Speaker 1: 0:00

Felix here and welcome to this echoey live stream pre-market. I'm dressed appropriately for what's about to come. No, seriously, I want to walk you through the real reasons I'm bullish and what I'm bullish on, and take a little bit of the fud and the fear out of the story, because I think that's going to be very helpful. And this is all information from the big investment banks that they put out every single day. They didn't put it out to you because you're not their client. They put it out to their institutional traders and so on. And Winston's luckily has a, has a direct line to the, to the info source. So that's what we're going to do. You are super welcome to ask questions. That's what we do this live every day. Only after you've destroyed the like button. Obviously you wouldn't want to do it any other time, right, and let's get started, right? So I'm going to share my screen with you.

Speaker 1: 0:55

Here we go, and this is the chart. That's kind of freaking people out. You might be going. I haven't seen this chart, I'm not freaked out yet. Well, give it a few minutes, I'll get you there. Freaked out yet? We'll give it a few minutes, I'll get you there.

Speaker 1: 1:05

So basically what it's saying if I can get a color, is that that's 2024. So that orange zigzag design line there is 2024. And over the last I don't know a hundred years or so. The market goes up in between. This sort of zone, right. So it goes up or down over the year. We've had a very, very, very, very good year so far. So we're really at the top end of top years. It's a spectacular year. We had a spectacular year last year too, but this one really is going for it and therefore people are saying, well, it must go down, right, because it can't be this good forever. Well, let me walk you through why. That is quite possibly complete nonsense.

Speaker 1: 1:48

Valuations right. If you're a long-term investor and I'm both I'm a long-term investor, I'm a trader. Actually, I bought one stock today. I normally am a bit more generous on Mondays, but today I wasn't. I'll tell you what that is in a moment as well.

Speaker 1: 2:01

And the forward PE is sort of if you're going to look at PE, don't. If you're going to look at forward PE, it gives you a little bit more indication. And why is that? Because we're looking at what are next year's profits going to be like compared to today's share price, and that's a little bit more accurately how Wall Street actually values stocks. And right now, the Magnificent Seven are valued at 30 times profits, which is not cheap. I mean, if you think about that, that's about a 3.3% yield. If you thought they'd stop growing Now, if you believe they're going to stop growing, then that's actually still quite good. And we were higher right In 2020, in 2021, in 2022, we were higher, so we could go higher right In 2020, in 2021, in 2022, we were higher, so we could go higher right. And the S&P without the Mach 7 is only trading at 19x, which is, you know, sort of not that exciting, A little bit over where we were previously, but, you know, not massively expensive.

Speaker 1: 3:01

Oh yes, if you want to learn how to spot those big, beautiful, shiny breakout stocks before they happen, wall Street also has an answer for that. There are a couple of rules you need to know, and those rules have been around since the 70s in one way or another. I've tweaked and adapted them somewhat to fit what happens today in the market, and you can learn it completely for free and you can just join and watch the masterclass. You can do it right now. You can say this live stream sucks, I'm going to go learn something in the masterclass. I'd be very happy if you did that. You would, of course, miss out on all the fun here. But there we go. If you want to learn that with me, live. Also today, at 8 pm, new York time, I'm running a free beginner bootcamp and I'll teach you those very rules. It'll be live. I'll walk you through it. We'll look at some real charts, we'll look at some real trades and everything else. So if you can join me at 8 pm, new York time, join me, felixrenzelhockcom. If you can't watch the master class Now, the next thing I always look at to get a little bit of a feel for where is the market is positioning.

Speaker 1: 4:11

Has everybody already bought all the stocks? In which case, who's left to buy? And therefore we can't go much higher. So right now we are here. And is that super high? Well, it's not super low, so we could go higher. And this is tech we're talking about. Right, there is a little thing happening in tech right now, called AI, which I think is going to make a lot of people, a lot of money, especially those big tech companies.

Speaker 1: 4:45

And look at this. This is probably the only useful thing that CNN has put out in the last two decades. It is the fear and greed index. And where are we? Yes, we're like sort of agnostics. We're neutral. So we're neither excited we're neither fearful, we're just boring right down the middle, neutral right, which is basically what 700 of you are who just decided not to hit the like button. And that's your prerogative, it's your choice. It is a free country. Well, sort of.

Speaker 1: 5:21

Now. What about this? Stocks are now up for 20% plus for two years in a row. 40% plus value over two years that seems extraordinary, right, that means it can't last. What goes up must come down, sort of thing. Well, not true. 40% plus rally over two years that seems extraordinary, right, that means it can't last. What must you know? It goes up must come down, sort of thing. Well, not true. The four previous times where the stock market went up 20% plus for two years running since World War II, what happened the next year? We went up 2.6%, 31%, 26% and 90%. So it's a pretty good chance that after two glorious years, you get a third glorious year. So you could be cautious. But stocks going up is rarely a reason to be cautious. So let me see what happens. I'm going to chat here. Hello, there to London.

Speaker 1: 6:10

Paul is in Russia. I don't get spooked by a missile that hit you know something, a cow shed or something. Um, just a load of nonsense and noise out there. Really, uh, this is morgan stanley. Um, I pay a little bit more attention to morgan stanley than to russian missiles actually american missiles hitting something in russia. Allegedly, they are saying the s&p is going to hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. That's nine percent from where we are right now. And why? Deregulation, lower taxes? Um, that's it really, trump? Basically, that's what they're saying Trump, trump, yeah, so that's pretty good, right? Excuse me, slightly, apologies, slightly itchy throat today. That might curtail the length of this live stream. Yeah, quite seriously. Okay, I should probably go see somebody about that, shouldn't I? Well, actually I want one of you to come and see me.

