Market Insights and Investment Strategies

Speaker 1 0:00

And welcome to this pre-market live stream on the last day before the new president gets anointed on this coming Monday , and in my humble opinion , it is the opportunity of all opportunities to be grabbed with both hands . You know , both hands on the horn sort of type thing . So I want to walk you through a couple of crucial pieces of information that mainstream media doesn't really cover because it's a little too complex . And then I also want to show you a trade that I'm looking at that would make us three thousand percent plus . So you want , you want to make three thousand percent plus . If you want to make three thousand percent plus , put a one in the chat or a or a thumbs up or some sort of happy emoji , and and let me see , let me see that you'll actually listen here and then you can hear me and it all makes sense and that sort of thing . So I shall be sharing my screen with you and I'll show you a couple of key bits of info here . Scott says one , one one . Okay , I love you , scott . Brilliant , I just teased it there on the screen , but I actually want to start here with a couple of really important things . So first of all , as we are live . The market looks pretty green . The only thing that's going down is fat , apparently . Okay , lots of ones here Love to see it , love to see it . Love the enthusiasm , guys , brilliant . So that is good news . Now , how do we make money ? Well , the first thing is always to understand where is the market right now . And the market moves in what ? In patterns ? Right , like millions of studies have shown again and again that the market CNN has ever created , and it is called the fear and greed index . And where are we right now on the fear and greed index ? We can still afford the D . Well , we're down here , and down there is pretty low if you go back over the last two years or so . So when was the last time we were this low ? Do you remember October , november , 2023 ? Just to give you a refresher , the Americans thought , oh my God , we're heading into a recession . No , that was sort of the general sentiment , and the market dipped . It dipped quite significantly actually , and you can see that on the little chart here . The red line is what the red line is the S&P 500 , right , so it dipped quite significantly . And what happened then ? Well , rather predictably , the market rallied . Right ? What about in April of this year Similar story and then the market rebounded . What about in August this year ? That was the Japanese . We rebounded and right now we're back at that level .

Speaker 1 2:47

So the general idea of buy when others are fearful , which is sort of the Buffett mantra , definitely works most of the time and therefore we're in that place . That's quite happy , isn't it ? So if you want to buy long-term stocks , I just bought some stocks today . I bought essentially bought a essentially QQQ NASDAQ , and I'm going to buy some more individual stocks a little bit later when the market's open . So that's good news , right ? Does that make sense ? Does that make sense ? If that makes sense , again , put a one in the chat here so I can see it makes sense . If it makes no sense to you whatsoever , put a three martin . I love what you just wrote . Your five , seven year old nephew thinks you can print money . Well , you sort of can tell him he needs to become the chair of the fed and then he can . What's the second thing ? Okay , a lot of ones there , brilliant . Okay , I'm glad this is making some sense .

Speaker 1 3:48

The second thing to look at is when do people hedge their portfolio ? What is hedging ? Hedging is basically buying insurance . Now , if you drive a car , you buy insurance the moment you buy the car . If you live , you basically buy health insurance . But with investments people only really buy insurance when the market's already dropping , so when everybody is already fearful . So they don't do it in advance . And it's a weird human psychology that with money they think they don't need insurance . But that's a whole nother story . I have a whole video on how you can basically insure your portfolio for free and there's a little indicator and it's called PCE and it basically tells you how many insurance policies have traders taken out or investors taken out . And right now we have popped up pretty nicely , pretty big move up here , and that generally also correlates with a dip and the dip was probably the dip we've already seen there's another indicator to sort of say OK , we know all the hedges , all the guys who insure their portfolio , are always late to the party . So now that they've done that quite a lot , the likelihood of going up seems greater than it going down , and that's kind of the way we look at the market here . So that's pretty useful .

Speaker 1 5:09

Real men wear pink , absolutely , absolutely . I'm wearing a nice pink linen shirt today . Well , I'm in a place where I'm about 100 yards from the beach , so you kind of have to wear something like this . I actually took a passport , so this is another one here . I often talk to you about algo funds , right , and what do I say algo funds do ? It's sort of a weird thing that most people don't understand . So if you don't , again , you're a normal human being .

Speaker 1 5:39

But algo funds typically trade sort of what the chart says . They kind of follow the emotion , and a lot of that is something called volatility you might call it fear and they sell when volatility goes up and they have sold a lot . So you can see on this little chart here they've sold about 100 billion in US stocks over the last month , which is quite a lot , isn't it ? And that's usually about as much as they sell . And then , typically , what do they do ? They start buying again , and it might seem a bit retarded that they sell and buy where the flows of the market , but that's the way they're programmed , right , so blame the human who came up with it , but that's sort of the structure over there , so that's positive . So , again , it means it's more likely that we're going to go up than down . So I think we've dipped quite significantly .

Speaker 1 6:39

And then here is the big one . This is sort of the Rolls Royce of the stock market , the thing that actually drives it . I don't know why I said Rolls Royce . It's the engine of the stock market and it's not earnings , it's not profits , it's not pension funds or Black Rock or anything like that . It's just good old-fashioned buybacks . And buybacks are what Buybacks are simply companies' buybacks .

Speaker 1 7:07

It basically is companies buying their own stock , and why do they do that ? It's a way of returning money to shareholders , and if they're paid to pay you a dividend , then people like me would grumble . I guess I'd be like there's tax on that , there's a holding tax on this , dividend tax on that . I don't want to pay that . Can you just do a buyback ? And that way I don't get a tax bill . That's basically why they do it . So that's seasonal , and this blue chart here shows you how seasonal that is . Why is it seasonal ?

