Speaker 1: 0:00

If you're wondering what happened to the Santa Rally, this is exactly what happened, but, in all seriousness, we just had one of the worst days of 2024. In fact, we've had two of the worst days of 2024 back to back. Two drops of a percentage point in the S&P that's pretty significant stuff. So in the next couple of minutes, I want to walk you through why this is happening, what's likely to happen next and how we therefore position ourselves with our favorite stocks the Teslas, the Sofas, the Palantirs, the NVIDIAs and so on. So you know what to do's literally one of the worst days of the year. The only one worse was the August dip crash, mini crash caused by Japan's inability to keep you know. Well, they did something really rather stupid. So that's important. Now, what's also happening is this Because on Friday, the market dumped. What happens is that computers algo funds get triggered. So this here is basically an algo fund chart, and algo funds are basically dumb. So they follow an algorithm, clear set of rules that someone's programmed into it and they sell on certain triggers, and those triggers got partially hit on Friday, which means we're starting to see the sell-off from that. And if you look at the chart here, what do you see? Well, you see that down small is that yellow line there that I'm pointing to. So it's not a horror show, it's just a little bit of a sell-off. So that's the first thing that's happening. It's just these algo funds have to dump, so we go down another percent, more of these algo funds get triggered, more of them sell off and that's exacerbating what's going on here, in sort of the general panic around Santa. Now the really important thing is to understand here, and there are a couple of things that I want to explain to you quickly, and maybe they're a little bit more technical than what you're usually used to, but it's just. The people who understand this are better set up because they know what's going on at the end of every quarter and because stocks have outperformed right, so stocks have outperformed bonds.

Speaker 1: 2:32

What happens next? They have to sell stocks. It's an idiotic mechanism by which pension funds make sure that they never really beat the market. So basically, they sell whatever asset class has outperformed and then they go back to their I don't know 60-40 or 50-50 split between bonds and the stock market. Now, whether or not they've sold already, we don't know. They don't have to sell on certain dates. They have a little bit of leeway. But I believe what we are seeing is we're seeing a front running by traders of this pattern that's going to emerge Because everybody knows pension funds have to sell, so why don't we sell before the pension funds sell? That's kind of a smart move if you're a hedge fund or something like that. So that's what the guys are doing there. So that's again a short term negative for the market.

Speaker 1: 3:23

Now next, choppy waters. What do I mean by that? Well, if you go into Trade Vision, which is the platform we built to give you access to institutional-grade data for like 19 bucks a month and there's a seven-day trial as well, you get 60% off if you sign up before the end of the year, and there's a ton of amazing stuff coming up there in terms of features. You can track your portfolio and all that kind of stuff, which will usually cost you three times what we're charging for it, because we want to make good data available to you, because that's ultimately what makes us good investors. And what do you see? Well, you see the support line at 5,900?.

Speaker 1: 3:57

Below that, things get very, very, very choppy. Why? Because the market makers have to sell below 5,900. And if you look at yesterday, you see that tail on that candle. That means we were below it quite a lot. Now we slightly managed to claw our way above it again. That's the market makers probably buying, but we drop below that. Things get pretty interesting and they could get pretty dicey. So does that mean, oh my God, god, run and sell and that kind of thing? Well, I would probably draw a line under the recent lows here. I mean, we cannot change that line color actually, which is a cool little new feature we just added. So let's say, you make another purple line, we can make it a little bit, make it dashed or something like that. So somewhere around there, if we drop below these recent lows, then I would certainly hedge, I would certainly protect my portfolio, stop loss, maybe even cut, kick in something like that.

Speaker 1: 4:52

And also note we're below. See the yellow line up here. Let me get a yellow pen for you so you can see this a bit more clearly. See that yellow line there, that one. This, is it right? I'm just drawing over it so it's a bit clearer for you.

Speaker 1: 5:10

That's the 50-day moving average line and we're below that and that's a bad sign. It's a bad signal. A lot of traders. A lot of algo funds will use it as an exit, as a risk management point of position. So this is all what's feeding into the market here. So it's just like stuff goes down. Stuff goes down a bit more.

Speaker 1: 5:23

But how does that affect individual stocks? Well, if you look at something like SoFi, let's pull up the stock chart here for you. It had 2% yesterday. Is that a big move? Honestly no. And if you look at the pattern here that we've got, we're just going sideways and that's okay.

