained by lack of engineers so they could do more if they had more people. It's just really, really like they're basically saying 2025 is going to be amazing.

Speaker 1: 2:13

So Palantir trading right now? Where Where's it trading right now? At $103. And, by the way, trade Vision you know we have a thing that I always talk about breakouts, right, and I always say, hey, go learn breakouts, and I do really mean that. But we kind of codified my rules to kind of identify breakouts and just look at these, look at these breakouts there that we spotted here at 35, the last one here at 52 pretty good calls right now, in itself no indicator and you can talk a lot on. And trade vision here as if there's a free trial as a link down below felix president.

Speaker 1: 2:42

Trade vision Now in itself no indicator and you can talk a lot on Trade Vision. Here there's a free trial. There's a link down below Felix Frenzel, dr Trade Vision and we built this right. So the point of this is actually it's a screener. I don't buy every breakout that's in there, because you need to understand a little bit more about it. If you just use the indicator, you won't have real, you won't be confident and you probably won't act on the good ones and you probably act on the bad ones. So I still think it's required to learn it at this point. But it definitely saves me a ton of time. It means I literally used to go through about 2000 stocks a week and I don't do that anymore. I just look at about five a day, which is what trade vision spits me out. So get yourself a trial to trade vision because it makes some really good calls. But then you still need to have confidence in what you're looking at and you need to also have really, really good risk management. That's actually where you make your money. So if you want to follow up on that, then go watch the masterclass. That will actually give you quite a lot of stuff. Already. Felixfrenzelcom Get free.

Speaker 1: 3:45

Paypal may offset Palantir for today. Well, let's talk about that in a second as well. Here we are. Here are the numbers. So they beat on earnings. Can we have a pen? Microsoft? Are we allowed? Let me see. So it's got a green pen. They beat on earnings, they beat on revenue and they authorized 15 billion in buybacks 15 billion. We'll come back to that in a second.

Speaker 1: 4:13

Now, why are they down? Margins are down a little bit. User accounts actually growing. There's a lot of good stuff in there and I'll show you what the CEO just posted. Alex just posted this. He said look, we returned to profitable growth. Transaction margin dollars are up. Us brand that check out is accelerating. Brain Tree is actually bringing in money for the first time ever. Venmo is bringing in money 20% growth there. Inflection Point and Active Accounts are actually growing again. Remember, this is a stock that's like down in the dumps, right. The Stronger Mender we've created sets us up well for 2025, which is about scaling adoption.

Speaker 1: 4:49

Excited to share more at the Investor Day later this month. Pretty positive, but still a CEO knee-deep in the mud. He's still shoveling. What's really exciting is this Not only do we have the $15 billion stock repurchase program, but we also have $4.86 billion remaining. Now that's basically called a $20 billion for easy maths.

Speaker 1: 5:21

I can't handle complicated numbers. You know what the market cap is of PayPal. It's about $90 billion. So this is buybacks and this is market cap. So they're going to buy back. What is that? I can't do numbers 20 over 90. 22% of the company, 22% of the shares are going to disappear. You think the stock's going to collapse Just throwing that out there.

Speaker 1: 5:51

So I'm enjoying this reaction on PayPal today. I think it's absolutely amazing. It's down 9% and I'm going to set up a trade on this. There is a classic trade we can do after earnings, when a company overreacts on the way down, and a bunch of things you could do. You could put. You could just sell puts. There's a bunch of things you could do. Don't do that. That was just an example on something else. So am I excited about this? Am I excited about this? I'm actually really excited about this. This is a lovely opportunity to get some, in my opinion, very, very, very low risk money. But I leave it up to you. Obviously, don't follow what I'm doing. It's because I'm doing it, obviously. You just understand that if you're still alive, when the market's open properly, I might set it up and I'll show you what I'm setting up, but only if you promise me that you won't copy it blindly, because that's fairly moronic.

Speaker 1: 6:45

Now, tariffs the tariff story isn't over. It's going to come back. Trump actually wants to raise money through tariffs. He isn't just going to give in because trudeau came over with a, with a, with a mug of maple syrup or something you know. So both Mexico and Canada are sending 10,000 soldiers to the border, which seems weird because the Mexican border is about this long, the Canadian border is about that long. So I think you need a lot more soldiers to manage the Canadian border, but that's a different story and they're going to sort of crack down on fentanyl. Apparently I still think there will be tariffs because unless yeah, I still think there will be tariffs I think the US will put tariffs on Mexico, definitely on Mexico. Canada not quite so important I would say Maybe just keep that 10% on the oil stuff. The rest isn't really that relevant.

Speaker 1: 7:32

Now, what about China, as Trump says? Well, the US put tariffs on about $525 billion worth of goods and China came back with retaliation, and they did only $14 billion, and that's restraint. That's maybe reasonable, maybe it's smart, but it's certainly restraint. So the market's quite liking that that they're not coming back for sort of tit for tat, and this is pre-market. It's looking okay, right, looking stable, at least Stable, with the exception, I think, of PayPal. Where is PayPal? Can we find? It Must be a really red box somewhere. I can't find it so good. Yes, stabilizing, yes, and I think we now also know a lot more about the playbook here that when there is another dip because of another tariff spat and there will be then I'm just going to buy the dip a bit more willingly, because we've seen three large countries go pretty gentle on this. So that's kind of what we expect. Palantir now has the market cap of Coke. Okay, I just read Coke and I was like what Aruna says we have no problems with our borders. Okay, I have no idea. I have absolutely no idea whatsoever with the Canadian. I'm assuming you're in Canada, aruna, are you? I'm assuming you're referring to that border, because the US does seem to have some border issues Now.