Speaker 1 7:43

Us regulation does not allow you to buy your own stock just in the two weeks or so before your earnings I can't remember the exact date , but something like that . So if you're about to report your company's earnings , you can't buy just before that . So you go into this blackout window where we stop buying stocks or , like those guys , stop buying , and what that means is that you get this drop off here where we are right now . So right now we're here and what happens ? Well , give it a couple more days , another week or so , and you're going to start to see the buybacks coming back with a vengeance to that level up here , and that will be very supportive for the market . So we've kind of almost survived . Now we're still in the middle of the blackout , but give it another week or so and we're starting to start to come out of it , and then we will have survived .

Speaker 1 8:37

The riskiest part of this quarter . Any secure men wear pink . Yes , why not ? Pink's a great color . Every quarter Indeed , yes . So , okay , you guys are paying attention . Brilliant , Does that make some sense to you so far ? So put another one in the chat . If this makes some sense to you , this is useful , this is useful to you . Put it in there , and then I'm going to give you one more and I know I'm hitting you over the head with quite a few chats and then I'll take your questions .

Speaker 1 9:08

We look at your favorite stocks . We look at SoFi and everything that's going on there right now and what the market is doing right now , and then maybe also some real opportunities . And I want to show you that 3,000% trade and ask you a little bit about that . Okay , long-short ratio , what's the story there ? Well , when people go long they're buying , when they're short they're selling . So we want to see okay , brilliant , loving to see all the ones there . Again , it's a thing that goes up and down , and right now it's gone down a lot , which means , again , funds have sold a lot of stocks and we're back to sort of levels we were at in the summer and August .

Speaker 1 9:46

Look at the start for August . We rallied a heck of a lot since August . Shall I show it to you ? Let me show it to you . Here we go , let me open up , say QQQ , this is here in trade vision and you will see , you will start singing . I can see clearly now the rain is gone and all that kind of stuff . This was August . So we dipped . And then look after that . From August we went from 4.30 to now 5.21 . So pretty nice rally up . So that's important to understand also . So we have a lot of reasons why we've kind of feeling quite bullish . So what do you to understand also ? So we have a lot of reasons why we've kind of feeling quite bullish .

Speaker 1 10:29

So what do you do with that information ? Well , you know , I'll just go out and you buy . You know , whatever you invest , you buy the index , whatever you want to do . Obviously , you've got to do your own risk management and so on . But the ultimate question is what are you going to buy ? And would it be nice if you knew what to buy before it went up ? Would be nice , wouldn't it ? Wouldn't it be rather nice if you knew what to buy before it went up ? If you want to buy stuff before it goes up , put a smiley in the live chat here and I'll see that you are interested in what tell you . Okay , cool , I'm starting to see the ones coming in here . Brilliant , okay . So there's two things I would do . First thing I would do is we're just putting out this breakout indicator in Trade Vision and you probably haven't got it yet . It's a very small group so far , but more and more of you are going to get access to that over the next couple of days as we launch it officially , probably early next week . Okay , loving the smileys . Thanks very much .

Speaker 1 11:36

So how are we resizing the charts ? Use a mouse . You can drag , you can scroll , you can drag . You know all sorts of things . So that's one thing . It's actually having a scanner that helps to find them . Now , a scanner , like anything , is going to give you some great things and some not so great

Risk Management and Exit Strategies

Speaker 1 11:54

things .

Speaker 1 11:54

So what's the most important thing when you are buying something ? It's risk management . That's actually where we make money . So , as investors and traders , we make money when we exit , not when we buy . You buy something , you sell something . Where do you make money when you sell ? That's always the point , and even if you're losing money because you're risk managing , that is actually going to make you money . So it's not important well , not as important when you're buying or what you're buying , but it's actually more important when you exit . Having said that , it's much nicer to buy things before they go up , right . So that's definitely a good thing .

Speaker 1 12:31

George , you got the breakouts already , okay , brilliant . I'd love to see that More and more you're getting that rolled out . So first thing is , get yourself a week's trial to Trade Vision if you haven't already FelixFrenzelorg slash , trade Vision Link is down below as well , or TradeVision , it doesn't really matter and that would be the first thing to do . And then you're going to want to ask me okay , this thing here , whatever it is , matrix services say this looks good . And you're thinking , well , look , that was a very nice value there and maybe I should buy that .

Speaker 1 13:02

And the next question is going to be well , but should I buy it ? What are the actual rules underneath this ? How does it actually work ? How does the indicator work ? When should I exit ? At what point do I do something about this ? And that's the difference between hoping and praying and wishing and actually being in control of your portfolio , which is where most of you said you wanted to be . So how do you do that ? Well , very simple . I'll give you the second piece of the puzzle , which is watch the masterclass . If you go to felixfrenzelogcom slash , get free and watch the actual steps . That will give you the rules to finding the breakouts and then also how to manage those breakouts .

Speaker 1 13:36

Now you're what ? Much better off than you were before , right ? And you are starting to get ready to have the best 2025 yet , which is surely what life's all about , right ? Every day should be our most wonderful yet , and every year will hopefully be the most wonderful yet . So I've got mine today , too , brent . Okay , brilliant . More of you guys are getting that rolled out , which is brilliant . Last of the Mohicans says Felix , you've made me over a million dollars in the last four months . Well , that's very , very nice of you to share that with me . That makes my day Brilliant . That's really why I do this and I get that . A million dollars is a pretty extraordinary sum . So congratulations to you , my friend , for learning and knuckling down and making good decisions . But I get so many of these messages , which is why I wake up with a smile every day . It's the funnest thing you could ever do when you are , you know , sort of in retirement , like I am sort of .