Felix Nikolas Prehn: Mortgage Rates Hit 7.45%

We connect the sudden jump in US mortgage rates to the bond market and lay out why the Fed can look tough while inflation pressures keep building underneath. We also explain how a change to the PCE inflation calculation and quiet Treasury liqui...

Felix Nikolas Prehn: Bond Yields Are Rewriting Your Life

The Inflation Trap

We connect a 44-year low in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a larger setup that looks like manufactured calm today and a harsher inflation bill later. We also trace how debt buybacks, private-market megavaluations, and stock market concentra...

Rate Hikes Into An Oil Shock

We lay out why a Fed rate hike during an oil shock can squeeze the economy without fixing the real cause of inflation. We connect the dots between supply-side inflation, government debt refinancing, and why central banks are quietly buying gold...

The Fertilizer Shockwave

A sulfuric acid export ban sounds boring until we trace how it can choke fertilizer supply, reduce food output and collide with $100 plus oil to drive a sharp inflation shock. We connect that real-world squeeze to dollar weaponization, hedge fu...