Speaker 1: 5:41

It's called a little bit of exhaustion, a little bit of fatigue. You know everyone's on holiday and everyone's still a bit hungover from Christmas or whatever. We are flirting and making out with a support line at 1550. So we're very, very close to that. You want to stay above that, ideally Drop a little bit below it, like we did here, but generally speaking, we want to be above that. But it's not the end of the world and there are a couple of fundamental things I think we need to separate from the short-term end-of-year panic and also bear in mind most people are literally on holiday. So if there's one big seller, there are very, very few people actually trading. It means he has a bigger impact on the market. So just these last few days of the year are always very choppy, like any holiday season, thanksgiving weeks all these weeks tend to be a little bit choppier.

Speaker 1: 6:27

But what's coming up for SoFi? Well, we have a more bank friendly president coming in. And why does that matter? Because it really does matter. I mean, the major Wall Street banks have literally just sued the Fed. That's how loggerheads they've been and that's going to change right. So the regulation is going to be more friendly. We are expecting two to three rate cuts in 2025.

Speaker 1: 6:53

The economy slows down. There's some signals for that, because unemployment is coming in much higher since Biden forgot to manipulate the data as much and wage growth is slowing and also credit card delinquencies people not paying on time is through the roof. So it's a lot of indicators that are saying, ok, maybe the economy is slowing a little bit and that could bring us more rate cuts, and that would again, all be good from SoFi, so SoFi. By the way. All their predictions are basically baked in a horrible economy, no rate cuts and just like the worst scenario possible. And that's how Anthony Noto sandbags, and that's why he typically beats the market expectations again and again and again, and therefore you know we have these big, beautiful breakouts, like we had here on 14th of October. That's a classic textbook breakout.

Speaker 1: 7:43

You could have gotten into SoFi at about $9.30. You'd be up what? 50, 60% right now, right, which would be pretty sweet. So how do you learn how to spot those breakouts? You go and watch the what, the masterclass, indeed, and it's down below. It'll take you 30 minutes and it'll be way more valuable than this video, because it'll improve what your than this video, because it'll improve what your skills and your skills are. What's going to make you into a better investor in 2025 and beyond? Not this week's news and my intention here is to kind of calm you down and give you some guidance on what's actually going on out there but way more important is that you actually have rules and patterns and you can spot them. And that's why I put that masterclass out there for you, because we want to make a million people financially free patterns. I still like the way SoFi looks here. I think, fundamentally, this looks very, very good for them.

Speaker 1: 8:36

And then, yes, of course, also the end of student loan madness. I was going to write moratorium. I don't know how to spell that, so I wrote madness, but that's happening as well. So refinancing of student loans will be a huge thing. Refinancing because Trump isn't going to forgive debt. You can't forgive debt, you're just making somebody else pay for it. So that's happening Now.

Speaker 1: 8:59

What about a thing like Palantir? Let's pull up the stock chart for Palantir here also for you. Down 2.4% yesterday. Is that the end of the world? Probably not. No, I don't think it is. But you see that blue line I put in here In fact I'll change the color on that. I'll make that a. What should we make it? Sort of a bright green line there.

Speaker 1: 9:22

That was the upwards trend from the most recent breakout, down here at about $48. We're now below that, that trend line, as you can see. You can extend that a little bit, but you know we're definitely below that we are. Where are we compared to the 50-day moving average? That's down here 20. We're still above that. So it's still looking pretty decent. We're still above the support line here at 76, which is where the market makers are positioned, essentially where the market is positioned, and that's very important. So we bounced off that. So again, these indicators are insanely useful. So go to tradevisionio or felixfriendsorg, slash tradevision Links down below and you get yourself that insane 60% off and it's a week's trial, so it's a risk-free endeavor for you. So, yeah, it's just a little sideways wobble on very, very low volume. So I wouldn't, you know, look at the volume down there. It's not really a lot going on, so I wouldn't count too much into it.

Speaker 1: 10:16

And what are the catalysts for Palantir going into the new year? Well, there is Trump, then there is Elon, and then there is Trump, and then there is Elon, and then there is Okay, continue, right. So yeah, the US government is going to massively overhaul the way it's run, and who's going to be able to do that if not Palantir? And Elon seems to be a fan. He knows Palantir very well. The Panasonic plant that makes all of his batteries well, they're a Palantir customer. I think Tesla is a Palantir customer.