Speaker 1: 7:46

I posted this today on the community post and I shall try to speak a little bit more quietly to save the vocal cords. We're hiring our Trade Vision team, which is the app that we built, which is insanely useful. I'm looking for someone to run our social media, especially Twitter, but X, I should say, but also Instagram, tiktok and so on. So if you love financial news and you love shouts and stalks and the whole thing. Literally just send me an email. I'd love to see your existing social account. That's really what I'd love to see. You don't actually necessarily have to be a super expert at this, but I'd love to see your existing social account. That's really what I'd love to see. You don't actually necessarily have to be a super expert on this, but I'd love to see you having some passion on the subject.

Speaker 1: 8:30

Oh God, here comes the Russian nonsense. Don't get distracted by that stuff. There's one thing you can look at if you are distracted by any news like that Open the VIX. That's the fear index, and it's at 17, which basically says go back to sleep. Forget about the whole Russia nonsense. It's complete nonsense.

Speaker 1: 8:46

The war's going to stop when Trump gets in. The whole thing was only fought to make US arms manufacturers a lot of money. Really, so that's going to stop. They're going to get their money in another way. Money, really, so that's going to stop. They're going to get their money in another way. So I really wouldn't be too concerned about that if you were in the Ukraine. Obviously, that's a different story. You have to be concerned about it, but most of us are not. So, yeah, drop me a message if you need somebody.

Speaker 1: 9:09

The Russians have poisoned Felix. Yes, exactly, honey ginger tea. That is actually a very good idea. This is barely a live stream. I like that too, ben idea. This is barely a live stream. I like that too, ben. I think. As the mug of warm water runs out, so will this live stream. But let me give you a quick view of where we are right now. It looks a little gloomy this morning. I wouldn't be too worried about it. It's a little bit of profit-taking, a little bit of saber-wrestling there from the Russians and a bit of well, you know what's going on here. Nvid, nvidia is green pre-earnings, which is good. Walmart reported pretty decent numbers. Where was it? Here it is. People are spending a bit more and, yeah, upper-income households are spending a bit more at Walmart, which, you know, not necessarily the most wonderful thing in the world, but again, not a terrible thing to do.

Speaker 1: 10:07

I'm Ukrainian. Trump isn't going to stop anything. Well, you'll see, my friend, the Ukrainians can't fight a war without American weapons, so they'll be at the table negotiating before you can say stop the war. And I know you're in the middle of it and you get very different news from maybe some of the things that we see, but wars are only ever done for profit. It's nothing to do with anything else. The Americans want control over your natural resources and they now have an excuse, and they've managed to do that by indebting you forever to the US. It's a very smart move, but that's the way it works. So you think that you're a friend and ally.

Speaker 1: 10:45

Well, you know, this is exciting. We're going to get options trading on Bitcoin. Isn't that what we just needed? I think it is actually what we needed. I've been looking for a way to do that, and so the only people who were offering it so far were people through a Dubai entity owned by a Panama company, which I wasn't that keen to send money to. So this is going to be very exciting. From Thursday it's Tuesday actually We'll be able to trade options on a Bitcoin ETF called iBit, which could be pretty cool. Can someone give me the email to apply? Samuel, here it is. Felix at GoToAcad, goat academyorg, my friend. I'll put it in the chat as well felix at goat academyorg. Um, there we go.

Speaker 1: 11:32

Love to have someone on the on the team who's just like gonna really enjoy making cool content and engaging people and sharing our indicators and knowledge and quite quality data and everything else, and just getting more people to you know, financial freedom, which is ultimately what this is all about. What do we do on a day like this? For Mr Moose? I appreciate that you can obviously also share it. If you know somebody who's good at this, do please forward it. I'd appreciate that. Just take a screenshot and forward it and we'll find someone amazing and I thank you for it.

Speaker 1: 12:04

So what do we do about something like Tesla today? Well, it looks pretty good, doesn't it? I mean, it keeps going one way or one the other, and I should become clean. I did buy a fair bit of Tesla stock today, actually by today, well, by today. Well, I buy something every Monday. Usually, I buy more than one things, and I just think the Tesla story.

Speaker 1: 12:25

Did you see who's getting appointed as transport secretary in the US, sean Duffy? I want to say Very, very pro EVs, very, very pro self-driving. So I think the US is just going to remove all the regulatory hurdles there for Tesla to shine and do something amazing. So, slightly down, nothing to worry about that. It was still a gap up yesterday, actually, which is pretty impressive. This is another one that's quite impressive Finance of America, foa.

Speaker 1: 12:57

I saw one of you posted that. Are you in on that trade? I hope so. Look at that yesterday, 27%. And why do I say that? Because I called this a buy at $9 and a bit. I think $9.25 is my entry, which is down here, which was the classic trigger for a breakout. And if you want to learn how to spot those breakouts, join the live bootcamp in literally 11 or 12 hours. Link is down below, and if you can't join that, then well, there's also a link in the description for a masterclass. So we are now up well over 100% on this, which is very sweet, right, which is, yeah, actually we're what? Are we at? 300, 200% up now?