Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream. The Fed is just. I was going to look for a polite way of putting this but put a bit of a bit of a dampener on things. I would say we had a very, very nice green pre-market and then Fed expectations came out and everything's kind of just turned around. But there is a bit more to that story that'll help us make money over all. You know tech stocks wobbling a little this morning, but our goal here is always to make you the best informed investor out there, so you know exactly what's going on and so you know how to make more money, which is really, of course, what the point is here.

This is the story that's tanking the pre-market here. Since that's out, it's basically Federal Reserve officials like Tom Barkin saying the Fed has time to assess if the economy is normalizing or softening in a way that require action. And a large majority of economists you know the bumbling fools are typically wrong are saying that we're not going to get a jumbo cut. So we're not going to get a jumbo cut. So we're only going to get quarter percent cuts, maybe three this year, but no big cuts, and I'm actually with them on that. I think the Fed wants to be seen to be in control, calm and collected and not panicking, and I think large rate cuts would be a little bit more on the panicking front. And they like being too late with their action. So after you've smashed the like button, we're going to continue with the story. Otherwise, of course, we won't. I'll have a strop, I'll have a fit sit in a riot, maybe. How are you Brits enjoying your riots? Well, here is something from Goldman's desk Goldman Sachs, the lovely investment bankers with a big, warm, fuzzy heart. They're saying OK, the VIX, the fear index spike, has only happened two times before, in 2008 and in 2020 during COVID. So, oh my God, the world's about to end. But then he says we don't get the sense. Anything sinister is brewing, where it clearly was in 2008 and in March 2020.

Buying 5% dips in the S&P has proven to be a very sound strategy over time, which is what I said to you on Tuesday. Tuesday, exactly that quote. I actually dug up the chart for it as well, so you could see that, david, from the training the other day. You got me off track. You don't need to apologize, my friend. Always speak your mind. That's what it's all about and if you managed to get me off track. It's a good thing sometimes to get people off track.

Now, positioning, and I'm going to run you through a few data points here and explain them so you're better informed and I take your questions. We look at the live market and everything else sort of the way. We usually roll A little fuzzy. But what does it say to you? It shows you the positioning, as in how much money is typically allocated into tech stocks, and where we are right now is where the red arrow is pointing here. So if I draw a horizontal line across, you can see we're kind of at like you know, we're at levels where we were at here and what happened to the market.

Or let me highlight another one here. There is another one here and another one there. And if I get an orange pen, what's the orange thing? The orange thing is the S&P 500. So that orange thing there is the S&P 500. So from here, nice, rally up. Right From here, nice, rally up. From here, bit of a rally up, bit of a dip. From here on, we had a beautiful rally up.

So when we have this relatively moderate or low positioning, what does it mean? It just means it's money sitting on the sidelines that could buy back into tech, and that's actually quite a good thing. I quite like it when people are not very bullish, because it means that they could turn bullish right, which is what helps us make money. We're momentum traders here, which means we're not particularly smart. We don't have to predict the future. We don't have to study companies or fundamentals or earnings or anything. We're just very, very lazy and we just follow whichever way the wind blows. That's pretty much how we make money. We made $24,000 so far this year on a $30,000 portfolio, which isn't too shabby, I think.

And if you want to learn how we do that, come and join our first ever free, two-day life beginner trading challenge at phoenixfrenzorg slash challenge. That'll be Tuesday and Wednesday evening, new York time, for about two hours each day, and we're going to dive in deep. But I'll assume zero knowledge. So it doesn't matter what you know or how little you know. You will hopefully get some real benefit from that. Know or how little you know, you will hopefully get some real benefit from that. Now there is one slight fly in the ointment Waiter. There is a fly in my soup. Get that reference, let me know it's a bit of a random one. My mind is full of random stuff.

Why do stock markets go up in the long run? Anybody? Why do stock markets go up in the long run? Because earnings per share increase, or we expect them to increase, so we expect the profits generated for each stock that we hold to go up and the amounts by which they grow go up and down with sort of the economic cycle. And here we have 2000. We were very, very bullish then, or 1999, perhaps. Here we had, uh, what is that? 2011, people were very, very bullish. Then. This was 2018, global financial crisis, and so on. This was, uh, 2022, post-covid boom. And right now we're here and and what do you see? Well, we're sort of doing this pattern, aren't we?

And the worry, of course, is that what if we come back down? What if earnings slow? That would be very, very, very bad indeed and that would lead to falling tech stock prices, and that's the only thing, and the only thing, and the only thing that I would be watching here, because that's really what it's all about. What kind of soup. You bastards got ads again. So annoying. Youtube keeps putting ads into these live streams, even though I have them off so annoying. I don't know why they do that. They really do it for special people, apparently, but some of you are very special people, okay. So that's the one thing I would be a little bit cautious of, right? So that's why people are not fully into tech.