Speaker 1: 10:52

It's just they don't want to admit it because they were sort of like he didn't really want to be associated with the whole military side of things. He didn't really want to be associated with the whole military side of things, but he seems to be changing his tune on that because SpaceX is definitely used by the military and they are looking at potentially forming a partnership with Palantir and SpaceX and a bunch of defense contractors to become the new defense contractor out there, and I made some videos on that recently if you want to dive more deeply into that. But just generally, if you want to overhaul the US government, you need AI data software that actually works. Palantir is the only one really out there that's doing that. That's actually proven. That's already got contracts with the military and the IRS and the SEC and so many agencies and that's going to, I think, massively expand. So I think that's the big thing there.

Speaker 1: 11:35

The military is changing from essentially a modernized World War II military where it's how many tanks have you got, how many planes have you got, how many pilots have you got, to something that's going to be autonomous. So it's drones in the air, that's self-driving tanks and vehicles, self-driving ships, self-diving submarines, and everything will be without people near the front line, because it's just madness to send people into harm's way. And maybe you'll think, okay, it'll cause more wars and all that. Maybe, maybe it will, maybe it won't, who knows, but it's happening and it's the biggest overhaul in technology that we've seen in the military. Well, probably since World War I, when the Germans invented the tanker, the panzer which is the tank. So suddenly things were getting mechanized. Before it was horses. So this is the same kind of thing here. And Palantir is at the very, very center of that. Like it or loathe it, I think they'll do very, very well out of it. That's my view, at least.

Speaker 1: 12:32

And what about Tesla? Well, let's have a look at Tesla. And it dropped a little bit yesterday, our Tesla position, down a couple of percentage points. Did I sell? No, I did not, minus 3%. And I tell you what? Support is now 375.

Speaker 1: 12:47

Let me have a look where that was before. It was a little higher, wasn't it? Yeah, it was at 435. We're hiding that a little bit. There, aren't we? Small? We're hiding that a little bit, there, aren't we? Small screen, so a little bit lower, but it's also where we were on Christmas, so it's not really a huge shift, it's just a little bit of a dip.

Speaker 1: 13:05

So what are we seeing? Well, we're well above the support. We're well above the 50-day moving average line. We're basically at the bottom here of this whole curve. Let me see if I'm allowed to draw a line. I'm still mastering how to use some of our drawing tools, as you can clearly see here and we can right-click on that. We can now change the line color here. So let me make that a purplish line there for you. That's sort of the support zone. It's a little higher than the line I put in. So that's sort of, if you want to be cautious and careful, that's probably where I would draw a stop loss, somewhere like that.

Speaker 1: 13:42

But you know, stocks rally, the next pattern is exhaustion and then the next pattern is what? Well, we don't know until we see the move. So we wait for that move, we wait for that signal and that's when we act. In the meantime, we just sit on our hands and do very, very little. But again, step back a moment and then, fundamentally, you can see him on the laptop here and then, fundamentally, what's happening over there?

Speaker 1: 14:02

Well, there is Elon and Trump again, because Elon is basically in charge of the government and dubbed as the vice president and all of that. Yeah, and I'd rather have him in charge than pretty much anybody else. But what is he going to do? Well, he's going to make FSD legal as in no supervision required. I think that's going to happen in 2025. We're also going to see just roadblocks removed from every kind of permit and every kind of regulation that's getting in the way. So that could be good for his energy business. We're going to see, I think useful stuff moves towards robotics, but even if any, all that stuff doesn't happen, it's just FSD. If we're just getting robo taxis in 2025, which I believe we will on a fairly major scale then Tesla will be by far the leader there and they're going to make a bucket load of money and Wall Street's going to realize and go oh, hang on, these guys don't sell cars anymore. They bring in a recurring revenue stream every single day from cars. Oh, why don't we value them like I don't know what, netflix or Uber or some sort of subscription service, like a CRM or a Microsoft, and that's the story there. So that's why I'm feeling very, very bullish on Tesla and continue to into 2025.

Speaker 1: 15:22

Least but not last, nvidia. Well, if you look at Nvidia here in TradeVisionio, then it's actually up 0.3% yesterday. And what is that saying to you? Well, the first thing it's saying to you is I wish I had Felix's resistance lines, because look, look what the high of the day was. It was exactly 140, you see, and that was exactly the high of the day. So this stuff works. Why does it work? Because we've got the data, so we share the data with you. This is the stuff that hedge funds are looking at.