Speaker 1: 8:58

Now, this is an announcement that I haven't really seen that much in the mainstream media and it's really, really weird because it's the biggest thing that's been announced, I'd say, in decades. And what is it? Well, it's a US government investment fund. So it's a sovereign fund wealth fund. And what's a sovereign wealth fund? I mentioned this today to somebody and I got a blank look and they were like a what it's basically an investor. It's like a portfolio, like you have a portfolio, right, I have a portfolio. You have a portfolio and you take money and you put it in, you invest it in things.

Speaker 1: 9:40

Governments don't do that very much and it's weird, if you think this through. So Singapore does it, the United Arab Emirates does it, norway famously does it, china does it you know there are a lot of examples and they basically take money from the taxpayers essentially government money and then they invest it and then the money grows and, if you think this through for a second, the government can borrow. Because this is really really important, this is going to have such an impact on the stock market. I really want to explain this. The government can borrow at the moment at about 4%. Now the stock market last year went up. How much? Anyone, anybody, anybody remember how much the stock market went up last week, last month, last year, last year, not last week, last year 25%. So if you can borrow at 5% 4%, then you could get 25%. That was a good year. On average, it's been 12% the last 10 years. But if you can borrow at 4%, you can get 12%. Well, that would solve your debt problems, wouldn't it?

Speaker 1: 10:36

Let me show you the math, and this is the fundamentals of investing. So this works, right. So your initial investment is zero, right? You got no money at all in the fund. Let's say you're going to get 12% per year because you're just buying the S&P and I'm sure they're going to invest in other things as well. And let's say you're going to do it only for four years, because the Donald only has four years Now.

Speaker 1: 10:59

Elon's teenagers and the treasury are saving about $4 billion a day at the moment. Say you take $1 billion of that a day. So in a week this is a weekly setup here in a week you're investing $7 billion. One, two, three, one, two, three, one, two, three. Right, how much money do you think that is over four years.

Speaker 1: 11:17

I'll take some guesses here. How much money do you think that is? How much money is a billion dollars a day invested for four years at 12%? Any thoughts? Four years at 12% Any thoughts? Any thoughts? Scott says $400. I don't think you meant that, scott, right? Well, yeah, I mean, if the IRS gets a hand on it, $10.5 billion, a trillion. Okay, let me hit the button. I hit the calculate button, you can see it $1. A trillion. Okay, let me hit the button. I hit the calculate button, you can see it 1.8 trillion. So you put in 1.4 trillion and you got 400 trillion for free. That's the market returns.

Speaker 1: 12:02

Now let's say this thing catches on and let's say this happens for 12 years. Right? Let's say you get another president just two terms who's also on this playbook. How much money do you think? That is 9 trillion. You only put in 4 trillion. You got 5 trillion for free. Can you see how this actually solves the debt problem? And you know what it also does? Because if we just go back to the, you know in one year, in one year, it's 386 billion right Now.

Speaker 1: 12:36

Buybacks, which is the biggest buyer of stocks, buybacks by about 1.1 trillion this year. So if you add it to the existing 1.1 trillion buybacks, which is the biggest buyer of stocks out there. If you add, say, call it, $400 billion in government money, it could be a lot more right. You could be a lot more aggressive about this. You could put in double. What do you think that's going to do to stock prices? You've created probably the second biggest buyer of investments in American companies. What are you going to want to hold? American companies or non-American companies? I think this could potentially give us the biggest bull market we've ever seen. I mean, without the tax cuts and without the regulation and all of that, just this in itself is insane, insane.

Speaker 1: 13:32

They have to sell in order to pay off the debt. They don't have to, but balance you. They can balance it out right, they don't have to have to sell the debt. If the debt costs you only four percent, actually why would you sell it? You might actually want to raise some more debt because you can invest it and your assets just go up. It's like a company right, they have borrowings and then they have assets, right, and you want to balance that. So you can do this by simply making the assets become more important, more valuable. So I think it's a smart move. I don't understand why I don't. I mean, the problem, of course, with countries running these is that most countries are run by complete inept idiots and therefore they're going to do a terrible job at running sovereign wealth funds. So you're going to have to set up some sort of rules there or actually hire some smart people and make sure there isn't, you know, corruption and kleptocracy and the usual thing that happens here.

Speaker 1: 14:23

Um, felix, our president, good god, no, thank you. Um, maybe, winston, but I certainly I no interest. I used to be very political when I was young. I was a member of a political party and all that sort of thing, but no, thank you. I think politics is a huge waste of time. I think it's much, much better to sit at home and chill and relax and watch your money grow, which is what the intention is here.

Speaker 1: 14:44

This here is crypto czar David Sachs. This here is crypto Tsar David Sachs, and David is going to speak today at 2.30 pm, new York time, and he's going to talk about guess what cryptocurrencies. So we're hoping for some sort of bigly announcement which will make Bitcoin go through the roof, because we still have those MSTR leap call options open and also some bitcoin options. Open, guinea pig says. But this is driving up prices to demand, not creating any extra true wealth. Welcome to the stock market, my friend.

Speaker 1: 15:27

We don't create value. We don't create um products. We don't create products. We don't sell anything. We just invest in things that we think are going to go up and when they do, we become very, very wealthy. It's very silly, really, but it's a thing that's been around for millennia, really, and it works incredibly well, so I'd recommend you learn it. So watch the masterclass down below. That's really all I'd say to that. We need more winston. We definitely need more winston. Actually, I just came home. I went up for dinner and normally play with him at night. I came home and he just looked at me with this very sad face and said you went out and you didn't play with me, so I might quickly and we kind of spoil about a bit.