Now Bank of America says the market sell-off isn't that bad, as you see in the pre-market. We're only down a bit. We're down a little bit on the tech stocks Google, meta, apple, amazon, tesla, all down. But Nvidia and Microsoft are holding the fort, keeping the barbarians at the gates. So Bank of America is only worried about one thing. They say if the AI leaders you know, your Microsoft, your NVIDIAs falter, then we're in trouble. Otherwise, we're good.

And what does he mean by stock slump below the 200-day moving average line? Well, basically, that's a very, very good thing to track is look at stock chart like this one here from Trade Vision and open up the S&P. You just open up SPY if that's what you look at, or QQQ, for that matter, it doesn't really matter, to be honest. And here's an indicator Put on the moving average 200. And right now that sits at it's that sort of grayish line here sits at $500. Basically, we dropped below that. We're really in trouble. Last time we did that was in October last year. Then we rebounded and before that, presumably here in late 2022. So I think he's right on that one. $500 is sort of where the pain point is at right.

Okay, so there we are, and I'm quite liking this. I'm quite a big fan of tracking what big money is doing, and that doesn't mean that they're smarter than you and me, but they typically have slightly better information and either way, they move the market because they have a lot of money. So I look at hedge funds and they have just started buying tech again and they've basically sold tech for pretty much the whole year. And this has been this whole thing. Like Buffett, right, sell Apple. Who is he selling it to? To retail you and me, yay. And so they offloaded a lot of risk, took a lot of profits on all the AI trades and so on.

If you're wondering why I'm distracted by, I'm back on the electrolytes here, although one of you messaged me today, which is very kind of you to say I should be making them myself at home, and I agree. Actually, I will be buying the individual ingredients and we will be mixing the stuff ourselves, so we don't have to eat the flavors and the stevia and all the weird things that are in there. So, anyway, what does that mean? It means that's a good thing, right? So they're buying the freaking dip, and we saw that on Monday. They were buying the dip while most of retail ran in a panic, and right now, hedge funds are and I know it's a little data heavy here, but I think the data is so important.

That's why I keep torturing you with it is we're right now underweight tech. Well, we, the hedge funds. And what does that mean? It means they've sold so much tech that they own less tech stocks now than they usually do on average over the last couple of years. And that's because they've been offloading them onto you, right, which is how hedge funds like to play. They like to be a little early to the party and then take profits and pass the risky stuff onto you. But what does it mean? Well, when we're at a low, when we're at really, really low levels, like we are right now, there's, of course, a chance that they might want to go back in on the trade, and that would be the thing that actually triggers another proper rally here. So important to watch out for that as well.

Dawn, love the data. Okay, appreciate that. Christian. Healthy salt. Ginger, lemon boiled water will make you great electrolyte drink. Yes, yes, yes, something like that. I think there's a little bit more to it, but, yes, obviously, good salt is a good place to start, like a good sea salt or something. Don't get one of those industrial table salt things which is just. You might as well just drink bleach.

So another thing that was quite exciting yesterday, which has me a little bit feeling a bit more optimistic, it's the Bitcoin crowd. We've had the biggest Bitcoin buy in 29 months. That's quite a long period of time in Bitcoin land. So the last time we were this bullish was here in April 2022. So big drop down for Bitcoin, big recovery. So that's quite positive. It's quite bullish and good to see for, obviously, cryptoland and Mara and everything else.

And there is more positive news the NMI is telling you on Monday that the algorithms traders, the computers that trade, no matter what happens, they will be selling all week. And yes, they have been selling all week and they'll continue to sell all week. But goldman sachs gs now says that the um selling um will be cut in about half. They're still selling, but they're not selling as much, which is good, right. It puts less downward pressure on the market. So, again, important that we hold this 5,254 on the chart, which is let me open the chart for you SPX SPXC. 5,254 is basically here where my dotted line is. So we're about 70 points above that right now. Something like that, so reasonably safe. You want to stay above that, otherwise the selling will accelerate.

What's with the like-watch ratio? I know it's a tough crowd, charlie. It's a very tough crowd. Felix's Chemical Lab. Yeah, exactly that's what we're going to be doing. I like making things myself so I don't have to buy it. So there we are. Come and learn with us how we make money. I will also be live trading for you guys already in the community later today. This should already be scheduled. You should be getting your pings there. If you're in the coaching community and we're going to be doing our first trades of the week post sort of you know, japan kamikaze crash, and if you want to see how we made $24,000 on a $30,000 portfolio so far this year, then $100,000 portfolio so far this year, then come and join me for free next week for a two-day live trading challenge at FelixRensselaercom. I will challenge you and I will teach you our strategies, our automations, our rules and everything else.

Simon, where can we find this data about where they're buying and selling and so on? I'd say here, simon, that's probably a good place to start. It's just in random notes from investment banks that they send out every day, and I sort of find some of them Longriflum there with your funny username. Appreciate your very kind comment. We also have a beginner's channel if you want to check that out. It's linked to in the YouTube channel, where it's just pure education and not just getting started. We're adding two more videos on there in the next couple of days.