Speaker 1: 15:58

And what do I say about NVIDIA? Well, the stocks underperformed the market this year, massively underperformed the market. And that's quite a good thing because, with Blackwell coming out with capacity constraints being removed, with every major cloud computing company out there Amazon, google, microsoft, you name it, tesla, everybody, meta, everybody they're all saying we're going to buy and spend more on AI chips in 2025 than in 2024. So why is the stock flat? Someone tell me that it's just. People are like, yeah, it's going up so much it's going to go up anymore. Yeah, that's bollocks. Stocks can go up a lot more as long as the growth is there, and the growth trajectory, to me, still looks there.

Speaker 1: 16:41

Of course, this is my opinion, but you've got to come to your own conclusion. But I'm just seeing this as sort of like a bit of an exhaustion pattern and I would wager that the next move is going to be up, not down. Of course, I could be wrong on that. Do I act on that? I act on that when we start to see the move. So what's the move we break out through these highs here and we do that on great big juicy volume and then ka-ching, we make a lot of money, which is really what the game plan is here. So that's Nvidia. Basically, it's a lag out play. At this point, they lagged the market, so it's a lag out and therefore it's a good chance that semis are going to make a nice rebound there in 2025. So anything else, I think we're going to have an amazing 2025.

Speaker 1: 17:26

So don't get scared by the wobble in January, maybe even a little bit longer. It just depends on how messy things get in Washington around regulation and tax cuts and all that stuff, and I believe eventually we're going to come out with a more pro-business friendly environment and therefore a more pro-business friendly environment and therefore a more pro-Wall Street environment. Just think about it All the people that Trump's put in government are basically billionaires. What do they all have A shitload of money in the market, and these are venture capital guys. They're going to want to make their money work for them. People, at the end of the day, no matter how wonderful they are, they're somewhat selfish and they want their assets to go up. How do assets go up? Well, you make the US a more business-friendly place. So I think that's what's happening and therefore I'm very, very bullish on the year.

Speaker 1: 18:10

But yes, there will be a wobble in Jan, most likely. We can make money out of that, for sure. But we should definitely do something in terms of risk management automate. I'm not a fan of the bag holding thing. I'm not a fan of the hold till death, do us part sort of thing.

Speaker 1: 18:24

But if you're a new investor, yeah, there are much worse things you can do than buy the index. Absolutely. Just buy it every month or every week, or however you can, and don't stop, especially when the market's going down. That's the time when everything is on a discount and that's when you make more money. If you want to move beyond that, get a little bit better informed and actually become a money manager which, by the way, you can do in like two hours a week so the time thing is not an excuse. Like everybody's got two hours a week, just watch two hours a week less Netflix and watch your money, and it's way more fun than some idiotic series out there, because you then go back and say, darling, I'm up. You know, x percent this year Isn't that amazing? And she's going to give you a nice big hug and your friends are going to look at you and go. That guy's smart and it's fun and life just gets better.

Speaker 1: 19:10

So if there's only one thing you do right now, you could click away and just watch another video and a lot of you will do that and you're just going to get your head filled with something else. Or you could actually take the next 20, 30 minutes and learn a skill that improves what's up here and improves your knowledge, your skills, your ability, for the rest of your life. How do you do that? Go to phoenixpensorg, get free, watch that master class, take notes, please, and over the holidays, look at some charts, start implementing a little bit, play with it and you will get to a place where you're like, wow, this stuff really works. This is kind of how do I not know this? And that needs to be me.

Speaker 1: 19:50

So I wish you the best start to 2025. I wish you the most amazing year yet. You deserve it, and the only way you're going to get there is by doing something a little bit different. The definition of madness is doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Then you're just lucky because the market's going up or the government does this or does that. I believe we can control our outcomes, our destiny, and the way we do that is by becoming more skilled. So I wish you a wonderful, wonderful, wonderful year ahead. Thank you so much for 2025. It's been amazing, it's been super fun. I love making these videos. I love sharing my investing trading journey with you, because it's a lot more fun doing it with hundreds of thousands of people than just me with Winston. So I appreciate you and I hope to see you on the next one.